Covid crash #2 started

bowlhead99

EdGasketTheSecond said:

bowlhead99 said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

London7766551 said:

Sailtheworld said:

London7766551 said:

I say the market will crash 60% by the end of January.  There you go a prediction and that would be a real crash! Also said it a month ago or so in the house crash thread. I stand by it and will happily get egg on my face.

What market? What was the valuation a month or so ago when the prediction started?

Out of interest what are you doing to prepare?

I am doing nothing to prepare, I have very little invested in stocks, nor do I own a home. I have cash money saved in the bank, enough to last for some time in my current circumstances, obviously the jobs may go. But I will cross that bridge if I come to it.

I would be extremely worried having just 'cash in the bank'. At the very least you are losing purchasing power to inflation and at the worst you are at risk of bail-ins.

If you are depositing your money within FSCS limits you don't really have anything to worry about from bail-ins.

With more lockdowns, CPI from October to January may be negative, gaining you money vs inflation in the short term rather than losing it. Longer term, who knows. Perhaps we should load up with gold and silver

CPI is a fake government statistic, not a real measure of inflation.

Well, it measures the changing amount of pounds necessary to purchase a basket of goods. Those goods might on average be cheaper in January than they were last month, given we're all locking down and people don't have job certainty etc and may have learned to live without certain goods and services.

DiggerUK

Sailtheworld said:

DiggerUK said:

The_Green_Hornet said:

It is an absolute bloodbath out there....

Your sarcastic praise of the equity markets is beyond deceitful.
If your source is examined going back 3 months and 12 months it shows how unsavoury your comment is. GFC2 is nothing to do with Covid, it's just the unresolved problems from 2007-8 doing a déjà vu. 
Try linking to a source next time..._

........GFC2 is just one of the many rather ill defined guesses on the perpetual reasons why markets will fall list.

Ain't it just....ask a hundred of those who agree that GFC2 is an imminent or near term event and you will get at least a hundred and one responses, followed by a thousand and one plans on how to go forward.

It comes down to the credibility of the siren voices warning of GFC2 being inevitable on one side and the Keep Calm And Carry On voices on the other..._

Prism

DiggerUK said:

Prism said:

DiggerUK said:

The_Green_Hornet said:

It is an absolute bloodbath out there....

Your sarcastic praise of the equity markets is beyond deceitful.
If your source is examined going back 3 months and 12 months it shows how unsavoury your comment is. GFC2 is nothing to do with Covid, it's just the unresolved problems from 2007-8 doing a déjà vu. 
Try linking to a source next time..._

.....the markets are up over 3 and 12 months.

Tosh, go to my link, which is what TGH should have provided. Click on any of today's 'star performers' in UK and Europe that TGH posted and guess what..._

Ah, ok. Deceitful seems a bit strong though - maybe just a lazy snip of the top of that page which happen to represent the local markets. Europe has not been a great investment over this last year.

However the world index, which is the one most people seem to use nowadays is certainly up over 3 and 12 months. Around 3% and 5% respectively. 

DiggerUK

Prism said:

DiggerUK said:

Prism said:

DiggerUK said:

The_Green_Hornet said:

It is an absolute bloodbath out there....

Your sarcastic praise of the equity markets is beyond deceitful.
If your source is examined going back 3 months and 12 months it shows how unsavoury your comment is. GFC2 is nothing to do with Covid, it's just the unresolved problems from 2007-8 doing a déjà vu. 
Try linking to a source next time..._

.....the markets are up over 3 and 12 months.

Tosh, go to my link, which is what TGH should have provided. Click on any of today's 'star performers' in UK and Europe that TGH posted and guess what..._

.......the world index, which is the one most people seem to use nowadays is certainly up over 3 and 12 months. Around 3% and 5% respectively. 

That is extremely dodgey ground to defend, it's a proper curates egg of results. 

If GFC1 was put to bed and all is rosey, how come what's happening is happening in the markets.
The plethora of red flags being raised as Covid progresses are as plain as the nose on my face and the shine on my gold..._

Prism

DiggerUK said:

Prism said:

DiggerUK said:

Prism said:

DiggerUK said:

The_Green_Hornet said:

It is an absolute bloodbath out there....

Your sarcastic praise of the equity markets is beyond deceitful.
If your source is examined going back 3 months and 12 months it shows how unsavoury your comment is. GFC2 is nothing to do with Covid, it's just the unresolved problems from 2007-8 doing a déjà vu. 
Try linking to a source next time..._

.....the markets are up over 3 and 12 months.

Tosh, go to my link, which is what TGH should have provided. Click on any of today's 'star performers' in UK and Europe that TGH posted and guess what..._

.......the world index, which is the one most people seem to use nowadays is certainly up over 3 and 12 months. Around 3% and 5% respectively. 

That is extremely dodgey ground to defend, it's a proper curates egg of results. 

If GFC1 was put to bed and all is rosey, how come what's happening is happening in the markets.
The plethora of red flags being raised as Covid progresses are as plain as the nose on my face and the shine on my gold..._

I don't have a strong opinion on CFC1 or CFC2 themselves. The equity markets certainly seem to be reacting over the longer term to the central bank responses to these two events which is to go up, as they likely should, when debt becomes so cheap and there is little other way to get a return.

Some industries are doing badly and some doing very well. Some country markets are doing badly and some very well. On aggregate the world equity markets are doing fine. Who knows what the future holds but until interest rates begin to go back up I imagine things will continue much like they have over the last 10 years.

AlanP_2

I'm confused.

Have we had GFC2?
Are we currently in GFC2?
Is it a possible event at an unknown point in the future?
When does normal market movements become a GREAT FINANCIAL CRASH?

talexuser

Surely the difference with selling today is there is nowhere else to put your cash in the meantime deliberate era of QE, ultra low interest and relative bond rates?  This is how growth and markets have been kept going since the credit crunch. Even property is now likely for a crash sometime.

The pandemic has changed everything, assuming we get back to normal with a vaccine, the next stage has to be deliberate higher inflation, the only way out without write offs, growth ain't going to do it anytime soon. 

EdGasketTheSecond

The pandemic changed nothing, it is just the pin, not the problem. The economic problems are inherent with policies pursued since the GFC in 2008.

talexuser

EdGasketTheSecond said:

The pandemic changed nothing, 

Sure deficits have not changed at all.

vacheron

talexuser said:

Surely the difference with selling today is there is nowhere else to put your cash in the meantime deliberate era of QE, ultra low interest and relative bond rates?  This is how growth and markets have been kept going since the credit crunch. Even property is now likely for a crash sometime.

The pandemic has changed everything, assuming we get back to normal with a vaccine, the next stage has to be deliberate higher inflation, the only way out without write offs, growth ain't going to do it anytime soon. 

This is exactly my feeling too. There is nowhere else to put money, people are currently unable to spend it in the manner they used to, and other savings options are worse than poor, so the marked demand is driven by the amount of money entering the market rather than the fundamentals of the companies themselves.

This could lead to a second question, what are the chances of a market crash actually occuring when the economy begins to pick up, as there is a risk that if interest and bond rates rise billions of pounds worth of "cautious" money could bail out in droves?