Covid crash #2 started

London7766551

Shocking_Blue said:

London7766551 said:

Sailtheworld said:

London7766551 said:

I say the market will crash 60% by the end of January.  There you go a prediction and that would be a real crash! Also said it a month ago or so in the house crash thread. I stand by it and will happily get egg on my face.

What market? What was the valuation a month or so ago when the prediction started?

Out of interest what are you doing to prepare?

I am doing nothing to prepare, I have very little invested in stocks, nor do I own a home. I have cash money saved in the bank, enough to last for some time in my current circumstances, obviously the jobs may go. But I will cross that bridge if I come to it.

The market as a whole, values of companies will fall, they will become hollow and pop. Even companies which are in a very strong position will adjust. 

The value of the FTSE 100 one month ago was 5942, it is now 5654.

The value of the Dow Jones was 28148, now it is 26966. 

I know these are only the top companies but we can surely use them as a general indicator. As I say above, I am just using common sense than some kind of knowledge of the markets. The crash doesn't have to happen all at once, it could occur over a few weeks or months, not long until my deadline!

If you were to compare it to the crash in the 30s, which actually took a couple of years, for different reasons, and there are more protections today, but our world is so fast today. Anything is possible. 

So, in such a situation, the only response would be to sell up all funds etc?

If it was me I would have done it after the first dip, but I am in no position to advise people.

London7766551

csgohan4 said:

London7766551 said:

Sailtheworld said:

London7766551 said:

I say the market will crash 60% by the end of January.  There you go a prediction and that would be a real crash! Also said it a month ago or so in the house crash thread. I stand by it and will happily get egg on my face.

What market? What was the valuation a month or so ago when the prediction started?

Out of interest what are you doing to prepare?

I am doing nothing to prepare, I have very little invested in stocks, nor do I own a home. I have cash money saved in the bank, enough to last for some time in my current circumstances, obviously the jobs may go. But I will cross that bridge if I come to it.

The market as a whole, values of companies will fall, they will become hollow and pop. Even companies which are in a very strong position will adjust. 

The value of the FTSE 100 one month ago was 5942, it is now 5654.

The value of the Dow Jones was 28148, now it is 26966. 

I know these are only the top companies but we can surely use them as a general indicator. As I say above, I am just using common sense than some kind of knowledge of the markets. The crash doesn't have to happen all at once, it could occur over a few weeks or months, not long until my deadline!

If you were to compare it to the crash in the 30s, which actually took a couple of years, for different reasons, and there are more protections today, but our world is so fast today. Anything is possible. The unnatural way the markets seem to go up rapidly after going down rapidly is also very interesting.... I wonder is someone with vast power buying stocks to keep things afloat? who knows!

if you look at the 2008 drop for the FTS100 they have actually already recovered before covid happened and actually gone up. As with investing, you invest over decades to iron out the lows with the highs, hopefully more highs. 

Your thinking that this will be doomsday is utterly ridiculous, we're all still here even after the great depression. 

I don't really understand your first point. What has recovered and when? If you have years and years and years of course you can invest over that time and overall the value will go up, that is the prescribed method currently. 
 
There was much more leverage in 2008. And besides who said it was a doomsday. I just stated the stock market will fall, that doesn't equal a doomsday. The world will continue to spin, the birds will sing etc etc. We will still go to work, we will still buy food, we will still watch the tele, nobody said it was a "doomsday".

noClue

good debate about "pe useless" above, just saying lol

Thrugelmir

PE can be manipulated. Share buybacks in the US in recent years has flattered to deceive. Real beneficiaries being the management who are rewarded through executive share schemes. 

Sailtheworld

London7766551 said:

Sailtheworld said:

London7766551 said:

I say the market will crash 60% by the end of January.  There you go a prediction and that would be a real crash! Also said it a month ago or so in the house crash thread. I stand by it and will happily get egg on my face.

What market? What was the valuation a month or so ago when the prediction started?

Out of interest what are you doing to prepare?

I am doing nothing to prepare, I have very little invested in stocks, nor do I own a home. I have cash money saved in the bank, enough to last for some time in my current circumstances, obviously the jobs may go. But I will cross that bridge if I come to it.

The market as a whole, values of companies will fall, they will become hollow and pop. Even companies which are in a very strong position will adjust. 

The value of the FTSE 100 one month ago was 5942, it is now 5654.

The value of the Dow Jones was 28148, now it is 26966. 

I know these are only the top companies but we can surely use them as a general indicator. As I say above, I am just using common sense than some kind of knowledge of the markets. The crash doesn't have to happen all at once, it could occur over a few weeks or months, not long until my deadline!

If you were to compare it to the crash in the 30s, which actually took a couple of years, for different reasons, and there are more protections today, but our world is so fast today. Anything is possible. The unnatural way the markets seem to go up rapidly after going down rapidly is also very interesting.... I wonder is someone with vast power buying stocks to keep things afloat? who knows!

OK. FTSE100 2376 and Dow 11259 by 31/01/2021. It's possible but the chances are small. 

I'd be asking myself what I knew that everyone else is so obviously missing. In your case you've answered this by saying you have heightened powers of common sense which trumps market knowledge. Then there's the idea that 'someone' is buying stocks to keep things afloat and, for reasons unknown, is about to stop. A heady mix of overconfidence bias and conspiracy theory.

Have you thought about taking some of that cash and betting on your predicted outcome?

Alexland

Various global tracker ETFs are up again this morning. So far there's nothing been said on this thread that causes me to think we are in a crash situation just some gut feelings accentuated by people's perilous circumstances or limited investing experience. While it gave an opportunity to pickup some extra units at slightly lower prices it didn't even get bad enough to be worth a tilt of existing investments into equities. I expect we will probably have the same chat on the next dip.

EdGasketTheSecond

London7766551 said:

Sailtheworld said:

London7766551 said:

I say the market will crash 60% by the end of January.  There you go a prediction and that would be a real crash! Also said it a month ago or so in the house crash thread. I stand by it and will happily get egg on my face.

What market? What was the valuation a month or so ago when the prediction started?

Out of interest what are you doing to prepare?

I am doing nothing to prepare, I have very little invested in stocks, nor do I own a home. I have cash money saved in the bank, enough to last for some time in my current circumstances, obviously the jobs may go. But I will cross that bridge if I come to it.

I would be extremely worried having just 'cash in the bank'. At the very least you are losing purchasing power to inflation and at the worst you are at risk of bail-ins.

bowlhead99

EdGasketTheSecond said:

London7766551 said:

Sailtheworld said:

London7766551 said:

I say the market will crash 60% by the end of January.  There you go a prediction and that would be a real crash! Also said it a month ago or so in the house crash thread. I stand by it and will happily get egg on my face.

What market? What was the valuation a month or so ago when the prediction started?

Out of interest what are you doing to prepare?

I am doing nothing to prepare, I have very little invested in stocks, nor do I own a home. I have cash money saved in the bank, enough to last for some time in my current circumstances, obviously the jobs may go. But I will cross that bridge if I come to it.

I would be extremely worried having just 'cash in the bank'. At the very least you are losing purchasing power to inflation and at the worst you are at risk of bail-ins.

If you are depositing your money within FSCS limits you don't really have anything to worry about from bail-ins.

With more lockdowns, CPI from October to January may be negative, gaining you money vs inflation in the short term rather than losing it. Longer term, who knows. Perhaps we should load up with gold and silver

London7766551

Sailtheworld said:

London7766551 said:

Sailtheworld said:

London7766551 said:

I say the market will crash 60% by the end of January.  There you go a prediction and that would be a real crash! Also said it a month ago or so in the house crash thread. I stand by it and will happily get egg on my face.

What market? What was the valuation a month or so ago when the prediction started?

Out of interest what are you doing to prepare?

I am doing nothing to prepare, I have very little invested in stocks, nor do I own a home. I have cash money saved in the bank, enough to last for some time in my current circumstances, obviously the jobs may go. But I will cross that bridge if I come to it.

The market as a whole, values of companies will fall, they will become hollow and pop. Even companies which are in a very strong position will adjust. 

The value of the FTSE 100 one month ago was 5942, it is now 5654.

The value of the Dow Jones was 28148, now it is 26966. 

I know these are only the top companies but we can surely use them as a general indicator. As I say above, I am just using common sense than some kind of knowledge of the markets. The crash doesn't have to happen all at once, it could occur over a few weeks or months, not long until my deadline!

If you were to compare it to the crash in the 30s, which actually took a couple of years, for different reasons, and there are more protections today, but our world is so fast today. Anything is possible. The unnatural way the markets seem to go up rapidly after going down rapidly is also very interesting.... I wonder is someone with vast power buying stocks to keep things afloat? who knows!

OK. FTSE100 2376 and Dow 11259 by 31/01/2021. It's possible but the chances are small. 

I'd be asking myself what I knew that everyone else is so obviously missing. In your case you've answered this by saying you have heightened powers of common sense which trumps market knowledge. Then there's the idea that 'someone' is buying stocks to keep things afloat and, for reasons unknown, is about to stop. A heady mix of overconfidence bias and conspiracy theory.

Have you thought about taking some of that cash and betting on your predicted outcome?

EdGasketTheSecond said:

London7766551 said:

Sailtheworld said:

London7766551 said:

I say the market will crash 60% by the end of January.  There you go a prediction and that would be a real crash! Also said it a month ago or so in the house crash thread. I stand by it and will happily get egg on my face.

What market? What was the valuation a month or so ago when the prediction started?

Out of interest what are you doing to prepare?

I am doing nothing to prepare, I have very little invested in stocks, nor do I own a home. I have cash money saved in the bank, enough to last for some time in my current circumstances, obviously the jobs may go. But I will cross that bridge if I come to it.

I would be extremely worried having just 'cash in the bank'. At the very least you are losing purchasing power to inflation and at the worst you are at risk of bail-ins.

I have no wish to invest beyond small amounts. Firstly I need the money in a few years to buy a house, and secondly I think the whole market is going to pop, is there anywhere I could place the money for three/four years before it pops and make money out of it, I don't know and i'm not prepared to risk it.  If the actual financial system were to collapse to a point where the banks go bust, I don't see how stocks would be any safer. I don't think it will collapse.  I'd just start again. Right now I see cash as safer than stocks and it also lines in with my plans for the cash. Far better to store it for three / four years, I don't have time to leave it in stocks. My pension does that anyway.

Sailtheworld

London7766551 said:

Sailtheworld said:

London7766551 said:

Sailtheworld said:

London7766551 said:

I say the market will crash 60% by the end of January.  There you go a prediction and that would be a real crash! Also said it a month ago or so in the house crash thread. I stand by it and will happily get egg on my face.

What market? What was the valuation a month or so ago when the prediction started?

Out of interest what are you doing to prepare?

I am doing nothing to prepare, I have very little invested in stocks, nor do I own a home. I have cash money saved in the bank, enough to last for some time in my current circumstances, obviously the jobs may go. But I will cross that bridge if I come to it.

The market as a whole, values of companies will fall, they will become hollow and pop. Even companies which are in a very strong position will adjust. 

The value of the FTSE 100 one month ago was 5942, it is now 5654.

The value of the Dow Jones was 28148, now it is 26966. 

I know these are only the top companies but we can surely use them as a general indicator. As I say above, I am just using common sense than some kind of knowledge of the markets. The crash doesn't have to happen all at once, it could occur over a few weeks or months, not long until my deadline!

If you were to compare it to the crash in the 30s, which actually took a couple of years, for different reasons, and there are more protections today, but our world is so fast today. Anything is possible. The unnatural way the markets seem to go up rapidly after going down rapidly is also very interesting.... I wonder is someone with vast power buying stocks to keep things afloat? who knows!

OK. FTSE100 2376 and Dow 11259 by 31/01/2021. It's possible but the chances are small. 

I'd be asking myself what I knew that everyone else is so obviously missing. In your case you've answered this by saying you have heightened powers of common sense which trumps market knowledge. Then there's the idea that 'someone' is buying stocks to keep things afloat and, for reasons unknown, is about to stop. A heady mix of overconfidence bias and conspiracy theory.

Have you thought about taking some of that cash and betting on your predicted outcome?

EdGasketTheSecond said:

London7766551 said:

Sailtheworld said:

London7766551 said:

I say the market will crash 60% by the end of January.  There you go a prediction and that would be a real crash! Also said it a month ago or so in the house crash thread. I stand by it and will happily get egg on my face.

What market? What was the valuation a month or so ago when the prediction started?

Out of interest what are you doing to prepare?

I am doing nothing to prepare, I have very little invested in stocks, nor do I own a home. I have cash money saved in the bank, enough to last for some time in my current circumstances, obviously the jobs may go. But I will cross that bridge if I come to it.

I would be extremely worried having just 'cash in the bank'. At the very least you are losing purchasing power to inflation and at the worst you are at risk of bail-ins.

I have no wish to invest beyond small amounts. Firstly I need the money in a few years to buy a house, and secondly I think the whole market is going to pop, is there anywhere I could place the money for three/four years before it pops and make money out of it, I don't know and i'm not prepared to risk it.  If the actual financial system were to collapse to a point where the banks go bust, I don't see how stocks would be any safer. I don't think it will collapse.  I'd just start again. Right now I see cash as safer than stocks and it also lines in with my plans for the cash. Far better to store it for three / four years, I don't have time to leave it in stocks. My pension does that anyway.

For people without the ability to see into the future it's usually best to keep savings for near term spending in cash or premium bonds.

People who can reliably see into the future should obviously monetise that gift.