BITCOIN

RolandFlagg

Futures ETF this year.

Spot ETF next year.

Well known old school investors like Ray Dalio now have btc in their portfolio.

The future is here.

BTW, just a stat for you all:

In the last decade keeping 99% of your wealth in cash doing nothing and having 1% in btc would have outperformed the S&P 500.

But of course we all know that is too risky for some
Maybe Marcus will raise their interest rate by 0.05% so the MSE community can sleep better on a night.

coastline

I know very little and well done to Bitcoin holders. Given where it is today and I'm assuming you can make a cash sale then why not switch a percentage into equities such as a global tracker fund. ? The move in the last year can only be described as " parabolic plus plus "  and such moves often end in similar reversals. Might never happen but if you set the chart to 5yrs or more you can see the picture. 2018 slumped 50% from the peak. Since 2020 it's up from 10,000 to over 60,000. Since we're now talking ETF's then why not a bit in VWRL.?

BTCUSD | Bitcoin US Dollar - Live Chart Price Currency Exchange Rate (tradingeconomics.com)

FBhBn2oWQAQu0lq (1200×685) (twimg.com)

Scottex99

Plenty of people will be doing that. 

The only problem with doing 4-5 years of crypto investing, when you go back to traditional it feels like an absolute bore. Of course more money is the only aim of the game but you switch back into gold or some stock that does 2.39% in a year (up or down) and it's... boring.

It wouldn't be sensible to have huge chunks of your net worth in crypto for many many years, even for someone as bullish as I am. I have a rough sketch of a plan in my head, when to cash out and what to do with the profit. Let's hope I action it before Crypto Winter II

adindas

RolandFlagg said:

BTW, just a stat for you all:

In the last decade keeping 99% of your wealth in cash doing nothing and having 1% in btc would have outperformed the S&P 500.

But of course we all know that is too risky for some
Maybe Marcus will raise their interest rate by 0.05% so the MSE community can sleep better on a night.

For saving some people still save in Regular Saving Account that could still pay 0.75%. £250 a month for 1 year will earn £12.17.Some people are still happy with that return. For investing the most popular investing, you will see asked. discussed on MSE on almost daily basis is Vanguard life strategy. There is nothing wrong to save/invest your money in Saving or Vanguard life strategy if this the level of risk you are willing to take and you are happy with the return.

But when people start discussing sharing knowledge of other investment opportunity with potential high risk/high return like Bitcoin, Alt coin, you will be attacked, be called a scammer, a gambler or encouraging gambling in this forum. Some people will call you a pumper. Those who call people sharing info like BTC on MSE, a pumper shows a lack of understanding how P&D work and what element involved. Understanding how P&D work is crucial skills if you want to get involved in DIY investing. How come a retail investor here on MSE would be able to influence the price and thus benefit form the price movement when the market cap of BTC is already US$1T+ and hundred of million of people already got involved?

For these people sharing knowledge info of high risk/high return, volatile investment might attack their comfort zone because all they know is Vanguard life strategy and saving account.

If you think investing in other assets is a gambling just because the risk involved, then any other investment product could be associated with gambling as you are also taking a risk, your money even in very well diversified fund could go down -40% within a week during the market crash. Noone sensible would want to take a risk for nothing; high risk will mean a potentially high return. It is all about risk vs reward and some people prepare to take a much higher risk looking for potential of a much higher return because they have knowledge of the product that other people might not know.

Linton

adindas said:

RolandFlagg said:

BTW, just a stat for you all:

In the last decade keeping 99% of your wealth in cash doing nothing and having 1% in btc would have outperformed the S&P 500.

But of course we all know that is too risky for some
Maybe Marcus will raise their interest rate by 0.05% so the MSE community can sleep better on a night.

............

If you think investing in other assets is a gambling just because the risk involved, then any other investment product could be associated with gambling as you are also taking a risk, your money even in very well diversified fund could go down -40% within a week during the market crash. Noone sensible would want to take a risk for nothing; high risk will mean high return. Some people prepare to take a much higher risk with potential of a much higher return because they have knowledge of the product.

1) High returns almost certainly imply high risk.  High risk does not imply high returns.

2) Sensible investors who take risks with serious money do not put all their money into one high risk.  They use multiple high risk investments and some lower risk investments on the grounds that a single failure will not destroy all one's wealth.  Putting money into one Coin is like investing in one share.  Putting money into a range of Coins is like investing in one fairly small risky sector (eg small drug development companies).  You should be putting money into a wide range of sectors,  and cerainly not just into one share.  Doing otherwise should certainly be seen as gambling.

3) With share investing one must assume that the market will broadly rise given sufficient time.  The more risk one takes the more time one should allow.  So a temporary 40% drop is not something you should panic over.  The assumption is backed up by history and the thought that if it isnt true you and the rest of the world will have greater problems than the value of your investments as it would imply that global industry has stopped making profits.

adindas

Linton said:

adindas said:

RolandFlagg said:

BTW, just a stat for you all:

In the last decade keeping 99% of your wealth in cash doing nothing and having 1% in btc would have outperformed the S&P 500.

But of course we all know that is too risky for some
Maybe Marcus will raise their interest rate by 0.05% so the MSE community can sleep better on a night.

............

If you think investing in other assets is a gambling just because the risk involved, then any other investment product could be associated with gambling as you are also taking a risk, your money even in very well diversified fund could go down -40% within a week during the market crash. Noone sensible would want to take a risk for nothing; high risk will mean high return. Some people prepare to take a much higher risk with potential of a much higher return because they have knowledge of the product.

1) High returns almost certainly imply high risk.  High risk does not imply high returns.

2) Sensible investors who take risks with serious money do not put all their money into one high risk.  They use multiple high risk investments and some lower risk investments on the grounds that a single failure will not destroy all one's wealth.  Putting money into one Coin is like investing in one share.  Putting money into a range of Coins is like investing in one fairly small risky sector (eg small drug development companies).  You should be putting money into a wide range of sectors,  and cerainly not just into one share.  Doing otherwise should certainly be seen as gambling.

3) With share investing one must assume that the market will broadly rise given sufficient time.  The more risk one takes the more time one should allow.  So a temporary 40% drop is not something you should panic over.  The assumption is backed up by history and the thought that if it isnt true you and the rest of the world will have greater problems than the value of your investments as it would imply that global industry has stopped making profits.

I agree with most of the point you raise. I fully believe people who got involved in DIY investing already know that.

But calling people a scammer, a gambler or encouraging gambling, a pumper in this forum just because people are showing the performance of BTC is the behavior that will need to be confronted.

Also as I mentioned before, those who call people sharing info like BTC on MSE, a pumper shows a lack of understanding how P&D work and what element involved. Understanding how P&D work is crucial skills if you want to get involved in DIY investing. How come a retail investor here on MSE would be able to influence the price and thus benefit form the price movement when the market cap of BTC is already US$1T+ and hundred of million of people already got involved?

User232002

Linton said:

1) High returns almost certainly imply high risk.  High risk does not imply high returns.

False. Both are correlated, but there is no causal relationship here so we can not make this statement.

Linton said:

2) Sensible investors who take risks with serious money do not put all their money into one high risk.  They use multiple high risk investments and some lower risk investments on the grounds that a single failure will not destroy all one's wealth.  Putting money into one Coin is like investing in one share.  Putting money into a range of Coins is like investing in one fairly small risky sector (eg small drug development companies).  You should be putting money into a wide range of sectors,  and cerainly not just into one share.  Doing otherwise should certainly be seen as gambling.

False again. Reduction of variance through diversification also implies reduction of the mean returns. This is a spectrum. There are no right and wrong answers; only tradeoffs.

As Soros told Druckenmiller, "size your position according to conviction." 

Cus

darren232002 said:

Linton said:

1) High returns almost certainly imply high risk.  High risk does not imply high returns.

False. Both are correlated, but there is no causal relationship here so we can not make this statement.

Linton said:

2) Sensible investors who take risks with serious money do not put all their money into one high risk.  They use multiple high risk investments and some lower risk investments on the grounds that a single failure will not destroy all one's wealth.  Putting money into one Coin is like investing in one share.  Putting money into a range of Coins is like investing in one fairly small risky sector (eg small drug development companies).  You should be putting money into a wide range of sectors,  and cerainly not just into one share.  Doing otherwise should certainly be seen as gambling.

False again. Reduction of variance through diversification also implies reduction of the mean returns. This is a spectrum. There are no right and wrong answers; only tradeoffs.

As Soros told Druckenmiller, "size your position according to conviction." 

Agree, there are no right or wrong answers. But a large number of people would consider investing most of your portfolio in one share, coin etc as 'gambling'.
You might have 100% conviction on the 4.20 at Aintree, but others will call it gambling.

Zola.

New all time high

Boom 

adindas

Zola. said:

New all time high

Boom 

US$ 66k+ now.Hopefully not, but you might get attacked by the people on this thread who do not like it, who have missed the boat that will shout; you are a scammer, a pumper, a gambler because Charlie Munger and Warren Buffet said so.

Similarly, to TESLA – TSLA (or similar high growth) stock when they were still below $1,000 before the stock split last year.

Once you mention Tesla here on MSE, you would get attacked by the same sort of people who only know about Vanguard Lifestrategy or saving account, because you have touched their comfort zone. Now Tesla are already $865+, e.g., equivalent to $4,325 before the stock split.

If you blindly listen to these sort of people without doing your own DD, you would have missed a lot of opportunities in the market.

I like the quotation of this famous person.