BITCOIN

User232002

Section62 said:

Enron?

(And other more topical examples, which I won't name for the health and welfare of the thread)

Ah, Enron. Not something I know a lot about, but...

Started M2M accounting in 92/93 when their share price was @ $20 and ended up in full blown fraud in '01 with a comparable share price of $180 I think. So a 9x in 8 years. Bitcoin has gone through a 61000x in 9 years. These are orders of magnitude apart and so an argument that 'it happened with Enron,' doesn't lead to 'therefore it can also happen with Bitcoin.' Additionally, the numbers quoted are the generous versions in your favour. In reality, Enron was a solid company from 85 to 92/93 and became a scam somewhere in between there and '01; probably after gradually realising what they could get away with. It wasn't until 97 that their accounting practices began to markedly impact their share price and by '01 they were basically found out, thus we could argue that actually it was something like a 6x in 3 years. This goes back to what I said earlier; price can diverge from reality, but only on a temporary basis. I also took the initial BTC price to be a dollar from 2012, when it was way lower than that in earlier years (indeed, free in some places) - so that 61000x price increase is actually undershooting it by some margin.

Additionally, their accounting practices were known about at the time and praised for being 'innovative.' That, plus enough commentators questioning the company throughout 2000 at least, means that the signs were there for you to figure out what was going on. So yes, using your brain would have helped.

In any event, whats the point of this? If you want to discuss probabilistic models of various investments and how far they can deviate from their mean expected or underlying value then start a thread discussing such. Posting this in a Bitcoin thread whilst simultaneously stating that it isn't a comment on Bitcoin is pointless. 

adindas

Zola. said:

If it's a scam it's a very generous one, annualizing 200% gains per year for anyone who simply buys and holds the asset through at least one cycle. 

Aahhhhhhh Only 200% per year?. A few of biotech stocks manage to spike 6X+ in a day, very few are even 10X+ a day due to catalysts, breaking news of a new drug invention, drug approval by authority, etc. 

So they are scam then ....

I am not saying that there is not any scam in biotech stock, in fact many of P&D case happen in Biotech sector as many of Biotech share price are penny stock, low float, with a small market cap. So the price is relatively easy to be moved by the scammers, who own that company or who own majority of the shares.

But BTC market cap is US$1T+, how many people in this world will be able to move/manipulate the price significantly with such market cap?? Is there any people own BTC more than 50% (say) so for those people the risk/reward is a huge incentive to commit that action as they will benefit the most with price movement??

How could it possibly happen for people to own majority of BTC? Keep in mind there are limited supply, there are few hundred millions of people getting involved. You could only get 50% if vast majority of people want to sell it.

Who control BTC?? Keep in mind the main benefit of blockchain is the distributed economy, so no single person or government will have enough power to control them as the power is distributed along the chain.

RolandFlagg

My favourite video explaining how Blockchain works, for those interested.

IMO, everyone should take a couple of hours to research this. It will change the way we live, and offer the best risk/reward investments in our lifetime, as long as you are patient, have a long term view, don't panic sell in volatility, and only invest what you don't need anytime soon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pl8OlkkwRpc&ab_channel=TED

adindas

RolandFlagg said:

My favourite video explaining how Blockchain works, for those interested.

It is very informative indeed for those who want to start to dip their toes in the water understanding the basic of blockchain.

For those who want to learn blockchain as a series of lectures like Business, Finance Economics student at the university (not computer science student) learn. The series lecture from Gary Gensler might be more appropriate. Gary Gensler,  the current Chief of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was a former professor at MIT teaching block chain and crypto.

You could find most of his lecture on YouTube using the search word, for instance “gary gensler's crypto and blockchain”

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EH6vE97qIP4&list=PLUl4u3cNGP63UUkfL0onkxF6MYgVa04Fn)

You could also find his lecture among with other open lecture in MIT OpenCourseWare including Blockchain intended blockchain cryptography intended for computer science students.  

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEBb1b_L6zDS3xTUrIALZOw

Section62

darren232002 said:

In any event, whats the point of this? If you want to discuss probabilistic models of various investments and how far they can deviate from their mean expected or underlying value then start a thread discussing such. Posting this in a Bitcoin thread whilst simultaneously stating that it isn't a comment on Bitcoin is pointless. 

No, I'm not really interested in discussing probabilistic modelling. That discussion is the one you wanted to have, apparently to deflect away from the point I was making.

Which was that the proposition put forward by adindas, that equates to 'look at the profits, this can't be a scam' is a dangerous suggestion on a consumer-orientated forum where people frequently arrive asking "This investment looks too good to be true, is it a scam?"

Anything which implies great performance is a reliable indicator of the safety of any investment doesn't deserve to be on a forum like this one without some cautionary balance.

As for Bitcoin, very few people would claim the cryptocurrency space is free from scams, I'm pretty sure pros like Scottex have made that point themselves.

So, without getting bogged down in an argument about whether BTC is or isn't, there should be a relative consensus here that any investment requires some research and knowledge, and a simplistic 'look at the profits' approach to due diligence is one which is deeply flawed.

My view FWIW, is one of the serious threats to cryptocurrency is the scamming circulating around it, not the nature of the currencies themselves.  Folks who are serious/professional about cryptocurrency, who can't see the danger in remarks like the one adindas made, and who won't tolerate any discussion around the subject of scams/fraud, really need to give their heads a bit of a wobble.  Bitcoin won't be crashed by the 'boomers' having nothing to do with it, it will be crashed by the pseudo-experts who encourage others to dive in without due care.  They are the ones you need to watch out for.

Michael121

adindas said:

I remember someone here is saying BTC is a scam, lol. Also, someone is saying he did not believe in BTC just because Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger are saying so.

That's not exactly what i said. Anyway you've been pound cost averaging BTC for 5mins and now your blowing your trumpet already.

You missed the boat last year, what was it 4-5k into 60k. When markets crash for 50% plus, when ever that is you can put high odds on BTC dropping 90%. What do you think is more likely BTC crashes 90% or 10xs to 600k. I think pound cost averaging BTC is madness. If you want to gamble at least wait for a huge crash.

Zola.

People pound cost average in as there are no guarantees that a 90% crash will continue to happen as the asset gets more globally accepted etc. As it gets more adoption the gains should slow as should the huge hair cuts...

User232002

Section62 said:

darren232002 said:

In any event, whats the point of this? If you want to discuss probabilistic models of various investments and how far they can deviate from their mean expected or underlying value then start a thread discussing such. Posting this in a Bitcoin thread whilst simultaneously stating that it isn't a comment on Bitcoin is pointless. 

Which was that the proposition put forward by adindas, that equates to 'look at the profits, this can't be a scam' is a dangerous suggestion on a consumer-orientated forum where people frequently arrive asking "This investment looks too good to be true, is it a scam?"

Anything which implies great performance is a reliable indicator of the safety of any investment doesn't deserve to be on a forum like this one without some cautionary balance.

You keep restating this as if its sage advice, when its just a slightly better, but still deeply flawed, understanding of reality. 

Idiot: "Number go up, therefore investment good"
Slightly less of an idiot: "Well, results aren't necessarily indicative of value"
The actual truth: "Results can indeed be evidence ranging from statistically insignificant to incredibly informative depending on the timeframe we are looking at, extension from the expectation and the variance expected."

Given what we've seen with Bitcoin, #1 and #2 are both as stupid as each other.

Section62 said:

As for Bitcoin, very few people would claim the cryptocurrency space is free from scams, I'm pretty sure pros like Scottex have made that point themselves.

So, without getting bogged down in an argument about whether BTC is or isn't, there should be a relative consensus here that any investment requires some research and knowledge, and a simplistic 'look at the profits' approach to due diligence is one which is deeply flawed.

My view FWIW, is one of the serious threats to cryptocurrency is the scamming circulating around it, not the nature of the currencies themselves.  Folks who are serious/professional about cryptocurrency, who can't see the danger in remarks like the one adindas made, and who won't tolerate any discussion around the subject of scams/fraud, really need to give their heads a bit of a wobble.  Bitcoin won't be crashed by the 'boomers' having nothing to do with it, it will be crashed by the pseudo-experts who encourage others to dive in without due care.  They are the ones you need to watch out for.

What the hell are you on about? This is a Bitcoin thread. Its for the discussion of buying and holding Bitcoin. Exchanges recommended have been Coinbase and Binance. Where is the scam? What you're describing is the boogeyman; it doesn't exist here. Nobody is on here shilling SHIBA or SAFEMOON and when they do they promptly get told to sod off. I've posted multiple times on this forum that ADA and XRP have little value and that people shouldn't be buying them.

The point put forward by adindas, that buying Bitcoin isn't a scam because of its past performance, is almost certainly statistically true. The argument doesn't apply to other coins / tokens that are much newer - but nobody here, including adindas, is suggesting that's the case anyway. 

Section62

darren232002 said:

What the hell are you on about? This is a Bitcoin thread. Its for the discussion of buying and holding Bitcoin. Exchanges recommended have been Coinbase and Binance. Where is the scam? What you're describing is the boogeyman; it doesn't exist here. Nobody is on here shilling SHIBA or SAFEMOON and when they do they promptly get told to sod off. I've posted multiple times on this forum that ADA and XRP have little value and that people shouldn't be buying them.

The point put forward by adindas, that buying Bitcoin isn't a scam because of its past performance, is almost certainly statistically true. The argument doesn't apply to other coins / tokens that are much newer - but nobody here, including adindas, is suggesting that's the case anyway. 

Sure, have it your way then darren232002.  Nobody has ever been scammed buying, holding or selling Bitcoin.  Bitcoin is a 100% 99.999999% statistically safe investment because of the returns.

Nothing to see here.


We are going to have to agree to disagree.

adindas

There are a few people have said Bitcoin or other major cryptos is a scam because they lost money, they are getting scammed due to their own naivety.

They lost money because they bought them at the peak and then when the price drops 30% (say) they do panic selling. When they lost money similar to losing money in any other assets or investment product they will say those “investment product is a scam”. Eveyone could lose money in investing in any asset, even the best hedgies in the world. But investing in any assest itself is not a scam.

They might also get phishing scams, where the scammer asks them to share their private keys, which are used to secure their cryptocurrency wallets, so the scammers can access those people account and steal their cryptocurrency. They might also get contacted by scammer randomly via email, offering an unmissable cryptocurrency investment opportunity. When they lost their coin they will say Bitcoin is a scam.

How come Blockchain is a scam when it is just a ledger. People have been using ledger for ages to record transaction The only different is that this blockchain ledger here is “immutable”.

If you could fall into this low-level scam, you should not be getting involved in investing / trading in individual stock, various assets just buy Vanguard Life Strategy (VL). I know this product is very popular here on MSE, as it has been mentioned here almost every single week. There is nothing wrong with it.

But what is wrong here is that every time the people are mentioning other investment possibilities, assets, investing in inividual stock they will get attacked from people who just want to stay in their comfort zone.