What will happen to ICE Car values now that EV's are getting closer.

mgfvvc

colino said:

As every serious manufacturer is working on their electric versions, the supply isn't going to be a problem, quality will go up and Teslas will be seen to be the shoddy goods they really are. 

The "serious" (legacy, if you prefer) manufacturers aren't all taking it as seriously as VW. The big bottleneck is going to be battery supply. Tesla are taking steps to secure their battery supply, Toyota are just whining that there wont be enough batteries.

Tesla quality from the Fremont plant is poor. Early indications are that their Shanghai plant doesn't have the same quality issues. Hopefully the new factories in Berlin, Texas, etc. will have the build quality of the Shanghai plant. Time will tell.

The serious manufacturers are a decade behind Tesla on technology, but most people don't need the level of tech you get in a Tesla. Having said that, it will ensure Teslas keep on selling as long as the build quality is sorted.

AdrianC

Mickey666 said:

When cars were first invented, not only did we not have the infrastructure to re-fuel them but we didn't even have a decent road network for them to drive on!

Not exactly true.
When cars were first invented, fuel was sold through village blacksmiths and chemists, in cans.
And the road network was certainly there - it had been used for many centuries by horses and carts, as well as foot and cycle traffic.

But, of course, the big difference is that people simply didn't expect to be able to travel far, quickly.
Going to the next big town would have been a rare thing, and required a definite reason.
Going to another city on the other side of the country would have simply never ever happened in many people's lifetimes.
Rail started to change that, but it was still not exactly a mass-market daily expectation.
Cars took decades to move from the rich man's toy of the 1890s to the practical daily mode of transport for Joe Average. The Austin 7 in the 1920s? Yes, but not totally. Post-war? More so. But it wasn't until the 1970s and 80s when people REALLY started to become totally car-dependent.

Now, we're used to doing that.
300 mile day return trip half way across the country for a single business meeting? Yup. Easy. People do that day-in-day-out. Their jobs depend on it.
Similar distance for a weekend leisure trip, just because we fancy a change of scene and the weather looks nice? Absolutely! Chuck some clean shreddies and socks in a bag, and I'll find us somewhere nice on AirBnB while you drive.

Mickey666 said:

People will adjust their behaviours, just as they've always done.

Sure they have.

But people are selfish. They change their behaviour easily when there's a benefit in it for them. They're much more reluctant to do so when there's a disbenefit to them, in exchange for a benefit for the greater good.

Ectophile

Ditzy_Mitzy said:

What will probably happen, just as a guess, is that the country will end up with two tiers of car ownership.  The middle classes will have electric cars that they can't really afford so will have to keep until they die and the working classes will continue to run an ever aging pool of cars with engines in increasingly Mad Max fashion.  We might even see a return to the hot-rodding and customisation popular in the seventies when nobody had any money.  
The problem for battery operated cars, in the leasing sense, is what happens at the end of the three year deal.  Something like the VW is £40,000 brand new.  That means a significant final payment for the lessee or, more likely, trying to flog the thing at three years old on the second hand market.  If we take a £350 PCM lease cost and add on a couple of thousand we'll get to £15,000 odd paid over three years.  That means needing to try and sell the thing second hand for £28-£30,000 if profit is needed.  The customer may as well buy a new one at that point.  
Potentially, then, we may end up with three and four year old electric cars being sold at losses or rotting on dealer forecourts because nobody's going to pay the enormous prices needed for them to make a profit on the second hand market.  It's anyone's guess really, but if financing the things doesn't work in the commercial sense then they aren't going to be available to the majority of motorists.
Which brings us back to the aging petrol car.  That or some enterprising person will start importing Indian market Suzukis.  

I think your ignoring the fact thay you can already buy a brand new electric car for under £20000 once you include the government subsidy.  (Though I expect that subsidy will be cut before long).  You can pick up nearly new electric vehicles for maybe £16000, and older ones under £10000.

The price of a basic electric vehicle keeps going down.  By 2020, they will be bought and sold on the second-hand market just like any other cars.

No dealer would be stupid enough to leave cars rotting on their forecourt because the price is too high.  They will buy in the cars at a price that makes a profit for them, and the finance companies will use realistic second-hand vehicle prices when deciding how much to charge per month.

Grumpy_chap

Robbo66 said:

A claimed range of 350 mile and just like their ICE counterparts actually don't get anywhere near this
my destination was a little over 400 miles so an EV still wouldn't be any good for me.

So, that would be a real-range greater than 200 miles, which will require at least one stop on a 400 mile journey. That stop needs to be of sufficient time to recharge the driver, refresh, toilet and eat.  The same time can be used to recharge the car without needing to add to the total journey duration.

Some people may currently try to do that journey non-stop in their ICE, and the vehicle range will support that, but if those people are forced to stop and recharge (themselves plus the car), then that will be a positive contribution to road safety.

In fact, that 400 mile journey is 6 hours at 70 mph, so actual driving time will very likely reach 7 hours assuming some non-trunk roads at either end.  Really, just one stop is optimistic, two would be better from a safety point of view.  Or use the train.

Ditzy_Mitzy said:

The middle classes will have electric cars that they can't really afford 

what happens at the end of the three year deal.  Something like the VW is £40,000 brand new.  That means a significant final payment for the lessee or, more likely, trying to flog the thing at three years old on the second hand market.  If we take a £350 PCM lease cost and add on a couple of thousand we'll get to £15,000 odd paid over three years.  That means needing to try and sell the thing second hand for £28-£30,000 if profit is needed.  The customer may as well buy a new one at that point.  

Really exactly the same as we have now - the middle (and working) classes all driving around in PCP's ICE cars they cannot afford.

And the same issues at the end of the term whether an ICE at the end of PCP, or a car on 50/50 finance, or whatever finance scheme the automotive world dreams up to take us into the electric era.  People simply need to know that these schemes are not dreamt up for our benefit, but to keep the profits rolling in for the manufacturers and the finance companies.  Any stress, depression or other negative outcomes are merely collateral damage, but hopefully someone got to feel good for a while as the shiny new car was delivered and sat on the drive.

Bachelorplace

Ha ha - I liked the Mad Max and the reminder of queuing up at petrol stations because there was only one, and the traveling to other towns what a load of genius journalist writers there are lurking. 
Keeping on prices, because I feel the "add some electric points to the local BP argument" is not going to wash with me, unless the garages re-build their entire land space to make room, motorway services ABSOLUTELY possible. But who's paying for that? I guess it go on the rent of the retailers at the services ah ok. 
Anyhoo
I love the 14 year thing. That makes economising this a bit easier. 
£50,000 becomes zero in 14 years or 168 months which is £297.00 a month - plus interest if borrowing. 
Ok well for me - I have driven all of them and you are right the new ID3 is unlikely to do 350 miles its like the MPG - good point!
I hope its a slow organic process i.e. if you buy a petrol in 2027 provided we are not dead the value may not change because they are not banned from being driven, they are banned from sale. So like maybe there is a market now for a 2007 car for £10k there will be one essentially forever - i.e. until not our lifetime... 
I like the EVs' but their future value is a !!!!!! up. Here is why 
1 - Owner 1 Year 1 - Nice new Tesla.
2 - Owner 2 Year 4 - Nice used Tesla with 4 years left battery cover nice price thank you. 
3-  Owner 3 Year 8 -  If the battery cover has not been extended the car is pretty useless to anyone and the battery could have been abused and thus has 50% range in it. 
Perhaps its not ICE cars with the FV issues its EV'S future values?
Obviously if you buy any EV used not from Tesla for example you are massively risking it. These are unproven items. 

dipsomaniac

Got no problem with people wanting a ev (as long as they pay road tax) but don't force it on the rest of us. In the last 25 years we have really started to perfect the ice - reliable, economic, low emissions etc. This feels like a backward step

born_again

Bachelorplace said:

if you buy a petrol in 2027 provided we are not dead the value may not change because they are not banned from being driven, they are banned from sale. So like maybe there is a market now for a 2007 car for £10k there will be one essentially forever - i.e. until not our lifetime...

But will you be able to afford to pay for ICE fuel, once they start really loading extra tax on it to assist in the move to EV. Might even find that ICE cars get extra purchase tax to promote the mover to EV. Rather than suberdise EV.

Carrot & Stick

dipsomaniac

Once the scales start tipping to ev they will need to load the tax on the ev as the chancellor will be losing up to £40bn in road tax and up to £28bn in fuel duty. The majority always pay the bulk of the taxes

Herzlos

AdrianC said:

But people are selfish. They change their behaviour easily when there's a benefit in it for them. They're much more reluctant to do so when there's a disbenefit to them, in exchange for a benefit for the greater good.

The benefit to them is vastly reduced motoring costs, and the inconvenience is rare (long non-stop journeys). People will get over it pretty quickly and start to enjoy their coffee breaks. EV ranges are now such that the driver will probably need to take a break before the car needs recharged anyway, every 4 hours or so. The only people likely to be really badly affected would be double-crewed vehicles (one resting whilst one drives)  and I'm not sure there are many of them.

Herzlos

Bachelorplace said:

I like the EVs' but their future value is a !!!!!! up. Here is why 
1 - Owner 1 Year 1 - Nice new Tesla.
2 - Owner 2 Year 4 - Nice used Tesla with 4 years left battery cover nice price thank you. 
3-  Owner 3 Year 8 -  If the battery cover has not been extended the car is pretty useless to anyone and the battery could have been abused and thus has 50% range in it. 
Perhaps its not ICE cars with the FV issues its EV'S future values?
Obviously if you buy any EV used not from Tesla for example you are massively risking it. These are unproven items. 

You're assuming that someone a car becomes useless when it has only 50% range, and that nothing can be done about it?

Average UK vehicle mileage is 7,800 miles/year, which is 30 miles/day (assuming car is used 5 days a week x 52 weeks a year), so a car with a 100 mile range (an 8 year old Tesla that started with a 200 mile range) will still do ~3 days worth of average driving. Many people use less and will be happy with a lower range if the car/price is right. Most of my trips are <10 miles so I'd absolutely have a Tesla with a 20 mile range, if it was cheap enough.

Anyway, that battery will at some point be replaceable or restorable to give you more range than the car started with (due to changes in technology since the original battery was fitted). If not, the battery still has value.

It's also unlikely a battery will be as low as 50% capacity after 8 years. It was feared but they've lasted much better than expected.

An ICE car would be worth maybe 25% of the original price after 8 years, so we can assume a battery one would be similar.