BITCOIN

adindas

Linton said:

adindas said:

RolandFlagg said:

BTW, just a stat for you all:

In the last decade keeping 99% of your wealth in cash doing nothing and having 1% in btc would have outperformed the S&P 500.

But of course we all know that is too risky for some
Maybe Marcus will raise their interest rate by 0.05% so the MSE community can sleep better on a night.

............

If you think investing in other assets is a gambling just because the risk involved, then any other investment product could be associated with gambling as you are also taking a risk, your money even in very well diversified fund could go down -40% within a week during the market crash. Noone sensible would want to take a risk for nothing; high risk will mean high return. Some people prepare to take a much higher risk with potential of a much higher return because they have knowledge of the product.

1) High returns almost certainly imply high risk.  High risk does not imply high returns.

2) Sensible investors who take risks with serious money do not put all their money into one high risk.  They use multiple high risk investments and some lower risk investments on the grounds that a single failure will not destroy all one's wealth.  Putting money into one Coin is like investing in one share.  Putting money into a range of Coins is like investing in one fairly small risky sector (eg small drug development companies).  You should be putting money into a wide range of sectors,  and cerainly not just into one share.  Doing otherwise should certainly be seen as gambling.

3) With share investing one must assume that the market will broadly rise given sufficient time.  The more risk one takes the more time one should allow.  So a temporary 40% drop is not something you should panic over.  The assumption is backed up by history and the thought that if it isnt true you and the rest of the world will have greater problems than the value of your investments as it would imply that global industry has stopped making profits.

I agree with most of the point you raise. I fully believe people who got involved in DIY investing already know that.

But calling people a scammer, a gambler or encouraging gambling, a pumper in this forum just because people are showing the performance of BTC is the behavior that will need to be confronted.

Also as I mentioned before, those who call people sharing info like BTC on MSE, a pumper shows a lack of understanding how P&D work and what element involved. Understanding how P&D work is crucial skills if you want to get involved in DIY investing. How come a retail investor here on MSE would be able to influence the price and thus benefit form the price movement when the market cap of BTC is already US$1T+ and hundred of million of people already got involved?

User232002

Linton said:

1) High returns almost certainly imply high risk.  High risk does not imply high returns.

False. Both are correlated, but there is no causal relationship here so we can not make this statement.

Linton said:

2) Sensible investors who take risks with serious money do not put all their money into one high risk.  They use multiple high risk investments and some lower risk investments on the grounds that a single failure will not destroy all one's wealth.  Putting money into one Coin is like investing in one share.  Putting money into a range of Coins is like investing in one fairly small risky sector (eg small drug development companies).  You should be putting money into a wide range of sectors,  and cerainly not just into one share.  Doing otherwise should certainly be seen as gambling.

False again. Reduction of variance through diversification also implies reduction of the mean returns. This is a spectrum. There are no right and wrong answers; only tradeoffs.

As Soros told Druckenmiller, "size your position according to conviction." 

Cus

darren232002 said:

Linton said:

1) High returns almost certainly imply high risk.  High risk does not imply high returns.

False. Both are correlated, but there is no causal relationship here so we can not make this statement.

Linton said:

2) Sensible investors who take risks with serious money do not put all their money into one high risk.  They use multiple high risk investments and some lower risk investments on the grounds that a single failure will not destroy all one's wealth.  Putting money into one Coin is like investing in one share.  Putting money into a range of Coins is like investing in one fairly small risky sector (eg small drug development companies).  You should be putting money into a wide range of sectors,  and cerainly not just into one share.  Doing otherwise should certainly be seen as gambling.

False again. Reduction of variance through diversification also implies reduction of the mean returns. This is a spectrum. There are no right and wrong answers; only tradeoffs.

As Soros told Druckenmiller, "size your position according to conviction." 

Agree, there are no right or wrong answers. But a large number of people would consider investing most of your portfolio in one share, coin etc as 'gambling'.
You might have 100% conviction on the 4.20 at Aintree, but others will call it gambling.

Zola.

New all time high

Boom 

adindas

Zola. said:

New all time high

Boom 

US$ 66k+ now.Hopefully not, but you might get attacked by the people on this thread who do not like it, who have missed the boat that will shout; you are a scammer, a pumper, a gambler because Charlie Munger and Warren Buffet said so.

Similarly, to TESLA – TSLA (or similar high growth) stock when they were still below $1,000 before the stock split last year.

Once you mention Tesla here on MSE, you would get attacked by the same sort of people who only know about Vanguard Lifestrategy or saving account, because you have touched their comfort zone. Now Tesla are already $865+, e.g., equivalent to $4,325 before the stock split.

If you blindly listen to these sort of people without doing your own DD, you would have missed a lot of opportunities in the market.

I like the quotation of this famous person.

Scottex99

Agree, there are no right or wrong answers. But a large number of people would consider investing most of your portfolio in one share, coin etc as 'gambling'.
You might have 100% conviction on the 4.20 at Aintree, but others will call it gambling.

Fair, but only Reddit kids or people with insane risk tolerance would do it that way. Most people would try to diversify through various types of assets at least. There’s still people holding half of their NW in crypto who laugh in disbelief as some 18 year old kid turns 20k into 10m on dog money.

I guess the beauty of it is the pro crypto people are generally sub 40 so don’t care if they blow up their accounts a few time. Horses for courses

Zola.

adindas said:

Zola. said:

New all time high

Boom 

US$ 66k+ now.Hopefully not, but you might get attacked by the people on this thread who do not like it, who have missed the boat that will shout; you are a scammer, a pumper, a gambler because Charlie Munger and Warren Buffet said so.

Similarly, to TESLA – TSLA (or similar high growth) stock when they were still below $1,000 before the stock split last year.

Once you mention Tesla here on MSE, you would get attacked by the same sort of people who only know about Vanguard Lifestrategy or saving account, because you have touched their comfort zone. Now Tesla are already $865+, e.g., equivalent to $4,325 before the stock split.

If you blindly listen to these sort of people without doing my own DD, you would have missed a lot of opportunities in the market.

I like the quotation of this famous person.

Agreed

Also, this one is worth sharing.

adindas

Zola. said:

adindas said:

Agreed

Also, this one is worth sharing.

And this person:

Bill Gates interview wth Bloomberg.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2014-10-02/bill-gates-bitcoin-is-exciting-because-its-cheap

adindas

Scottex99 said:

Agree, there are no right or wrong answers. But a large number of people would consider investing most of your portfolio in one share, coin etc as 'gambling'.
You might have 100% conviction on the 4.20 at Aintree, but others will call it gambling.

Fair, but only Reddit kids or people with insane risk tolerance would do it that way. Most people would try to diversify through various types of assets at least. There’s still people holding half of their NW in crypto who laugh in disbelief as some 18 year old kid turns 20k into 10m on dog money.

I guess the beauty of it is the pro crypto people are generally sub 40 so don’t care if they blow up their accounts a few time. Horses for courses

Well, this is really the point of taking a calculated risk (Risk vs Reward) in investment is it not? And any investment will always involve some level of risk.

If after his own DD he believes that this asset could turn US$20k into US$10m (say like the above example) and he is using the money he could effort to lose, then he should gives it ago. RISK he might lose US$20k, REWARD he might turn the investment into US$10m.

Nowayds there are a lot of analytical tools, probabilistic model, info / online news in real time, analyst prediction that might help in making conviction.

The best stock picker in the world now is "Nancy Pelocy"

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15549573/pelosis-husband-5m-11m-big-tech-stocks-insider-trading/

NANCY CASHING IN? Pelosi’s husband rakes in $5M profit after buying $11M in big tech stocks as critics accuse couple of ‘insider trading’

If you could get info in real time, insider information of what Nancy Pelocy (or her husband) was buying that it might be worthy to follow her.

Some people might call it gambling but this person makes this decsion after doing his own DD and he has made his own conviction.

Keep in mind people has a difference risk tolerance. No one rational will take unnecessary risk for nothing.

RolandFlagg

Let's not get confused between a long term investment in Bitcoin, and kids on Reddit putting money into Safemoon.

These kids have only a few dollars to put in. Even an asset that goes up 100% in a year is no good to them.
They are looking for their $100 gamble to turn into a life changing amount.

It's a bit like them putting their money into Gamestop or AMC.
Just because those "meme" stocks are listed on the stock exchange doesn't mean the whole of the stock market is a scam.

And just because you have people gambling on s**tcoins does not mean that Bitcoin is a scam.