Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

NigeWick said:

michaels said:

  Bigger question is how big the market is for that segment given how many competitors are entering.  Not sure Tesla has any cost advantage over legacy automakers who are producing at volume.

Tesla are making a profit from BEVs, are any other makers in competing segments? We need to remember that Tesla is in the game to increase take up of BEVs and renewable energy, not as others, just to make a profit.

Sorry to waffle on about Tesla, but it's fair to say the transition wouldn't be where it is today without them releasing a BEV fox in the ICEV henhouse.

A lot of the critics will point to regulatory credits making Tesla profitable, without which they would be just short. Of course that only works if you ignore the money being put aside for Elon's salary (share) package, which wouldn't be so high without the share price rise ..... due to profitability ..... circular issue!

So, the credits be they ZEV (zero emission vehicle) credits in the US, or the payments from companies bundling their sales with Tesla in Europe to meet EU + UK fleet emissions targets, are paid to Tesla by other companies as that's a cheaper option than paying fines/fees. If they paid the fines/fees, then their vehicles would cost more, and Tesla could sell at a higher price. So either way Tesla would get that money, and now be profitable.

But the crucial thing to remember with the payments Tesla is getting, is that they are from competing companies who simply can't build enough EV's fast enough to meet regulations. Another way of looking at that, is that the competition is paying Tesla to put them out of business!!!!!

Less dramatically, these payments are hitting profitability for the existing companies, whilst boosting it for Tesla, and add up to something like one new Giga factory every two quarters for Tesla - effectively funding their expansion, and reducing their CAPEX & OPEX for their cars as each factory is a little bit more efficient than the last.

So the competition is behind, unprofitable, and chasing a profitable competitor with higher production, and falling costs, whose expansion is being funded by 'the competition'. As posted previously by ABrass, the VWG look to be taking this seriously, and whilst I almost despise Toyota for their BEV delaying tactics, I assume that they can pivot fast enough to BEV's, once they realise they bet on the wrong horse, (or perhaps bet against the right horse). But I'm really not sure how the others will cope, there will be lots of downsizing and amalgamations (like Stelantis) to come I suspect.

It's certainly fun to watch this transition/disruption in real time. It's probably one of, if not the biggest and fastest* in history.

*Actually, that's probably the switch from mobile phones to smart phones (or something similar), but, when you take cost, and life expectancy into account, ICEV's to BEV's is a real monster.

Martyn1981

Expectations for EV numbers to rise significantly this decade, though I suspect the numbers will grow faster than this as the disruption kicks into gear.

The article also mentions the impact on oil demand that EV's will have. This is really important, as oil production has grown around the World, and falling demand due to EV's (just Chinese BEV buses has had a large impact), could mean we hit 'peak price' very soon. After which, oversupply will push the price down and oil production will become less and less profitable, almost certainly crushing the tar sands industry in Canada, and the fracking industry in the US, which also produce some of the most GHG intensive oil, due to their methods and/or CO2(e) emissions.

Electric vehicles on world’s roads expected to increase to 145m by 2030

The number of electric cars, vans, trucks and buses on the world’s roads is on course to increase from 11m vehicles to 145m by the end of the decade, which could wipe out demand for millions of barrels of oil every day.

A report by the International Energy Agency has found that there could be 230m electric vehicles worldwide by 2030 if governments agreed to encourage the production of enough low-carbon vehicles to stay within global climate targets.

Martyn1981

I thought this was interesting/funny, if only for the Babushka Doll like situation, where we have a news article, reporting on a Vlog, that's reporting on Sandy Munro, reporting on Tesla ..... got that!

I've mentioned Steven Mark Ryan and his channel 'Solving the money problem' before, as it's a good way to get additional insights on stories and news pieces, whether you watch the full original articles or not.

I think this article covers things pretty well, unless you are a BEV addict like me, and want to go all in with the original vid, and or commentary vid.

Sandy Munro Shares His Thoughts On Why Tesla Has No Competitors, Tesla Cybertruck & Octovalve & Gigapress, & More

In his latest video on Solving The Money Problem, Steven Mark Ryan shared his thoughts on Sandy Munro, who recently spoke about Tesla’s giant gigapress, its huge casting machine, the octovalve and heat pump, the Cybertruck’s exoskeleton, and the crash safety of the Cybertruck. Munro also speaks about Tesla’s 4680 battery cells, the importance of work ethic, and his thoughts on Tesla’s decision to not spend money on advertising nor having a PR department. 

In the video, Ryan shared Munro’s clips and added his own comments throughout. What stood out to me was the headline emphasizing that Tesla has no competitors. Sure, there’s legacy auto, and Elon Musk once noted that the millions of gas cars coming out daily are competition, but there is no actual competition that will “destroy” Tesla. Also, there’s another fleet of rising EV startups that will join Tesla in the fight to electrify transport.

“Anyway, who’s the biggest competitor to Tesla?

“None. There are no competitors to Tesla. But when they do come, they’ll be Chinese.” — Sandy Munro

QrizB

“Anyway, who’s the biggest competitor to Tesla?

“None. There are no competitors to Tesla. But when they do come, they’ll be Chinese.” — Sandy Munro

That's a pretty bold claim, and I can only assume they are only looking at US statistics. The most recent European stats I can find show the Renault Zoe out-selling the Tesla model 3 and the VW ID3 not that far behind.

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/renault-zoe-knocks-tesla-model-3-off-top-spot-to-become-europes-best-selling-ev/215180

Martyn1981

QrizB said:

“Anyway, who’s the biggest competitor to Tesla?

“None. There are no competitors to Tesla. But when they do come, they’ll be Chinese.” — Sandy Munro

That's a pretty bold claim, and I can only assume they are only looking at US statistics. The most recent European stats I can find show the Renault Zoe out-selling the Tesla model 3 and the VW ID3 not that far behind.

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/renault-zoe-knocks-tesla-model-3-off-top-spot-to-become-europes-best-selling-ev/215180

Hiya. TBF to Sandy, I think he's looking at the bigger picture, regarding technology, profitability etc etc. I like him and respect him, but perhaps I'm biased. 

One of the issues he's covered before, and also mentions in this vid, are the benefits and cost savings of mass production, so really we do need to consider global sales, however, I have to say, I thought the TM3 had topped BEV sales in Europe in Q1, now that production has been ramped up in China, to make up for the 2020 shortfall in US exports as they switched some TM3 production to TMY, for N. American deliveries, but I'm more than a little confused.

I'm very fond of the Zoe, and their sales have been consistently solid, but the ID3 deliveries are looking a bit 'odd'. One theory, and it may be complete BS, is that they boosted 2020 'deliveries', by selling a significant number to dealers, to impact their fleet emissions figures for 2020, so registrations may be down in 2021 because of those vehicles now reaching customers. TBH late 2020 and early 2021 BEV deliveries may be outliers, but most importantly, the numbers keep going up overall.

Martyn1981

Martyn1981 said:

I thought the TM3 had topped BEV sales in Europe in Q1, now that production has been ramped up in China, to make up for the 2020 shortfall in US exports as they switched some TM3 production to TMY, for N. American deliveries, but I'm more than a little confused.

Just dawned on me, that Sandy Munro's comments may not make as much sense out of context, and my waffling about mass production, so I've pulled together some articles for BEV sales in Europe (and France and Germany), and also for the World, to kinda show the difference between good sales, and multiple sales from the same brand, v's Tesla's approach at driving down BEV costs* by going seriously LARGE.

*Kinda weird to put Tesla and a suggestion of low cost in the same sentence, but hopefully you know what I mean - Just realised if I'm replying to my own post, then I was just talking to myself ..... and again ..... and again ...... timeloop what's that?



First a quick comparison of the TM3's to the Zoe (and e-208) in France, and the ID3 (and E-UP!) in Germany, but note any March figures are overly flattering to Tesla as TM3 deliveries are geared towards the last month of each quarter:

France Hits 16.1% Plugin Share, Tesla Model 3 At Record 4,524 Sales

TM3    Mch 4,524   - Q1 5,763
Renault Zoe    Mch 1,519
Peugeut e-208    Mch 1,800(e)   - Q1 4,600(e)

Germany Plugin Electric Share Hits 22.5% In March — 2.4× Year-On-Year Share Growth

TM3 Q1   5,445
VW E-UP Q1  6,841
VW ID3 Q1  5,863




On to European sales totals, where things get a little more interesting:

Tesla Model 3 New #1 In Hot European Market, & Plugin Vehicles Get 16% Market Share!

The top 3 BEV's for Q1 are

TM3    31,200
Zoe     12,600
ID3      11,772

It's noticeable that excluding Tesla, all the other vehicles in the top 20 have similarish sales figures.




And now for the main event, world sales quarter one

Tesla Siblings & Wuling Mini EV Shine In Hot EV Market — Global EV Sales Report

The top 3 are:

TM3     -  126,716
Wuling Mini EV    -  96.674
TMY    -  56,064

with
Zoe    - 12,834
ID3    - 11,772

and of note, as these were mass production BEV's launched before the TM3
Leaf    - 15,068
Bolt     - 10,847




Lastly, in their recent earnings call, Tesla, or at least Elon, suggested that the TMY might be the top selling car, of any kind, in the World in 2022 by revenue, and 2023 by volume. That puts it up against the cheap Toyota Corolla for both volume and revenue, which currently sells somewhere in the 1.2-1.5m pa. And if it includes light trucks, the Ford F-150 sales of around  800-900k pa, but which I think have an average sales price of nearly $60k.


If Tesla get TM3 sales to around 500k this year, and TMY to around 1m in 2022/23, then this helps to put in perspective what Sandy Munro is suggesting when he talks about Tesla's competition (or current lack of) in the BEV market, and a possible insight into how costs of production may be impacted by the decision to mass produce, or MASS produce.

Grumpy_chap

Interesting figures from @Martyn1981 but to what extent are any figures relating to market share of different power-trains adversely influenced by COVID?

With everyone in lockdown, for example, demand for diesel which is best suited to high-mileage motorway bashing is inherently depressed as there are very few people doing a high mileage going anywhere in anything.

Many other reasons why overall registration numbers are deflated currently.

Now, the trick will be if EV's can take up the slack when the overall registration numbers can recover.

Solarchaser

I can tell you as a person who works for a company of which 200+ users have company cars,(in its UK branch) covid has affected very little, because a 4 year lease, is a 4 year lease.

However my company car 4 year lease ran out 18 months ago, and the company was pushing more dirty diesels.
I elected to hold onto mine and leverage the companies apparent green credentials. 
It's been a long wait, but my tm3 gets delivered later this month.

Obviously I wasn't the only one pushing against dirty diesels. 

Tesla has a shanghai ship landing mid this month, and another mid next month, so expect to see a few more of those T cars on the roads in the next few months. 

Nothing to do with 1% tax this year.....

Martyn1981

I'd have thought, but obviously reality may be different, that anyone considering purchasing a diesel (or petrol) for high mileage use, would be better off with a BEV?
In total cost of ownership (TCO) the BEV will work out cheaper than the ICEV, but for those that can't, or don't want to buy the car, then leasing may bring in savings even faster. I recall a news piece on BEV's on breakfast news a year or so back, and they had a nice couple on explaining why they were getting a BEV (TM3). The man explained that whilst the Tesla was much more expensive than his current car in terms of list price, when he added the lease cost to the running costs, it worked out cheaper than the lease + running costs of a lower value ICEV, so they were actually better off each month, and had a significant upgrade in terms of the car.

With the growing number of cheaper BEV's available, that still have excellent range, I can only assume that the economics have improved.

michaels

There are rumbles of 6 months delays on the giga Berlin model y.
https://electrek.co/2021/05/03/tesla-facing-6-month-delay-in-opening-gigafactory-berlin-german-report/
Given the competition, especially in Europe, in this segment, I can see Tesla looking at shipping M Y from China to fill the gap rather than just ceding the segment to VW and the Koreans.