BITCOIN

adindas

Section62 said:

adindas said:

I remember someone here is saying BTC is scam, lol.

....

Have a look now how they perform now. Back to US$ 60k+. BTC the fastest asset to reach 1T+ market cap, faster than GOOG, AMZ

Not commenting on whether or not BTC is a scam, but is it really true that performance of something is an indicator of whether it is a scam or not?

If the share price of Honest-Guv-This-Is-Not-A-Scam-Company soars to £60k+ does that mean we can abandon due diligence and dive in?

I'd say not.  It could be a genuine company with great prospects, or the price could reflect how well people are being scammed.

But if you disagree, can I interest you in some shares in my snake oil supply company... which have gone up by £100k (each) in the time it took me to write this post? I'd hate for you to miss out, so you can buy as many as you like.

Well, your comment comparing snake oil (as I understand a term normally used to describe deceptive marketing, health care fraud, or a scam) and blockchain, similar to the one who compare Bitcoin with Ponzi / Pyramid scheme, P&D scheme demonstrating lack of understanding of blockchain, distributed economy.

Who is controling snake oil supply company, who is controling bitcoin ??

How many well known smart people, billionaires ever own shares in snake oil supply company, how many of them own Bitcoin and altcoins ?

With market cap of US$1T+ how many people do you think will be able to do P&D to influence the price ? Look at when Chinese government one of the most powerful government on earth banned crypto, crypto mining, it managed to scare the rabbits and see what happen thereafter.

Section62

adindas said:

Well, your comment comparing snake oil (a term used to describe deceptive marketing, health care fraud, or a scam) and blockchain, similar to the one who compare Bitcoin with Ponzi / Pyramid scheme, P&D scheme demonstrating lack of understanding of blockchain, distributed economy.

I didn't make that comparison.

I was giving examples of how the 'performance' of an investment is no guide to whether the investment is real or a scam.

Odd that the thing you picked up on in that paragraph was what you perceive as a comparison (with blockchain), rather than the more obvious nonsense of an imaginary asset increasing in value by £100k in (say) 5 minutes.  By that you've possibly made my point far better than I could have done.

adindas said:

How many well known smart people ever own shares in snake oil supply company, how many of them own Bitcoind and altcoins ?

Likewise, celebrity endorsement is no guide to whether something is a scam or not.  History is full of well known people making errors of judgement when it comes to investing their own money or helping to promote something to others.

DYOR.

adindas

Section62 said:

adindas said:

Well, your comment comparing snake oil (a term used to describe deceptive marketing, health care fraud, or a scam) and blockchain, similar to the one who compare Bitcoin with Ponzi / Pyramid scheme, P&D scheme demonstrating lack of understanding of blockchain, distributed economy.

I didn't make that comparison.

I was giving examples of how the 'performance' of an investment is no guide to whether the investment is real or a scam.

Odd that the thing you picked up on in that paragraph was what you perceive as a comparison (with blockchain), rather than the more obvious nonsense of an imaginary asset increasing in value by £100k in (say) 5 minutes.  By that you've possibly made my point far better than I could have done.

adindas said:

How many well known smart people ever own shares in snake oil supply company, how many of them own Bitcoind and altcoins ?

Likewise, celebrity endorsement is no guide to whether something is a scam or not.  History is full of well known people making errors of judgement when it comes to investing their own money or helping to promote something to others.

DYOR.

Say that these smart people, bilionaires do not know what they are buying. Say that to people who are not billionaires, but understand well about blockchain, There are many of them. Say that they are collaborating helping other to promore bitcoin. Hope anyone will ever buy such argument.

Anyway has any of them owned half of them, so have control of it ?.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2021/04/06/forbes-35th-annual-worlds-billionaires-list-facts-and-figures-2021/?sh=66b3aa25e587

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnhyatt/2021/04/06/the-cryptocurrency-tycoons-on-forbes-2021-billionaires-list/?sh=16c8530425e2

Snake oil supply company comment is interesting is it not ? I understand a term used to describe deceptive marketing, health care fraud, or a scam.

User232002

Section62 said:

I was giving examples of how the 'performance' of an investment is no guide to whether the investment is real or a scam.

Incorrect actually; at least in this context. Your statement is an oversimplification of probabilistic thinking.

Good investments perform well over time (if they didn't, then the whole stock market is simply a casino) which is translated in their price going up. Poor investments are overvalued and will have their number go down, or revert to their expected value. Price may have periods where it detaches from its true value, both by over or under-performing, but over the long run price will converge on, or be correlated, with its true value. 

Thus, if an asset is up 10% in 3 months, your statement is meaningful; we can not say the investment is positive expected value with reasonable confidence because variance clouds the picture. The probability of an investment having a negative expected return (as a scam surely would), but growing in such a positive way over such a long time frame, as Bitcoin has, is approximately zero. 

Feel free to model this yourself.

Section62

darren232002 said:

Thus, if an asset is up 10% in 3 months, your statement is meaningful; we can not say the investment is positive expected value with reasonable confidence because variance clouds the picture. The probability of an investment having a negative expected return (as a scam surely would), but growing in such a positive way over such a long time frame, as Bitcoin has, is approximately zero. 

Feel free to model this yourself.

Your technical analysis of the situation appears to have overlooked a fundamental point.

Which is with a scam the 'performance' information you are receiving may have no relationship to the reality of the situation.  You will hear and see what the scammer wants you to hear and see.

I'll repeat - in case the point was missed - that my remarks have nothing to do with whether Bitcoin is a scam or not.  Only pointing out the fallacy in the proposition that 'good' perfomance is somehow proof that something isn't a scam.

Feel free to explain how an investor can be sure they aren't being lied to.

adindas said:

I remember someone here is saying BTC is a scam, lol.

....

Have a look now how they perform now. Back to US$ 60k+. BTC the fastest asset to reach 1T+ market cap, faster than GOOG, AMZ

(Note also that the post I was replying to has had various edits from the original version)

adindas

Section62 said:

Feel free to explain how an investor can be sure they aren't being lied to.

Is this a serious statement comes from an investor/trader. Did you ever invest in individual stocks, invest in various assets or just a kind of invest in ETFs, Mutual funds ??

If you ever did invest in individual stock, invest in various assets, Did you ask other people to convince you that you are not lied or you do your own DD and make your own decision ??

adindas said:

I remember someone here is saying BTC is a scam, lol.

....

Have a look now how they perform now. Back to US$ 60k+. BTC the fastest asset to reach 1T+ market cap, faster than GOOG, AMZ

(Note also that the post I was replying to has had various edits from the original version)

Yep I make it more interesting addressing your comment of "Snake Oil Supply Company vs BTC" you see my comment in the current form, do not you ??

Section62

adindas said:  [Today at 10:03PM edited Today at 10:19PM]

Section62 said:

Feel free to explain how an investor can be sure they aren't being lied to.

Is this a serious statement comes from an investor/trader. Did you ever invest in individual stocks, invest in various assets or just a kind of invest in ETFs, Mutual funds ??

If you ever did invest in individual stock, invest in various assets, Did you ask other people to convince you that you are not lied or you do your own DD and make your own decision ??

adindas said:

I remember someone here is saying BTC is a scam, lol.

....

Have a look now how they perform now. Back to US$ 60k+. BTC the fastest asset to reach 1T+ market cap, faster than GOOG, AMZ

(Note also that the post I was replying to has had various edits from the original version)

Yep I make it more interesting addressing your comment of "Snake Oil Supply Company vs BTC" you see my comment in the current form, do not you ??

I didn't make the comment you've attributed to me (BiB)

Otherwise, let me know when you've finished editing and revising your post.  I'll reply to your other points then.  It gets really confusing when people are adding and removing stuff several hours after the original post was made.

User232002

Section62 said:

Which is with a scam the 'performance' information you are receiving may have no relationship to the reality of the situation.  You will hear and see what the scammer wants you to hear and see.

Temporarily. It can only divorce from reality temporarily. The longer the number goes up, the more likely the null hypothesis is rejected in favour of the alternate hypothesis.

Section62 said:

Only pointing out the fallacy in the proposition that 'good' perfomance is somehow proof that something isn't a scam.

Its only a fallacy when people apply that reasoning as fact over short timescales because they underestimate the nature of variance/SD. Nobody is doing that here. When it occurs over a prolonged period, the fallacy would be persisting in believing that it may or must be a scam when the probability points to the contrary.

Section62 said:

I'll repeat - in case the point was missed - that my remarks have nothing to do with whether Bitcoin is a scam or not.  

Fine, but your argument is equally pointless against other assets too.

Section62 said:

Feel free to explain how an investor can be sure they aren't being lied to.

By using their brain and thinking for themselves?

Section62

darren232002 said:

Section62 said:

Feel free to explain how an investor can be sure they aren't being lied to.

By using their brain and thinking for themselves?

Enron?

(And other more topical examples, which I won't name for the health and welfare of the thread)

Zola.

If it's a scam it's a very generous one, annualizing 200% gains per year for anyone who simply buys and holds the asset through at least one cycle.