BITCOIN

onthebench

The trouble with having 1% of your portfolio in bitcoin is that it keeps turning into more than 1% of your portfolio. 

Adyinvestment

Zola. said:

It's already been confirmed.

It seems to be, the official approval so far seems to be for the Nasdaq listing, I think the SEC have until Monday to reject it otherwise it is okay - either way it does seem to be done and dusted

Unfortunately it is only a futures based ETF and not a Bitcoin backed ETF, but still huge news and it will legitimise Bitcoin for a lot of people.

There are also another 5/6 US futures ETF's with their approvals due in the next few weeks, so if one gets approved maybe they all will.

Adyinvestment

Other big (possibly bigger for Bitcoins price in the long run) ETF news yesterday also that has been swamped a bit by the US news - A Jacobi/Fidelity physically backed Bitcoin ETF has been approved for listing in Guernsey which will be available to Europe institutional investors, the FCA still have to give the go ahead but it is looking positive.

adindas

I remember someone here is saying BTC is a scam, lol. Also, someone is saying he did not believe in BTC just because Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger are saying so.

Listening to what WB and CM are saying in investing subject, make a perfect sense. But believing everything they are saying, especially in subject where there is no evidence of their knowledge of the subject in question, while many other experts in blockchain are saying otherwise, and you have not done your own DD, is not a good idea. It will make more sense if you say because I have not done my own research, not blindly believe in what someone is saying.

You could learn from everyone but follow no one in making your decision.

Have a look now how they perform now. Back to US$ 60k+. BTC the fastest asset to reach 1T+ market cap, faster than GOOG, AMZ

Section62

adindas said:

I remember someone here is saying BTC is scam, lol.

....

Have a look now how they perform now. Back to US$ 60k+. BTC the fastest asset to reach 1T+ market cap, faster than GOOG, AMZ

Not commenting on whether or not BTC is a scam, but is it really true that performance of something is an indicator of whether it is a scam or not?

If the share price of Honest-Guv-This-Is-Not-A-Scam-Company soars to £60k+ does that mean we can abandon due diligence and dive in?

I'd say not.  It could be a genuine company with great prospects, or the price could reflect how well people are being scammed.

But if you disagree, can I interest you in some shares in my snake oil supply company... which have gone up by £100k (each) in the time it took me to write this post? I'd hate for you to miss out, so you can buy as many as you like.

adindas

Section62 said:

adindas said:

I remember someone here is saying BTC is scam, lol.

....

Have a look now how they perform now. Back to US$ 60k+. BTC the fastest asset to reach 1T+ market cap, faster than GOOG, AMZ

Not commenting on whether or not BTC is a scam, but is it really true that performance of something is an indicator of whether it is a scam or not?

If the share price of Honest-Guv-This-Is-Not-A-Scam-Company soars to £60k+ does that mean we can abandon due diligence and dive in?

I'd say not.  It could be a genuine company with great prospects, or the price could reflect how well people are being scammed.

But if you disagree, can I interest you in some shares in my snake oil supply company... which have gone up by £100k (each) in the time it took me to write this post? I'd hate for you to miss out, so you can buy as many as you like.

Well, your comment comparing snake oil (as I understand a term normally used to describe deceptive marketing, health care fraud, or a scam) and blockchain, similar to the one who compare Bitcoin with Ponzi / Pyramid scheme, P&D scheme demonstrating lack of understanding of blockchain, distributed economy.

Who is controling snake oil supply company, who is controling bitcoin ??

How many well known smart people, billionaires ever own shares in snake oil supply company, how many of them own Bitcoin and altcoins ?

With market cap of US$1T+ how many people do you think will be able to do P&D to influence the price ? Look at when Chinese government one of the most powerful government on earth banned crypto, crypto mining, it managed to scare the rabbits and see what happen thereafter.

Section62

adindas said:

Well, your comment comparing snake oil (a term used to describe deceptive marketing, health care fraud, or a scam) and blockchain, similar to the one who compare Bitcoin with Ponzi / Pyramid scheme, P&D scheme demonstrating lack of understanding of blockchain, distributed economy.

I didn't make that comparison.

I was giving examples of how the 'performance' of an investment is no guide to whether the investment is real or a scam.

Odd that the thing you picked up on in that paragraph was what you perceive as a comparison (with blockchain), rather than the more obvious nonsense of an imaginary asset increasing in value by £100k in (say) 5 minutes.  By that you've possibly made my point far better than I could have done.

adindas said:

How many well known smart people ever own shares in snake oil supply company, how many of them own Bitcoind and altcoins ?

Likewise, celebrity endorsement is no guide to whether something is a scam or not.  History is full of well known people making errors of judgement when it comes to investing their own money or helping to promote something to others.

DYOR.

adindas

Section62 said:

adindas said:

Well, your comment comparing snake oil (a term used to describe deceptive marketing, health care fraud, or a scam) and blockchain, similar to the one who compare Bitcoin with Ponzi / Pyramid scheme, P&D scheme demonstrating lack of understanding of blockchain, distributed economy.

I didn't make that comparison.

I was giving examples of how the 'performance' of an investment is no guide to whether the investment is real or a scam.

Odd that the thing you picked up on in that paragraph was what you perceive as a comparison (with blockchain), rather than the more obvious nonsense of an imaginary asset increasing in value by £100k in (say) 5 minutes.  By that you've possibly made my point far better than I could have done.

adindas said:

How many well known smart people ever own shares in snake oil supply company, how many of them own Bitcoind and altcoins ?

Likewise, celebrity endorsement is no guide to whether something is a scam or not.  History is full of well known people making errors of judgement when it comes to investing their own money or helping to promote something to others.

DYOR.

Say that these smart people, bilionaires do not know what they are buying. Say that to people who are not billionaires, but understand well about blockchain, There are many of them. Say that they are collaborating helping other to promore bitcoin. Hope anyone will ever buy such argument.

Anyway has any of them owned half of them, so have control of it ?.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2021/04/06/forbes-35th-annual-worlds-billionaires-list-facts-and-figures-2021/?sh=66b3aa25e587

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnhyatt/2021/04/06/the-cryptocurrency-tycoons-on-forbes-2021-billionaires-list/?sh=16c8530425e2

Snake oil supply company comment is interesting is it not ? I understand a term used to describe deceptive marketing, health care fraud, or a scam.

User232002

Section62 said:

I was giving examples of how the 'performance' of an investment is no guide to whether the investment is real or a scam.

Incorrect actually; at least in this context. Your statement is an oversimplification of probabilistic thinking.

Good investments perform well over time (if they didn't, then the whole stock market is simply a casino) which is translated in their price going up. Poor investments are overvalued and will have their number go down, or revert to their expected value. Price may have periods where it detaches from its true value, both by over or under-performing, but over the long run price will converge on, or be correlated, with its true value. 

Thus, if an asset is up 10% in 3 months, your statement is meaningful; we can not say the investment is positive expected value with reasonable confidence because variance clouds the picture. The probability of an investment having a negative expected return (as a scam surely would), but growing in such a positive way over such a long time frame, as Bitcoin has, is approximately zero. 

Feel free to model this yourself.

Section62

darren232002 said:

Thus, if an asset is up 10% in 3 months, your statement is meaningful; we can not say the investment is positive expected value with reasonable confidence because variance clouds the picture. The probability of an investment having a negative expected return (as a scam surely would), but growing in such a positive way over such a long time frame, as Bitcoin has, is approximately zero. 

Feel free to model this yourself.

Your technical analysis of the situation appears to have overlooked a fundamental point.

Which is with a scam the 'performance' information you are receiving may have no relationship to the reality of the situation.  You will hear and see what the scammer wants you to hear and see.

I'll repeat - in case the point was missed - that my remarks have nothing to do with whether Bitcoin is a scam or not.  Only pointing out the fallacy in the proposition that 'good' perfomance is somehow proof that something isn't a scam.

Feel free to explain how an investor can be sure they aren't being lied to.

adindas said:

I remember someone here is saying BTC is a scam, lol.

....

Have a look now how they perform now. Back to US$ 60k+. BTC the fastest asset to reach 1T+ market cap, faster than GOOG, AMZ

(Note also that the post I was replying to has had various edits from the original version)