What will happen to ICE Car values now that EV's are getting closer.

Bachelorplace

Interesting curve ball about the petrol hikes. Blimey that will be bad.
Be like the old days when you couldn’t shift a petrol Range Rover or V8 because everyone wanted the mpg.
The ID3 sales will be boom or bust - looks nicer than a Tesla probably less issues - not expensive - Be interesting, I think all low milers will be in EV and charging at home. 

When we can get over the issues-currently charging at 7kw is pointless. 

The battery out of warranty thing is and will affect FV - but yes if its cheap- the issue is you wont know how long the charge lasts - and even if it will charge all the way. 

I have used Ev on 70 mile runs and they have been empty at the other end! #IPace - I didn’t want to stop for coffee at midnight.

I nearly bought a Model 3 but a journey to Brighton from Bristol would leave me not being able to top it up when I get there.

I think used diesel and petrol in the coming years might struggle if OEMs do attractive deals. 

If I was a pcp person maybe I would sleep better - but those are super cons long term. 

Petriix

dipsomaniac said:

Got no problem with people wanting a ev (as long as they pay road tax) but don't force it on the rest of us. In the last 25 years we have really started to perfect the ice - reliable, economic, low emissions etc. This feels like a backward step

This is such an ignorant point of view (but sadly not uncommon).

There is no such thing as 'road tax'; there is Vehicle Excise Duty which is based on CO2 emissions. Emissions from new ICEVs have been rapidly *increasing* as people buy bigger and less efficient SUV style cars.

My EV runs roughly half from zero emission solar power from my own roof, with the rest coming from the grid at an average of under 50g of CO2 per km.

The cost of ownership over 8 years will be roughly £10,000 lower than the equivalent ICEV, which goes a significant way to offset the higher purchase price. In 4 years, my EV is expected to be valued at just over £9,000 which seems pretty affordable. By that time, many more EVs will be available new with longer ranges and faster charging.

EVs are fast, smooth, clean and refined. It's hardly a step backwards to do away with the inefficiencies of engines, turbos, clutches and gearboxes before we even mention KERS braking. Did I mention that it costs about 2p per mile to drive and I can wake up with a full charge every morning.

I drive beyond my maximum range less than 20 times per year. I don't remember having been able to drive even close to that distance before the kids' (or my) bladders requiring a stop. A 300 mile journey would require a single 40 minute stop or, more likely, two 20 minute stops.

My battery is warrantied to have 80% capacity after 7 years and the residual value will likely never drop below £5,000 due to the inherent value of the battery.

I really don't know what will happen to the value of ICEVs but I really hope that they are rapidly taxed out of economically viable ownership, once of course there is sufficient supply of EVs and the accompanying infrastructure to meet people's needs.

JamoLew

Anyone who thinks that VED based on emissions goes to environmental and green projects is deluded (imo)

Emissions is purely the headline metric that the government use to generate the maximum amount of tax that they think they can 

New cars over 40k (or so) attract a higher rate for the first few years as an offset "carbon" tax -- again its just another metric used

Once ICE vehicles become fewer and EVs greater, then expect EVs to be taxed in a similar fashion (plus as mentioned the loss of tax on fuel)

Tax on electricity will likely rise - possibly they will also use kw/h as a taxing metric and god help the initial "carbon" tax on a brand new EV

The government NEEDS the revenue generated by ICE vehicles, once they are gone/reduced, that still needs generating - they wont just go after ICE owners

mgfvvc

Bachelorplace said:
1 - Owner 1 Year 1 - Nice new Tesla.
2 - Owner 2 Year 4 - Nice used Tesla with 4 years left battery cover nice price thank you. 
3-  Owner 3 Year 8 -  If the battery cover has not been extended the car is pretty useless to anyone and the battery could have been abused and thus has 50% range in it.

According to the 2020 Which used car survey, the typical 5 year old electric car still had 95% of the original range, so typical degradation appears to be 1% a year. I'm not sure that's a linear process but, even so there won't be that many batteries that are knackered at 8 years.
It's probably easier to spot a 50% range battery than dodgy turbos, timing belts, gearboxes, etc. Not that there's no risk with an EV, but there is so much more to go wrong in an ICE drivetrain.

AdrianC

Petriix said:

dipsomaniac said:

In the last 25 years we have really started to perfect the ice - reliable, economic, low emissions etc.

This is such an ignorant point of view (but sadly not uncommon).

It's also inaccurate.

In the last 25 years, we've gone from utterly reliable fuel injected, mapped-ignition engines with diagnostics to massively over-complicated engines... Down-sizing with highly-stressed turbos. Common rail. DMFs. Post-treatment particulate filters. The payoff is, of course, better emissions - albeit with a degree of fixing.

EVs swap that mechanical complexity for complex drivetrain and charge management electronics.

The rest of the car has also got overly-complicated, too. Touch-screen climate integrated with control of various drivetrain and chassis options integrated with entertainment and nav, sensors monitoring the surroundings, alphabet-soup of driver aids, multiplexing.

THAT's what kills cars now, and it's only going to get worse. Cars are going to be electronically unfixable long before they're worn out.

dipsomaniac

Petriix said:

dipsomaniac said:

Got no problem with people wanting a ev (as long as they pay road tax) but don't force it on the rest of us. In the last 25 years we have really started to perfect the ice - reliable, economic, low emissions etc. This feels like a backward step

This is such an ignorant point of view (but sadly not uncommon).

There is no such thing as 'road tax'; there is Vehicle Excise Duty which is based on CO2 emissions. Emissions from new ICEVs have been rapidly *increasing* as people buy bigger and less efficient SUV style cars.

My EV runs roughly half from zero emission solar power from my own roof, with the rest coming from the grid at an average of under 50g of CO2 per km.

The cost of ownership over 8 years will be roughly £10,000 lower than the equivalent ICEV, which goes a significant way to offset the higher purchase price. In 4 years, my EV is expected to be valued at just over £9,000 which seems pretty affordable. By that time, many more EVs will be available new with longer ranges and faster charging.

EVs are fast, smooth, clean and refined. It's hardly a step backwards to do away with the inefficiencies of engines, turbos, clutches and gearboxes before we even mention KERS braking. Did I mention that it costs about 2p per mile to drive and I can wake up with a full charge every morning.

I drive beyond my maximum range less than 20 times per year. I don't remember having been able to drive even close to that distance before the kids' (or my) bladders requiring a stop. A 300 mile journey would require a single 40 minute stop or, more likely, two 20 minute stops.

My battery is warrantied to have 80% capacity after 7 years and the residual value will likely never drop below £5,000 due to the inherent value of the battery.

I really don't know what will happen to the value of ICEVs but I really hope that they are rapidly taxed out of economically viable ownership, once of course there is sufficient supply of EVs and the accompanying infrastructure to meet people's needs.

This is such a arrogant point of view🙂

Perhaps we will agree on the next name for the tax that most people pay to drive on the roads

You didn't say how much you paid for your ev or what model? Did you mention how much a mile?

dipsomaniac

AdrianC said:

Petriix said:

dipsomaniac said:

In the last 25 years we have really started to perfect the ice - reliable, economic, low emissions etc.

This is such an ignorant point of view (but sadly not uncommon).

It's also inaccurate.

In the last 25 years, we've gone from utterly reliable fuel injected, mapped-ignition engines with diagnostics to massively over-complicated engines... Down-sizing with highly-stressed turbos. Common rail. DMFs. Post-treatment particulate filters. The payoff is, of course, better emissions - albeit with a degree of fixing.

EVs swap that mechanical complexity for complex drivetrain and charge management electronics.

The rest of the car has also got overly-complicated, too. Touch-screen climate integrated with control of various drivetrain and chassis options integrated with entertainment and nav, sensors monitoring the surroundings, alphabet-soup of driver aids, multiplexing.

THAT's what kills cars now, and it's only going to get worse. Cars are going to be electronically unfixable long before they're worn out.

Totally agree.  Cars are way more complicated than they need to be and replaced far too often

Ditzy_Mitzy

Petriix said:

dipsomaniac said:

Got no problem with people wanting a ev (as long as they pay road tax) but don't force it on the rest of us. In the last 25 years we have really started to perfect the ice - reliable, economic, low emissions etc. This feels like a backward step

This is such an ignorant point of view (but sadly not uncommon).

There is no such thing as 'road tax'; there is Vehicle Excise Duty which is based on CO2 emissions. Emissions from new ICEVs have been rapidly *increasing* as people buy bigger and less efficient SUV style cars.

My EV runs roughly half from zero emission solar power from my own roof, with the rest coming from the grid at an average of under 50g of CO2 per km.

The cost of ownership over 8 years will be roughly £10,000 lower than the equivalent ICEV, which goes a significant way to offset the higher purchase price. In 4 years, my EV is expected to be valued at just over £9,000 which seems pretty affordable. By that time, many more EVs will be available new with longer ranges and faster charging.

EVs are fast, smooth, clean and refined. It's hardly a step backwards to do away with the inefficiencies of engines, turbos, clutches and gearboxes before we even mention KERS braking. Did I mention that it costs about 2p per mile to drive and I can wake up with a full charge every morning.

I drive beyond my maximum range less than 20 times per year. I don't remember having been able to drive even close to that distance before the kids' (or my) bladders requiring a stop. A 300 mile journey would require a single 40 minute stop or, more likely, two 20 minute stops.

My battery is warrantied to have 80% capacity after 7 years and the residual value will likely never drop below £5,000 due to the inherent value of the battery.

I really don't know what will happen to the value of ICEVs but I really hope that they are rapidly taxed out of economically viable ownership, once of course there is sufficient supply of EVs and the accompanying infrastructure to meet people's needs.

You state that the car charges up overnight and also charges up during the day, courtesy of solar panels.  Do you ever actually drive it?  
Conversely my car does nothing during the day, other than holding an amount of petrol in the fuel tank.  My solar panels are thus freed up to provide power to the appliances I'm presently using.  It's all swings and roundabouts, when you think about it; trickle charging an electric car that doesn't go anywhere seems like a waste of the clean electricity that could be powering your washing machine.  

Herzlos

Ditzy_Mitzy said:

You state that the car charges up overnight and also charges up during the day, courtesy of solar panels.  Do you ever actually drive it?  

I assume based on the average of 30 miles/day travel in a car, that the average car spends at least 22 hours a day not in use (assuming a fairly generous 15mph average). There's no reason a car couldn't charge at day and night as required, as essentially always be fully fuelled and ready to go.

Grumpy_chap

mgfvvc said:

According to the 2020 Which used car survey, the typical 5 year old electric car still had 95% of the original range, so typical degradation appears to be 1% a year. I'm not sure that's a linear process but, even so there won't be that many batteries that are knackered at 8 years.
It's probably easier to spot a 50% range battery than dodgy turbos, timing belts, gearboxes, etc. Not that there's no risk with an EV, but there is so much more to go wrong in an ICE drivetrain.

How reliable is this past data as a future predictor?
Five years ago an EV was very much a niche product and only chosen by those who particularly assessed their proposed usage as suitable within the constraints of an EV available at that time.  The cars then did mostly have restrictive range (the Tesla S and X excluded from mass-market by price) and only suited to a certain type of customer.  It is likely that there were very few people who purchased an EV five years ago as their only car, but the EV was a second car and backed up by a conventional ICE (either for the same driver or as the "family car").

As the range of EV extends, the EV becomes a potential contender as an only car and no ICE available for long or unusual journeys.  Just like most people have just one ICE car that has to do everything.  Certainly, this would be the case for me - I am keen to go to an EV and was assessing options pre-lockdown for an EV to do my daily 140-mile round trip commute.  There were limited options, particularly taking into account no viable charging at the workplace, but this was looking like it could be doable.  Given that "real world" range is going to be somewhat less than "test range" (similar to mpg figures for an ICE car), that would mean a far harsher battery and vehicle operating cycle than for an EV used for lower demand.

How would this type of harsh battery cycle impact the longevity of the battery?  Given that the impact of a reduction in range for a higher mileage driver will be ever more so significant than a second car user only using the EV for the "right" journeys.