Covid crash #2 started

adonis10

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

masonic said:

Alexland said:

Another total bloodbath in the markets today. It's relentless. Am starting to wonder if we invested above our volatility tolerance as I haven't a clue how we are going to spend all this money. We will be hiding behind the sofa pretending to be out when the wealth managers come knocking on the door. Some days it would have been better to just stay in bed. The warning signs were flashing and we just kept regularly contributing through the dips like idiots. Should have taken action earlier to cut our gains. So many regrets...

Will this ever end? I can't believe I checked the markets this evening, ruined my day. I won't sleep a wink tonight

Nasdaq closed down 1.5%.  Not everybody will be rejoicing.  

Which way will the herd stampede tomorrow ? 

Yes, the recent news is not good for all sectors, tech stocks that got a Covid boost, gold, etc. That's the danger in having a knee-jerk reaction to previous events and taking radical action like moving everything into a single sector you consider a safe haven.

I'm sure the market has overreacted to some extent and will pull back, but those who will be most disappointed are the ones positioned for the demise of this dead-cat bounce and a fall to March levels, or *much* lower.

Why would anyone think it would fall to March levels? How would that even be possible now that there is a vaccine, surely in covid terms, those days are gone (obviously the future will hold other events that will tank the market)?

itwasntme001

NottinghamKnight said:

The other thing to remember is that all the major central banks have been printing huge amounts of money. So any increase in equities is some reflection of that; the dollar, euro, pound, yen etc that you have now is 'worth' far less than it would have been several years ago which is why most asset prices have increased so much in recent years.

This is only really a problem for those wanting to buy assets and are now at higher prices.  Otherwise the only inflation people need to worry about is consumer price inflation.

Alexland

coastline said:
One of my alerts is now in play with the index 13% above the 200 day moving average . 

While I am not going to take it as a signal to start selling, if the market stays in this range I might cut back on our regular contributions for a while, rebuild our cash position and do some repairs to the house.

pjcox2005

coastline said:

phillw said:

csgohan4 said:
I see that Rolls royce and IAG are holding up, crystal ball if it will be sustained. Because realistically it won't be until probably 2023 at the least before you get the pre covid passenger number possibly, at least according to the IAG CEO.

It's way too early to tell, it depends on how the vaccine, the general economy and the travel industry pans out.
If the world rolls out a successful vaccine next year then we could see a lot of people going on holiday in the summer.
If it doesn't then I wonder whether we'll get back to the majority of people being able to afford to go away as the industry may need to reboot itself.

No idea if our government will buy the Oxford vaccine on top of yesterdays front runner but I see it's 40 million doses needed twice so 20 million people. One third of the population at best. Again as far as I read essential workers and over 50 yo will get the treatment. There's around 22 million over 50 yo in the UK. How families travel together isn't clear as some members won't be vaccinated ?
Markets forecast to open slightly higher in the US but no boom as yesterday. ? One of my alerts is now in play with the index 13% above the 200 day moving average . Slow Stochastics are on the top again although they can stay there a while ? Let's see how things play out. Right or wrong I sold my tracker yesterday for a quick profit of 9% since 28th of October. That'll do me for now.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27848000232&a=226295345&listNum=1

Having a quick look at UK Covid deaths by age and there appears to have been about 623 for 44 and under. The next range is 45 to 64 which accounts for 5,382 of deaths so if you can vaccinate all the over 50s with an effective cure (e.g. the 90% stated) then it's enough to remove the issue to a degree (depending on longevity of immunity). Until then I was still thinking it would take a long time to vaccinate the whole population but i don't think that would be required hence I can understand the hope on the stock market created.

Thrugelmir

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

masonic said:

Alexland said:

Another total bloodbath in the markets today. It's relentless. Am starting to wonder if we invested above our volatility tolerance as I haven't a clue how we are going to spend all this money. We will be hiding behind the sofa pretending to be out when the wealth managers come knocking on the door. Some days it would have been better to just stay in bed. The warning signs were flashing and we just kept regularly contributing through the dips like idiots. Should have taken action earlier to cut our gains. So many regrets...

Will this ever end? I can't believe I checked the markets this evening, ruined my day. I won't sleep a wink tonight

Nasdaq closed down 1.5%.  Not everybody will be rejoicing.  

Which way will the herd stampede tomorrow ? 

Yes, the recent news is not good for all sectors, tech stocks that got a Covid boost, gold, etc. That's the danger in having a knee-jerk reaction to previous events and taking radical action like moving everything into a single sector you consider a safe haven.

I'm sure the market has overreacted to some extent and will pull back, but those who will be most disappointed are the ones positioned for the demise of this dead-cat bounce and a fall to March levels, or *much* lower.

There's winners and losers behind every story. The pie doesn't necessarily get any bigger just gets cut up in a different way.  

webjaved

Big drops in the stock market at the moment, the tech shares are not looking good. It’s a good chance for investors to top up on their shares count. I reckon we will see it falling for the rest of the week.

csgohan4

webjaved said:

Big drops in the stock market at the moment, the tech shares are not looking good. It’s a good chance for investors to top up on their shares count. I reckon we will see it falling for the rest of the week.

Yeah sadly, down 25% on one of my punts, but for the long term however, still around 80% from the pre covid price however

Still up 50% on IAG shares,

Think that's enough speculative investing for me, Can't spare any more unfortunately

I know one colleague who poured in 44k in IAG before the rise, they must have made a fair few coin

masonic

adonis10 said:

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

masonic said:

Alexland said:

Another total bloodbath in the markets today. It's relentless. Am starting to wonder if we invested above our volatility tolerance as I haven't a clue how we are going to spend all this money. We will be hiding behind the sofa pretending to be out when the wealth managers come knocking on the door. Some days it would have been better to just stay in bed. The warning signs were flashing and we just kept regularly contributing through the dips like idiots. Should have taken action earlier to cut our gains. So many regrets...

Will this ever end? I can't believe I checked the markets this evening, ruined my day. I won't sleep a wink tonight

Nasdaq closed down 1.5%.  Not everybody will be rejoicing.  

Which way will the herd stampede tomorrow ? 

Yes, the recent news is not good for all sectors, tech stocks that got a Covid boost, gold, etc. That's the danger in having a knee-jerk reaction to previous events and taking radical action like moving everything into a single sector you consider a safe haven.

I'm sure the market has overreacted to some extent and will pull back, but those who will be most disappointed are the ones positioned for the demise of this dead-cat bounce and a fall to March levels, or *much* lower.

Why would anyone think it would fall to March levels? How would that even be possible now that there is a vaccine, surely in covid terms, those days are gone (obviously the future will hold other events that will tank the market)?

Good question, I don't know if anyone is willing to come out and admit they still believe that, but once emotionally invested to an outcome, it is difficult to let it go.

Playing devils advocate, it is of course possible, we now have Minkvid-20 (or as Trump would call it, the Denmark virus), and it seems likely the Pfizer vaccine and others would be ineffective against that owing to a mutation in a gene encoding the spike protein. Further such zoonotic-mediated mutation is possible, as is natural mutation that would render vaccines ineffective against new strains. The other argument is that the "true" economic impact of the past 9 months, and likely next 6-12 months, has been swept under the carpet and not reflected in market valuations. Channelling my inner Ed Gasket, we are heading for a period of Weimar hyperinflation where cash, bonds, equities etc will all devalue and only those holding gold and silver will escape unscathed. As soon as the general population realises this, there will be an unprecedented flight to safety and markets will tank BIG TIME.

I feel dirty now.

webjaved

csgohan4 said:

webjaved said:

Big drops in the stock market at the moment, the tech shares are not looking good. It’s a good chance for investors to top up on their shares count. I reckon we will see it falling for the rest of the week.

Yeah sadly, down 25% on one of my punts, but for the long term however, still around 80% from the pre covid price however

Still up 50% on IAG shares,

Think that's enough speculative investing for me, Can't spare any more unfortunately

I know one colleague who poured in 44k in IAG before the rise, they must have made a fair few coin

£44k - blimey! He has some heavy pockets!

csgohan4

webjaved said:

csgohan4 said:

webjaved said:

Big drops in the stock market at the moment, the tech shares are not looking good. It’s a good chance for investors to top up on their shares count. I reckon we will see it falling for the rest of the week.

Yeah sadly, down 25% on one of my punts, but for the long term however, still around 80% from the pre covid price however

Still up 50% on IAG shares,

Think that's enough speculative investing for me, Can't spare any more unfortunately

I know one colleague who poured in 44k in IAG before the rise, they must have made a fair few coin

£44k - blimey! He has some heavy pockets!

Well he's semi retired and drawing his pension but still working part time to be fair. I suggested to him about IAG, but  he beat me to it and already bought some a while back. He also bought some astrazenaca but That's  volatile at the moment.