What will happen to ICE Car values now that EV's are getting closer.

Bachelorplace

With the launch of the new VW ID3 today from £269 a month and a range of 350 miles - it begs the question - perhaps EV's will be here sooner than we think. 
With that said, what will happen to the predicted and actual value of petrol and desiel cars and what are your theories?
One theory is that they will retain a value and devalue as normal because people will always want combustion engines - certainly to a point. 
What will happen to all the trade ins - where will they go and who will buy them?
Is the infrastructure and charge times of the cars going to be ready in time for the ban?
Would you buy ICE again and what would be the last year you would buy an ICE car? 
Do you PCP and thus will continue to PCP until an EV version of your own car comes along at the end of your term?
If you buy and sell used will you change now, at the latest point or mid way between?

AdrianC

The average age of a car at scrapping in the UK is just under 14 years.

onomatopoeia99

Bachelorplace said:

Would you buy ICE again and what would be the last year you would buy an ICE car? 

I'm very likely to continue buying ICE cars after the cut off date, but they won't be new.  I know the "keeping up with the neighbours" types that are all about appearance like having a new car on the drive, which will in time mean electric, but that's not all of us.

My retirement plan in 15 years or so is to build an Ultima with a 1000bhp supercharged V8 engine, if the government doesn't kill the kit car industry with legislation.

colino

As every serious manufacturer is working on their electric versions, the supply isn't going to be a problem, quality will go up and Teslas will be seen to be the shoddy goods they really are.  The reason that engine driven cars are going to be around for a very long time is due to still pretty basic battery technology and the biggest issue - we don't have the infrastructure to charge them.  Scrappage of the dreaded dinosaur juice drinkers will eventually come to get us into them, but not in my lifetime   Don't go holding your breath, CAP will get around to guessing at residual values nearer the time.

SPlatten

Links please ?

Robbo66

Bachelorplace said:

With the launch of the new VW ID3 today from £269 a month and a range of 350 miles - it begs the question - perhaps EV's will be here sooner than we think. 
With that said, what will happen to the predicted and actual value of petrol and desiel cars and what are your theories?
One theory is that they will retain a value and devalue as normal because people will always want combustion engines - certainly to a point. 
What will happen to all the trade ins - where will they go and who will buy them?
Is the infrastructure and charge times of the cars going to be ready in time for the ban?
Would you buy ICE again and what would be the last year you would buy an ICE car? 
Do you PCP and thus will continue to PCP until an EV version of your own car comes along at the end of your term?
If you buy and sell used will you change now, at the latest point or mid way between?

A claimed range of 350 mile and just like their ICE counterparts actually don't get anywhere near this plus the fact that I can fill my car in five minutes and even if you find a compatible fast charger its 30- 40 minutes and considerable more if have to queue.
I travel to Scotland on a regular basis, at least i did, my destination was a little over 400 miles so an EV still wouldn't be any good for me.

Ditzy_Mitzy

What will probably happen, just as a guess, is that the country will end up with two tiers of car ownership.  The middle classes will have electric cars that they can't really afford so will have to keep until they die and the working classes will continue to run an ever aging pool of cars with engines in increasingly Mad Max fashion.  We might even see a return to the hot-rodding and customisation popular in the seventies when nobody had any money.  
The problem for battery operated cars, in the leasing sense, is what happens at the end of the three year deal.  Something like the VW is £40,000 brand new.  That means a significant final payment for the lessee or, more likely, trying to flog the thing at three years old on the second hand market.  If we take a £350 PCM lease cost and add on a couple of thousand we'll get to £15,000 odd paid over three years.  That means needing to try and sell the thing second hand for £28-£30,000 if profit is needed.  The customer may as well buy a new one at that point.  
Potentially, then, we may end up with three and four year old electric cars being sold at losses or rotting on dealer forecourts because nobody's going to pay the enormous prices needed for them to make a profit on the second hand market.  It's anyone's guess really, but if financing the things doesn't work in the commercial sense then they aren't going to be available to the majority of motorists.
Which brings us back to the aging petrol car.  That or some enterprising person will start importing Indian market Suzukis.  

dipsomaniac

Has the sale of a legal product been banned before in this country?  Can you still import a new ice car from abroad after 2030?  What about lorries and motorbikes? 

I would imagine the sale of ev cars will be linked to the number of charging points. As ice sales decrease and ice cars become rarer there value will increase as it does now.

daveyjp

There were similar queries and concerns when CATs were first fitted to cars and leaded fuel removed from sale.  Worries non cat cars would become worthless overnight.

It didn't affect values as there was a gradual transition from non cat to cat vehicles.  As stated average scrapping age of a car is 14 years, but average age of registered UK vehicle is only 8 years old.

The same transition will happen with ICE and EVs.

Mickey666

colino said:

As every serious manufacturer is working on their electric versions, the supply isn't going to be a problem, quality will go up and Teslas will be seen to be the shoddy goods they really are.  The reason that engine driven cars are going to be around for a very long time is due to still pretty basic battery technology and the biggest issue - we don't have the infrastructure to charge them.  Scrappage of the dreaded dinosaur juice drinkers will eventually come to get us into them, but not in my lifetime   Don't go holding your breath, CAP will get around to guessing at residual values nearer the time.

When cars were first invented, not only did we not have the infrastructure to re-fuel them but we didn't even have a decent road network for them to drive on!  Successful new inventions end up creating their own ifrastructure.  It won't be too difficult to add fast charging points to existing filling stations and 15-20 minutes of fast-charging can already add well over 100 miles to an EV's range and I'd guess that's only going to improve.  The oft-quoted 'problem' of flat-owners not being able to charge their EVs at home, or home owners with no parking space having to run power cables across pavements is simply not going to happen - no one ever suggested we should fill up our ICE cars from petrol tanks at home did they?

There are many issues around EVs, but charging infrastructure is not going to be of them.

Mickey666

Robbo66 said:

Bachelorplace said:

With the launch of the new VW ID3 today from £269 a month and a range of 350 miles - it begs the question - perhaps EV's will be here sooner than we think. 
With that said, what will happen to the predicted and actual value of petrol and desiel cars and what are your theories?
One theory is that they will retain a value and devalue as normal because people will always want combustion engines - certainly to a point. 
What will happen to all the trade ins - where will they go and who will buy them?
Is the infrastructure and charge times of the cars going to be ready in time for the ban?
Would you buy ICE again and what would be the last year you would buy an ICE car? 
Do you PCP and thus will continue to PCP until an EV version of your own car comes along at the end of your term?
If you buy and sell used will you change now, at the latest point or mid way between?

A claimed range of 350 mile and just like their ICE counterparts actually don't get anywhere near this plus the fact that I can fill my car in five minutes and even if you find a compatible fast charger its 30- 40 minutes and considerable more if have to queue.
I travel to Scotland on a regular basis, at least i did, my destination was a little over 400 miles so an EV still wouldn't be any good for me.

People will adjust their behaviours, just as they've always done.