Will Brexit happen?

phillw

MataNui wrote: »

The legislation appears to functionally achieve nothing at all since it doesnt actually prevent no deal.

The legislation prevents the ERG actively pursuing a no deal, nothing more.

They and Dominic Cummings are now the conservative party leaders. BJ is just the "friendly face" who is hoping to gain support from the gammon

There is no negotiation, they either don't understand the economic effects of no deal on the rest of the country or don't care.

scaredofdebt

The EU will likely grant any extension as we are paying them £1Bn a month for the pleasure, if you believe the figure the Brexiteers keep bandying about.

Labour need to string out any chance of a General Election until after October to maximise the damage done to Johnson.

Labour have spent a few years now moving to the left, Tories have now moved to the right under Johnson, Lib Dems now occupy the centre ground and could do very well at the next election. Labour/Lib Dem coalition possible?

MataNui

Filo25 wrote: »

It can stop us lleaving by default on 31st October simply because Boris ran the clock down and denied Parliament a say, which is the number 1 concern of rebels as far as I can see.

You are making no sense at all. 31st October is leave date whether Parliament sits for every day up to that date or not. That fact has sod all to do with BoJos seemingly deliberate effort to run down the clock. There are only 3 things that can stop us leaving on that date with no deal:
1. Revoke Article 50
2. Ask for and be granted an extension
3. Agree a deal.



The legislation doesnt allow for item 1 and cant force item 2 (unless UK MPs have now magically got power to force German, French, Spanish, Italian etc etc Premiers to do what it says). Givent they have been arguing now for almost 3 years about the 3rd option thats not going to happen.



So you have not answered the question at all and just repeated the nonsensical carp that the MPs themselves (who really dont have a clue) and the media say. How exactly in simple practical terms does this legislation stop us leaving without a deal?

MataNui

phillw wrote: »

The legislation prevents the ERG actively pursuing a no deal, nothing more.

They and Dominic Cummings are now the conservative party leaders. BJ is just the "friendly face" who is hoping to gain support from the gammon

There is no negotiation, they either don't understand the economic effects of no deal on the rest of the country or don't care.

Now thats more the sort of answer.


So. basically it does sod all. Think their time would of been better spent trying to figure out a more effective approach. They have always had the numbers.

scaredofdebt

Malthusian wrote: »

Arguably not by the standards of the time, but it would be now. Labour's centre left favours Blairite policies, the hard left favours going back to Callaghan-style policies or even further backward.

Which "Callaghan-style" policies do Labour favour exactly?

scaredofdebt

MataNui wrote: »

How exactly in simple practical terms does this legislation stop us leaving without a deal?

I've not seen the final bill as I think they're still discussing it but from what I have read they will force Johnson to agree an extension to Jan 31st if no deal has been agreed by late-October.

MataNui

scaredofdebt wrote: »

Labour have spent a few years now moving to the left, Tories have now moved to the right under Johnson, Lib Dems now occupy the centre ground and could do very well at the next election. Labour/Lib Dem coalition possible?

Hardly think Lib Dems are 'centre'. Any party that suggests taxing income then annually taxing any saved income or assets purchased with that already taxed income is pretty far to the left in my opinion. Not sure its current policy but it was a favorite of that senile old duffer Cable.


Not sure Swinson is in the slightest bit a fan of Corbyn. Not sure any coalition between them would sort brexit either (unless it led to a second referendum) which would have its own problems. Frying pan / fire

scaredofdebt

They're "center" compared to Labour and Conservatives. I can see plenty of Tory Remainers voting Lib Dem, not many would go to Labour.

Swinson will do a deal if it gets her into power, as you suggested, a deal based on another referendum might be amenable to both parties. Probably wouldn't be a long-lasting government though, but long enough for another referendum.

phillw

MataNui wrote: »

Not sure its current policy but it was a favorite of that senile old duffer Cable.

Of course you should judge a party based on imagined policies of ex leaders. That will go well.

MataNui wrote: »

So. basically it does sod all. Think their time would of been better spent trying to figure out a more effective approach. They have always had the numbers.

A more effective approach would require taking control of government entirely, I think we're a way off that.

The conservatives arguing against the bill are making their party look very xenophobic.

Conina

Herzlos wrote: »

Admitting it's a disaster, withdrawing A50 and trying to solve the root issues rather than tackle the bogeyman that is the EU

:rotfl:
Even Carney is now admitting that a no-deal Brexit won't be anywhere near as bad as he originally "forecast" so it's looking increasingly likely that your "disaster" theory is indeed just more remainer "Project Fear".