Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Solarchaser

I have to say I find it quite grating to see their adverts for "self charging hybrids"
I mean, yeah technically it's true, but its also more than a little disingenuous. 

So it's good to see them be pushed into the 21st century 

Martyn1981

Solarchaser said:

I have to say I find it quite grating to see their adverts for "self charging hybrids"
I mean, yeah technically it's true, but its also more than a little disingenuous. 

So it's good to see them be pushed into the 21st century 

I really disliked that sell line. Apparently Toyota is now to review its policy over knocking BEV's, about time too. I just watched an episode of E for Electric, and the guest Tom Moloughney, who is usually very balanced and fair, is pretty pee'd off with Toyota, and went as far as mentioning that their UK adverts used the tag line - "we choose not to plug in". It struck me that on a US based show, the UK had stood out.

Oh well, at least they've seen the light at last.

NigeWick

Martyn1981 said:

I'm thinking they may have acted just in time, since Elon suggested yesterday that the TMY might become the top selling car in the World in 2022 or possibly 2023. Maybe he knows what he's talking about, or maybe he didn't realise that the Corolla sells ~1.3m models pa. Could the TMY ramp up to 1m by 2023, whilst the Corolla falls to 1m as sales move to BEV's ...... I don't know?

With Fremont, Shanghai and Berlin churning out model Ys, I expect Tesla will be able to make a million a year by 2023. They may have another factory open by then too, India? Don't forget, the Y is cheaper to make than the 3 so they just may drop the price to sell more.

michaels

NigeWick said:

Martyn1981 said:

I'm thinking they may have acted just in time, since Elon suggested yesterday that the TMY might become the top selling car in the World in 2022 or possibly 2023. Maybe he knows what he's talking about, or maybe he didn't realise that the Corolla sells ~1.3m models pa. Could the TMY ramp up to 1m by 2023, whilst the Corolla falls to 1m as sales move to BEV's ...... I don't know?

With Fremont, Shanghai and Berlin churning out model Ys, I expect Tesla will be able to make a million a year by 2023. They may have another factory open by then too, India? Don't forget, the Y is cheaper to make than the 3 so they just may drop the price to sell more.

Model Y is also the first vehicle due to come out of Austin.  Bigger question is how big the market is for that segment given how many competitors are entering.  Not sure Tesla has any cost advantage over legacy automakers who are producing at volume.

Martyn1981

NigeWick said:

Martyn1981 said:

I'm thinking they may have acted just in time, since Elon suggested yesterday that the TMY might become the top selling car in the World in 2022 or possibly 2023. Maybe he knows what he's talking about, or maybe he didn't realise that the Corolla sells ~1.3m models pa. Could the TMY ramp up to 1m by 2023, whilst the Corolla falls to 1m as sales move to BEV's ...... I don't know?

With Fremont, Shanghai and Berlin churning out model Ys, I expect Tesla will be able to make a million a year by 2023. They may have another factory open by then too, India? Don't forget, the Y is cheaper to make than the 3 so they just may drop the price to sell more.

You may be right about 1m TMY's by 2023, as it seems Elon suggested the TMY could top the list in 2022 by revenue, and possibly sales numbers by 2023.

Given all the cost advantages Tesla has (higher production, lower CAPEX & OPEX per car, retail sales revenue (not wholesale), internal supply lines, software specialists etc etc), and the potential explosion in BEV demand, but limited supply, then perhaps he's right and ~1m TMY sales may be possible in 2023.

TM2* sales could be insane, I wonder if they are sandbagging on that too, and will announce something sooner, rather than later.

*No official name yet for the smaller model being designed in China, with a target price closer to $25k, perhaps £25-£30k (inc taxes).

ABrass

michaels said:

NigeWick said:

Martyn1981 said:

I'm thinking they may have acted just in time, since Elon suggested yesterday that the TMY might become the top selling car in the World in 2022 or possibly 2023. Maybe he knows what he's talking about, or maybe he didn't realise that the Corolla sells ~1.3m models pa. Could the TMY ramp up to 1m by 2023, whilst the Corolla falls to 1m as sales move to BEV's ...... I don't know?

With Fremont, Shanghai and Berlin churning out model Ys, I expect Tesla will be able to make a million a year by 2023. They may have another factory open by then too, India? Don't forget, the Y is cheaper to make than the 3 so they just may drop the price to sell more.

Model Y is also the first vehicle due to come out of Austin.  Bigger question is how big the market is for that segment given how many competitors are entering.  Not sure Tesla has any cost advantage over legacy automakers who are producing at volume.

The only ones (outside of China) attempting to produce at serious volume at the moment are VWG. Everyone else is mucking around with 100,000 units per annum or less.

The Mustang, which is a true competitor for the Y, is only trying to hit 50,000 this year, that's model S or X volumes.

michaels

ABrass said:

michaels said:

NigeWick said:

Martyn1981 said:

I'm thinking they may have acted just in time, since Elon suggested yesterday that the TMY might become the top selling car in the World in 2022 or possibly 2023. Maybe he knows what he's talking about, or maybe he didn't realise that the Corolla sells ~1.3m models pa. Could the TMY ramp up to 1m by 2023, whilst the Corolla falls to 1m as sales move to BEV's ...... I don't know?

With Fremont, Shanghai and Berlin churning out model Ys, I expect Tesla will be able to make a million a year by 2023. They may have another factory open by then too, India? Don't forget, the Y is cheaper to make than the 3 so they just may drop the price to sell more.

Model Y is also the first vehicle due to come out of Austin.  Bigger question is how big the market is for that segment given how many competitors are entering.  Not sure Tesla has any cost advantage over legacy automakers who are producing at volume.

The only ones (outside of China) attempting to produce at serious volume at the moment are VWG. Everyone else is mucking around with 100,000 units per annum or less.

The Mustang, which is a true competitor for the Y, is only trying to hit 50,000 this year, that's model S or X volumes.

How about the Koreans, Mercedes/BMW, Volvo etc.  Most of the latter are manufacturing EVs in China so can probably ramp if needed. And of course the Chinese brand made in China manufacturers like MG.  I'd love to see the model Y and is competitors sell in 'world's most popular car' volumes but I suspect prices would need to be more at Quashqai/Kuga levels for this to happen?

ABrass

michaels said:

ABrass said:

michaels said:

NigeWick said:

Martyn1981 said:

I'm thinking they may have acted just in time, since Elon suggested yesterday that the TMY might become the top selling car in the World in 2022 or possibly 2023. Maybe he knows what he's talking about, or maybe he didn't realise that the Corolla sells ~1.3m models pa. Could the TMY ramp up to 1m by 2023, whilst the Corolla falls to 1m as sales move to BEV's ...... I don't know?

With Fremont, Shanghai and Berlin churning out model Ys, I expect Tesla will be able to make a million a year by 2023. They may have another factory open by then too, India? Don't forget, the Y is cheaper to make than the 3 so they just may drop the price to sell more.

Model Y is also the first vehicle due to come out of Austin.  Bigger question is how big the market is for that segment given how many competitors are entering.  Not sure Tesla has any cost advantage over legacy automakers who are producing at volume.

The only ones (outside of China) attempting to produce at serious volume at the moment are VWG. Everyone else is mucking around with 100,000 units per annum or less.

The Mustang, which is a true competitor for the Y, is only trying to hit 50,000 this year, that's model S or X volumes.

How about the Koreans, Mercedes/BMW, Volvo etc.  Most of the latter are manufacturing EVs in China so can probably ramp if needed. And of course the Chinese brand made in China manufacturers like MG.  I'd love to see the model Y and is competitors sell in 'world's most popular car' volumes but I suspect prices would need to be more at Quashqai/Kuga levels for this to happen?

Given that the Quashqai shipped 300,000 units last year, whilst the 3 and Y together shipped 450,000. And this year the Model 3 and Model Y are both expected to ship more than 300,000 individually, it's an interesting comparison.

It takes half a million to get into the top 20. 720,000 to get to top 10 and 820,000 to get top 5. I'd be pleasantly surprised if they got either in the top 20 this year but I'd be surprised if one or both isn't next year.

Martyn1981

ABrass said:

michaels said:

ABrass said:

michaels said:

NigeWick said:

Martyn1981 said:

I'm thinking they may have acted just in time, since Elon suggested yesterday that the TMY might become the top selling car in the World in 2022 or possibly 2023. Maybe he knows what he's talking about, or maybe he didn't realise that the Corolla sells ~1.3m models pa. Could the TMY ramp up to 1m by 2023, whilst the Corolla falls to 1m as sales move to BEV's ...... I don't know?

With Fremont, Shanghai and Berlin churning out model Ys, I expect Tesla will be able to make a million a year by 2023. They may have another factory open by then too, India? Don't forget, the Y is cheaper to make than the 3 so they just may drop the price to sell more.

Model Y is also the first vehicle due to come out of Austin.  Bigger question is how big the market is for that segment given how many competitors are entering.  Not sure Tesla has any cost advantage over legacy automakers who are producing at volume.

The only ones (outside of China) attempting to produce at serious volume at the moment are VWG. Everyone else is mucking around with 100,000 units per annum or less.

The Mustang, which is a true competitor for the Y, is only trying to hit 50,000 this year, that's model S or X volumes.

How about the Koreans, Mercedes/BMW, Volvo etc.  Most of the latter are manufacturing EVs in China so can probably ramp if needed. And of course the Chinese brand made in China manufacturers like MG.  I'd love to see the model Y and is competitors sell in 'world's most popular car' volumes but I suspect prices would need to be more at Quashqai/Kuga levels for this to happen?

Given that the Quashqai shipped 300,000 units last year, whilst the 3 and Y together shipped 450,000. And this year the Model 3 and Model Y are both expected to ship more than 300,000 individually, it's an interesting comparison.

It takes half a million to get into the top 20. 720,000 to get to top 10 and 820,000 to get top 5. I'd be pleasantly surprised if they got either in the top 20 this year but I'd be surprised if one or both isn't next year.

Some speculation, and also Wall street estimates, seem to have Tesla producing somewhere in the high 800k to low 900k this year. There have also been some interesting rumours and leaks from various parts suppliers about growing orders. The supplier for the tyre pressure monitors for the TMY claims that they have been asked to supply 4m, up from 1m a year, suggesting that production from now(ish) over the next year could be 1m TMY's. Note - Berlin will produce TMY's first, before starting TM3 production.

If Tesla produces 900k vehicles this year, then I'd guess at 60k S/X, 350-400k TM3's and 450k-500k TMY's. There may be a few Cybertrucks too, but production probably won't be significant till next year, and (again rumours) there may be pre-orders for the CT exceeding 1m, possibly 2m, already.

I suspect that Tesla, and other BEV's will be boosted in reaching higher spots by falling ICEV sales, and not just those buying a BEV instead of an ICEV, but also those putting off a purchase of an ICEV (due to the Osborne effect) but not buying a BEV due to lack of supply. We will most likely see a drop in car sales by the mid decade as ICEV demand falls faster than supply shrinks, whilst BEV demand grows faster than supply can grow?

NigeWick

michaels said:

  Bigger question is how big the market is for that segment given how many competitors are entering.  Not sure Tesla has any cost advantage over legacy automakers who are producing at volume.

Tesla are making a profit from BEVs, are any other makers in competing segments? We need to remember that Tesla is in the game to increase take up of BEVs and renewable energy, not as others, just to make a profit.