Covid crash #2 started

Alexland

resk said:

Do yourself a favour - don't be looking at the Dow Jones / S&P today.... 

Yeah in all seriousness its awesome and I just re balanced back to my target. During the crash about 6 months ago I did say that with global economic policy throwing the kitchen sink at keeping stock prices high even if the entire index went bankrupt we would still be wondering if the Dow might hit 30k later this year and it's looking possible again. We live in strange and unpredictable times.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/77142852/#Comment_77142852

Thrugelmir

Alexland said:

resk said:

Do yourself a favour - don't be looking at the Dow Jones / S&P today.... 

Yeah in all seriousness its awesome and I just re balanced back to my target. During the crash about 6 months ago I did say that with global economic policy throwing the kitchen sink at keeping stock prices high even if the entire index went bankrupt we would still be wondering if the Dow might hit 30k later this year and it's looking possible again. We live in strange and unpredictable times.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/77142852/#Comment_77142852

Historically US markets are unsettled in the run up to Presidential elections and rise afterwards. Irrespective of the who the winner is. Appears that Democrats are unlikely to control both houses. Major reform is therefore unlikely. As policy is going to get stuck in the mud again.  Civil unrest is more likely the outcome if the shenanigans continue and the troops get whipped up into a frenzy. Political appointment of Supreme Court judge back in September could also lead to interesting times. 

mr_accountant

an interesting emperical view on US elections, essentially markets are more volitile before and after the election, but once they settle the stock markets increase more under democrats than republicans, not as one would expect

https://youtu.be/HYHu9PMY_C4

Another_Saver

Last week - wah second lockdown!
This week ... The FTSE's up... By several points?!?
If markets made sense we'd live in a perfect meritocracy.

schiff

Something strange happened. On Betfair's market for the next president all the candidates other than T and B have been 1000/1 to back but not layable for many weeks. Yesterday Kamala Harris, Biden's number two, could be backed and laid, admittedly at three figure odds. It's the same today. But why? Biden wins, some agency or other has him disappeared and Harris becomes POTUS? Stranger things have happened!

Alexland

schiff said:

Yesterday Kamala Harris, Biden's number two, could be backed and laid

Honestly I have no idea what you are saying....

ColdIron

schiff said:

Something strange happened. On Betfair's market for the next president all the candidates other than T and B have been 1000/1 to back but not layable for many weeks. Yesterday Kamala Harris, Biden's number two, could be backed and laid, admittedly at three figure odds. It's the same today. But why? Biden wins, some agency or other has him disappeared and Harris becomes POTUS? Stranger things have happened!

KH was backable and layable last week, I put a small amount on her at 500 and 800 just in case Biden pegged it and I wanted to close that particular door. Could be people rejigging their book or freeing up some cash to wring every penny out of the Biden win

This is 2020 and anything could happen

Edit: Some discussion here

https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31674713/kamala-harris-next-usa-president#flvWelcomeHeader

Cus

When does Betfair determine that the market is closed? Is it when on Jan 20th the president is inaugurated? Do we have to wait until all the legal stuff is concluded? If so, them maybe a 77 year old Biden who might catch covid as he is always around people might not survive? Then Harris is the default...

AlanP_2

Cus said:

When does Betfair determine that the market is closed? Is it when on Jan 20th the president is inaugurated? Do we have to wait until all the legal stuff is concluded? If so, them maybe a 77 year old Biden who might catch covid as he is always around people might not survive? Then Harris is the default...

I have no idea, and to be honest it is a million miles away from a Savings & Investment discussion about the impact of Covid on markets. Can we please at least try and keep broadly on topic 

ColdIron

Cus said:

When does Betfair determine that the market is closed? Is it when on Jan 20th the president is inaugurated? Do we have to wait until all the legal stuff is concluded? If so, them maybe a 77 year old Biden who might catch covid as he is always around people might not survive? Then Harris is the default...

Just like reading the T&Cs of savings products it's always worth reading Betfair's market rules

In the ordinary case it's well before inauguration:

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

But in the case of death it gets messy as far as who becomes the next president and depends very much on timing. Interesting article here

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/what-happens-if-a-presidential-candidate-dies-20201009-p563nf.html

Luckily the Betfair market rules are different and simpler to the US constitutional ones

If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

Betfair will want to settle the market sooner rather than later so will have no interest in dragging it out and if all else fails:

Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

As a simple punter all I am interested in is a completely green sheet which I've managed, so can sit back and enjoy the lockdown without my blood pressure rising and falling with every twist and turn over the coming days or even weeks