Will Brexit happen?

Takedap

lvader wrote: »

It doesn’t take a genius to work out that it is better for someone like Carney to side on caution and he can’t take into account steps that only the Government can take to mitigate any drop in the economy. Similarly he has no control over other factors like the global economy as a whole. The range of possible outcomes has a huge variation. We could have no Brexit and economic disaster and we could have Brexit and still get growth. What he provides are educated guesses.

As opposed to uneducated hopes & appeals to faith.

StevieJ

Conina wrote: »

I wish more people "got" this , it's not that a no deal is wanted but frankly the country is being pushed into it by remainers who are actively preventing any other option being negotiated. Why on earth would the EU bother when they see a divided parliament and (still) a possibility of the UK remaining by default?

Nothing to do with EU bothering. I think he would go for a border in the Irish sea once he has ditched his Irish backers (I think this was suggested by the EU in the first place)

Herzlos

lvader wrote: »

It doesn’t take a genius to work out that it is better for someone like Carney to side on caution and he can’t take into account steps that only the Government can take to mitigate any drop in the economy. Similarly he has no control over other factors like the global economy as a whole. The range of possible outcomes has a huge variation. We could have no Brexit and economic disaster and we could have Brexit and still get growth. What he provides are educated guesses.

Obviously he'll be cautious and can only factor in the powers he has to compensate.
Why do you think he's wrong? Do you know something he doesn't?

lvader

Herzlos wrote: »

Obviously he'll be cautious and can only factor in the powers he has to compensate.
Why do you think he's wrong? Do you know something he doesn't?

One of the purposes of trying to predict the future is so you can mitigate for it. It doesn’t make Carney wrong, it equally doesn’t mean what he is predicting will happen.

lisyloo

lvader wrote: »

One of the purposes of trying to predict the future is so you can mitigate for it. It doesn’t make Carney wrong, it equally doesn’t mean what he is predicting will happen.

He and other economists can only makes forecasts and assumptions but that’s better than doing nothing right?

Herzlos

lvader wrote: »

One of the purposes of trying to predict the future is so you can mitigate for it. It doesn’t make Carney wrong, it equally doesn’t mean what he is predicting will happen.

Correct. So why do you think you know better about the risks? He's apparently pretty unreliable, but I'd love to know why.

Conina

Herzlos wrote: »

And since you know more about economics than Carney, can you explain why he's wrong? I'd love to learn.

I don't think you would, but try this for a start.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

Conina

Herzlos wrote: »

Correct. So why do you think you know better about the risks? He's apparently pretty unreliable, but I'd love to know why.

Oh, do you want another? Then read this one too.
https://www.ft.com/content/2ec41698-f48f-11e7-a4c9-bbdefa4f210b


If it doesn't open just search for "The Bank of England’s anti-Brexit bias endangers its credibility" and open the link. It's not rocket science.

lvader

Herzlos wrote: »

Correct. So why do you think you know better about the risks? He's apparently pretty unreliable, but I'd love to know why.

I don't think I could do better, I never said I could. I also have no issues with his predictions, they are pretty much what I'd expect. I voted remain because of the short to medium term damage (5- 10 years) to the economy. However a lot of damage has already been done and is still being done by all the uncertainty. Extending article 50 doesn't stop any of that. The only way to move forward is cancelling the whole thing or leaving without a deal (save a miraculous change of heart from the EU).

Thrugelmir

StevieJ wrote: »

I think he would go for a border in the Irish sea once he has ditched his Irish backers (I think this was suggested by the EU in the first place)

DUP did not sign up to the GFA. No one wants to see the genie let out of the bottle.