Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Grumpy_chap

Martyn1981 said:

Looks like German BEV sales may be consistently 10%+ from now on.

German April Plugin Electric Vehicles At 22.1% Share With BEVs Near Record High

April’s combined 22.1% result comprised just shy of 11.8% plugin hybrids (PHEVs) and 10.4% full battery electrics (BEVs), the second highest ever BEV share after the December 2020 peak (14%). 2021 year-to-date cumulative plugin share now stands at 21.8%, up almost 3x from 7.6% at this point in 2020.

I have seen your posts on BEV and PHEV market share. 
In the current climate (COVID), how relevant are any figures related to market share in any context or any "cut"?  As well as market share, size of the market must be important to consider - once we get back to "normal" and the big fleet orders resume, will the high BEV market share continue?

ABrass

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Looks like German BEV sales may be consistently 10%+ from now on.

German April Plugin Electric Vehicles At 22.1% Share With BEVs Near Record High

April’s combined 22.1% result comprised just shy of 11.8% plugin hybrids (PHEVs) and 10.4% full battery electrics (BEVs), the second highest ever BEV share after the December 2020 peak (14%). 2021 year-to-date cumulative plugin share now stands at 21.8%, up almost 3x from 7.6% at this point in 2020.

I have seen your posts on BEV and PHEV market share. 
In the current climate (COVID), how relevant are any figures related to market share in any context or any "cut"?  As well as market share, size of the market must be important to consider - once we get back to "normal" and the big fleet orders resume, will the high BEV market share continue?

Since EVs are mostly supply limited, there's a chance that they will drop as a proportion, but also the supply is constantly expanding which opposes that.

For the example of Germany, the total plugin proportion was 22% whilst the market was down a quarter. Assuming every single extra car would be an ICE that'd drop the plugin proportion to 16.5%. Which is merely more than double.

My bet is that next year it'll be an even higher % when the Model Y is finally available in Europe.

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Looks like German BEV sales may be consistently 10%+ from now on.

German April Plugin Electric Vehicles At 22.1% Share With BEVs Near Record High

April’s combined 22.1% result comprised just shy of 11.8% plugin hybrids (PHEVs) and 10.4% full battery electrics (BEVs), the second highest ever BEV share after the December 2020 peak (14%). 2021 year-to-date cumulative plugin share now stands at 21.8%, up almost 3x from 7.6% at this point in 2020.

I have seen your posts on BEV and PHEV market share. 
In the current climate (COVID), how relevant are any figures related to market share in any context or any "cut"?  As well as market share, size of the market must be important to consider - once we get back to "normal" and the big fleet orders resume, will the high BEV market share continue?

But the PEV share was rising before Covid, when things were "normal"?

Will the big fleet orders contain more PEV's and shift the market share up, not down (depending on supply limitations)?

I'm more than happy to bet the farm, that BEV sales and market share will keep growing year after year after year. In fact, I'll go further and suggest that their market share will grow faster than their actual sale numbers, once the Osborne effect kicks in, as will the fear of losing money on ICEV's, and the sales of ICEV's will drop faster as people start to delay purchasing new vehicles because BEV's won't be ramping fast enough.

Extreme example, let's say production of BEV's reaches 25%, and ICEV's falls to 75%, but demand for BEV's has risen to 75% with ICEV demand at 25%. What we might see, is 25% buy BEV's, 25% buy ICEV's, another 25% (half of the remaining BEV demand) can't wait / delay, so buy an ICEV, and the remaining 25% delay buying a vehicle.
Result, sales of cars fall to 75%, and BEV's account for 33% of sales.

Martyn1981

Solarchaser said:

Martyn1981 said:

Solarchaser said:

It's been a long wait, but my tm3 gets delivered later this month.

Did your ship come in (literally) yesterday?  
How many 100's of miles is it to Southampton for you?

Oh, I dunno, how do I check?
I've got a delivery date of 29th May.

Buy I'm thinking of changing from Blue to white, I don't think the blue is a great colour.... but white is the standard colour 

I noticed on another forum some eagle eyed poster mention that a ship had landed yesterday in Southampton. Other ship news that tickled me was that a ship landed a few days ago in Israel with 1,500 TM3's, a figure greater than all BEV sales in 2020!

You could save the £1k, go white, then put the money towards a wrap. I chatted with a TM3P owner in a local carpark for nearly an hour last week about her car, and the gorgeous wrap, and a side benefit is that wraps/protective films are far thicker than normal paint, so add protection, and also leave a new looking car when removed. But I've no idea how this works with leases.
Also worth noting that with wraps, you may need to let DVLA know the colour change, and one owner (on a Tesla forum Wifey follows) had his insurance revoked when he informed them - kind of funny, and he had no trouble getting new insurance elsewhere, but for some companies wraps, body kits etc etc are red flags warning them of boy racers, so they won't insure them at all ..... made me giggle - I've still got the  giant 'Screaming Chicken' from the bonnet of my 81 Pontiac hanging on the wall, and when I checked it just about fits the TM3 ..... when does ostentatious carp become retro again?

Martyn1981

Will we, won't we?
Obviously the move towards autonomous vehicles will mean much safer roads as the level of driving by these vehicles will be much 'better' than we hoomans manage. But it's still more than a little scary, and I suspect we will worry about an autonomous car error driving us straight into a brick wall, or over a cliff, rather than the reduced (overall) risk of accidents and injury.

The UK Might Allow “Self-Driving” Cars On The Roads This Year

There’s a chance that self-driving vehicles will be allowed on the roads in the UK by the end of this year, the BBC reports. Automated lane-keeping systems (ALKS) would be the first type of hands-free driving that is legalized, said the Department for Transport. This technology controls the position and speed of a car in a single lane. The law will limit it to 37 miles per hour. Insurers have a warning, though, and point out that the government’s definition of ALKS as “self-driving” is misleading.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) pointed out that the technology could improve road safety by reducing human error. The company’s chief executive, Mike Haws, shared his thoughts: “Automated driving systems could prevent 47,000 serious accidents and save 3,900 lives over the next decade through their ability to reduce the single largest cause of road accidents — human error.”

He also pointed out, “Technologies such as Automated Lane Keeping Systems will pave the way for higher levels of automation in future — and these advances will unleash Britain’s potential to be a world leader in the development and use of these technologies, creating essential jobs while ensuring our roads remain among the safest on the planet.”

Speaking of entirely rational, irrational concerns:

Public Fear Of Autonomous Vehicles: A Problem We Can’t Just Ignore

I know many readers will find these fears irrational (and obviously the criminal acts against AVs aren’t justified), but even if you’re the biggest fan of autonomous vehicle technology, it’s not something the industry can afford to just ignore and hope it goes away. The bad public perception of AVs is something that needs to be addressed, and not in a token manner. There are real people with real fears here that need to really be addressed if the industry is going to thrive long term.
People need to feel like AVs will enhance their personal freedom, not degrade it. Changing that perception with meaningful industry reform and less rhetoric against personal ownership/control can go a long way.

Martyn1981

I suspect folk are bored to tears with my constant excited posts about the growing percentage of BEV sales, and how they are hitting or exceeding the point at which disruption tends to kick into high gear (around 5-8%), but guess what ... here I go again.

It all started with some news that Tesla had already 'sold' the rest of its Q2 production, which in early May is a bit of a shocker. I didn't post any articles, or mention it, as there was no real confirmation, and my own test looking at delivery times on the UK Tesla site, suggest June deliveries are still available. I also read and watched comments from posters and Vloggers who'd done similar in other locations, such as June or July in some US states, which neither confirms nor denies the possibilty.

But the story is gathering steam, though it may relate to a personal experience, rather than all Tesla's, since the company limits supplies as the quarter progresses, to minimise stock and 'in transit', so even in the US, quarter end deliveries in the N. East will trickle down, whilst the West coast will continue, in order to complete deliveries within that quarters figures.

But that's not the important part, what is also happening in the US is that demand for new BEV's is starting to rise, and the price for secondhand BEV's has shot up several $,000's since March, and that BEV's spend roughly half the time of ICEV's on for sale sites.

Put all the pieces together, and accept the risk that it might actually be a blip, or mean nothing, but it might suggest that BEV's are finally starting to break out, and may be approaching the start of disruption in the US, which could result in really good news in the next few years.

I can add links etc, but all will contain supposition at this point, so I'd rather not, but instead repeat that this news, or similar, seems to be popping up all over the place the last week or so. Fingers crossed the tide has turned in the US?

EVandPV

By 2030, it won’t make sense to own a petrol or diesel car

https://thedriven.io/2021/05/06/by-2030-it-wont-make-sense-to-own-a-petrol-or-diesel-car/amp/

QrizB

EVandPV said:

By 2030, it won’t make sense to own a petrol or diesel car

I could easily be wrong but I guess unleaded petrol will go the way that lead-replacement petrol went when leaded fuel was banned (most readers of this thread will be old enough to remember it). At first every filling station will carry it, then (after 4 or 5 years, maybe) it will become harder to find at the small outlets, and eventually (after ten years?) you won't find it anywhere other than very specialist retailers.

Diesel might persist for a bit longer due to HGVs, agricultural / plant use and so on.

Edit to add: the final nail in the coffin will be when filling stations come to replace their underground tanks. The capital cost might be too much if sales volumes fall significantly.

buglawton

Martyn1981 said:

EricMears said:

Martyn1981 said:
Yes, it was more about the idea/principle than the exact figure given in the comment. The new London taxi's have a 1.5lt 3cyl range extender engine. I'm sure it works fine and safe in petrol mode, but not nearly as well as when it's been charged.

Should act as an extra incentive to keep it fully charged !  Hopefully, drivers won't decide to sit around with RX running (though if it charges faster and cheaper from mains rather than ICE there shouldn't be any temptation to do that)

Yep, cheaper to run on leccy. Just repeating a post that a lady posted on the old EV thread on the motoring forum perhaps 3yrs(?) back. She does about 50k miles pa for work, and going back a couple of BEV's she had a BMW i3Rx. She used to do her paperwork whilst the car charged, and after a couple of years when her car was to be replaced, she went for just a regular BMW i3 as she'd used the Rx so little.

That really opened my eyes to what is possible, if you are happy to work around what a BEV offers, rather than focus on how it differs from an ICE.

I recently watched a Fully Charged episode on another London Taxi offering, this one BEV only and based on a Nissan e-NV200 Evalia.

Dynamo Taxi - 100% Electric Cabs | SUBSCRIBE to Fully Charged PLUS

In this new product showcase Robert found out all about the 100% electric Dynamo Taxi.
This might look like an ordinary black cab, but this impressive Dynamo taxi is 100% electric!
Based on the Nissan e-NV200 Evalia, this is the only fully electric black cab that has been built with the driver in mind. The cheaper running costs, coupled with exemptions from London ULEZ and congestion charges, make this the most cost effective taxi currently available.
It delivers up to 187 miles range, can rapid charge in an hour and looks the business. Expect to see more and more of these in cities across the UK very soon!

Black cabs are in any case exempt from London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ).
https://airqualitynews.com/2019/07/09/londons-black-cabs-take-up-30m-of-zero-emission-fund/

JKenH

Electric car insurance in UK ‘is £45 less than for petrol or diesel vehicle’

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/may/08/electric-car-insurance-in-uk-is-45-less-than-for-petrol-or-diesel-vehicle?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other