Will Brexit happen?

MataNui

Struggling to see the logic in this new legislation. Seems to me like its as useful as UK parliament trying to pass a law that Americans stop eating donuts. In that leaving the EU either with or without a deal is not something we are in control of.


Lets say it passes (think it will) then what? Best guess is that all it can do is compel the PM to ask for an extension. The EU dont have to agree. In fact why the hell would they? 'Please EU, can we have some more time to spend arguing a bit more?' The EU know full well that there is no deal that anyone could magically come up with that will pass, so by granting an extension they just drag it out till Jan, then, march, then next summer, then for another 2, 3, 4 years. They know this. Why would they grant an extension?


So what then? We will have this new law saying we cant leave without a deal but the EU saying on your bike the date has come. Or have i got it wrong and suddenly our MPs can pass laws to make the EU do what we want?

lvader

MataNui wrote: »

Struggling to see the logic in this new legislation. Seems to me like its as useful as UK parliament trying to pass a law that Americans stop eating donuts. In that leaving the EU either with or without a deal is not something we are in control of.


Lets say it passes (think it will) then what? Best guess is that all it can do is compel the PM to ask for an extension. The EU dont have to agree. In fact why the hell would they? 'Please EU, can we have some more time to spend arguing a bit more?' The EU know full well that there is no deal that anyone could magically come up with that will pass, so by granting an extension they just drag it out till Jan, then, march, then next summer, then for another 2, 3, 4 years. They know this. Why would they grant an extension?


So what then? We will have this new law saying we cant leave without a deal but the EU saying on your bike the date has come. Or have i got it wrong and suddenly our MPs can pass laws to make the EU do what we want?

It's a big gamble and the MPs that vote for it will look like idiots if the extension isn't granted by any of the 27.

phillw

lvader wrote: »

It's a big gamble and the MPs that vote for it will look like idiots if the extension isn't granted by any of the 27.

Well they won't look like idiots, it only comes into play if Boris hasn't got any negotiating skill and returns without being able to come up with something.

You need to forget the lie that the EU are going to give us what we want if only we say we are going to leave. This is the equivalent of the 7 million dollars in the account that needs to be transferred, if only you would pay the 100 dollar handling fee. The longer Boris keeps that up the less chance they will bother talking to us.

What we need is someone clever who can find a way that pleases the people, the EU and parliament. He needs to be a good sales man, unfortunately he can only sell snake oil.

MataNui wrote: »

The EU know full well that there is no deal that anyone could magically come up with that will pass, so by granting an extension they just drag it out till Jan, then, march, then next summer, then for another 2, 3, 4 years. They know this. Why would they grant an extension?

Well they know we're likely to have a GE soon, or maybe even Labour will form a coalition government without having a vote and so we may have a new party that might send someone into the negotiations who doesn't have their hands handcuffed behind their back by the far right.

The conservatives don't have a majority, so I can't quite see why there couldn't be an alternative government formed after BJ loses a vote of no confidence.

duggan1

lvader wrote: »

It's a big gamble and the MPs that vote for it will look like idiots if the extension isn't granted by any of the 27.

I think if it's clear there is to be an election, or at a stretch another referendum, then they'll happily give an extension.

Another 3 months of the same? Maybe not.

Filo25

MataNui wrote: »

Struggling to see the logic in this new legislation. Seems to me like its as useful as UK parliament trying to pass a law that Americans stop eating donuts. In that leaving the EU either with or without a deal is not something we are in control of.


Lets say it passes (think it will) then what? Best guess is that all it can do is compel the PM to ask for an extension. The EU dont have to agree. In fact why the hell would they? 'Please EU, can we have some more time to spend arguing a bit more?' The EU know full well that there is no deal that anyone could magically come up with that will pass, so by granting an extension they just drag it out till Jan, then, march, then next summer, then for another 2, 3, 4 years. They know this. Why would they grant an extension?


So what then? We will have this new law saying we cant leave without a deal but the EU saying on your bike the date has come. Or have i got it wrong and suddenly our MPs can pass laws to make the EU do what we want?

The point of the legislation is to stop us leaving the EU as the default on 31st October, without the approval of Parliament, if a new government comes into power and has the voes to push through No Deal then obviously this would not stop that from happening.

lvader

duggan1 wrote: »

I think if it's clear there is to be an election, or at a stretch another referendum, then they'll happily give an extension.

Another 3 months of the same? Maybe not.

Labour will not vote for an election unless the extension is granted, EU seems to be saying no extension without election. But in any case it's not one EU approval but 27 individual countries. There are a few of them that have some beef with the EU at the moment and might decide to make things difficult.

Thrugelmir

Malthusian wrote: »

There weren't drug or fresh food shortages the last time we weren't in the EU either (other than the more limited availability of produce in the 1970s generally). There was however a 98% top rate of income tax, rubbish piling up in the streets and power blackouts under the last hard left Labour government.

Yeah the days of the 3 day week. Unions ruled at least they thought they did. Once we started losing money from our pockets Union membership collapsed. We went back to work and gave as good as we got at the hard core picket lines. The joys of waiting for a train not knowing if it was going to turn up or not to get home after work. Or arriving at Victoria midweek at 10 pm. To find both drivers and guards had walked out. Inconsiderate b*****ds.

phillw

lvader wrote: »

Labour will not vote for an election unless the extension is granted, EU seems to be saying no extension without election. But in any case it's not one EU approval but 27 individual countries. There are a few of them that have some beef with the EU at the moment and might decide to make things difficult.

I'm impressed that you accept what the EU says.

So you also accept that BJ thinking he will be successful trying to hijack them on the 17th and blackmail them into doing something they said they wouldn't do, is a pure fantasy?

Therefore what he is saying in parliament that this bill being passed is also a fantasy.

Therefore the bill must be passed.

MataNui

Filo25 wrote: »

The point of the legislation is to stop us leaving the EU as the default on 31st October, without the approval of Parliament, if a new government comes into power and has the voes to push through No Deal then obviously this would not stop that from happening.

Erm, you seem to of totally missed missed the issue. The legislation cant stop us leaving by default unless the legislation states we will be revoking article 50, since its not in the control of parliament. 'The approval of parliament" is a meaningless term because without revoking article 50 its ONLY the approval of the EU 27 that could stop us leaving on the 31st October without a deal. That was the point of my question.The legislation appears to functionally achieve nothing at all since it doesnt actually prevent no deal.

Filo25

MataNui wrote: »

Erm, you seem to of totally missed missed the issue. The legislation cant stop us leaving by default unless the legislation states we will be revoking article 50, since its not in the control of parliament. 'The approval of parliament" is a meaningless term because without revoking article 50 its ONLY the approval of the EU 27 that could stop us leaving on the 31st October without a deal. That was the point of my question.The legislation appears to functionally achieve nothing at all since it doesnt actually prevent no deal.

It can stop us lleaving by default on 31st October simply because Boris ran the clock down and denied Parliament a say, which is the number 1 concern of rebels as far as I can see.