Will Brexit happen?

phillw

Conina wrote: »

:rotfl:
Even Carney is now admitting that a no-deal Brexit won't be anywhere near as bad as he originally "forecast" so it's looking increasingly likely that your "disaster" theory is indeed just more remainer "Project Fear".

He hasn't "admitted" anything. He's said that due to no deal planning the damage wouldn't be as bad now as it was in March. It's still bad, just not as bad.

The Bank of England has dialled back its worst-case Brexit scenarios, having concluded that the UK is better prepared for No Deal.

In updated advice to MPs, the BoE says that work at the ports and the government’s new tariff plans mean there would be less economic damage. It now only expects GDP to slump by around 5.5% under an damaging No Deal, with unemployment hitting 7% and inflation racing to 5.5%.

Governor Mark Carney warned that food prices would still rise in the event of a No-Deal Brexit, though, due to a slump in the pound.

And it's still avoidable if we can prevent the far right members of the conservatives dictating policy and pushing for a no deal.

Your version of the events is twisted, which you should try to work out why.

Conina

phillw wrote: »

Your version of the events is twisted, which you should try to work out why.

Stop with the insults, you're only showing your own lack of ability.

Carney has form for both exaggerating and for being wrong but feel free to continue your "tinfoil hat" theories while the rest of the country carries on with life now as it undoubtedly will in the future, regardless of Brexit.

SpiderLegs

scaredofdebt wrote: »

They're "center" compared to Labour and Conservatives. I can see plenty of Tory Remainers voting Lib Dem, not many would go to Labour.

Swinson will do a deal if it gets her into power, as you suggested, a deal based on another referendum might be amenable to both parties. Probably wouldn't be a long-lasting government though, but long enough for another referendum.

Tory remainers voting for the Lib Dem’s are just voting for a corbyn-sturgeon coalition with the Lib Dem’s trailing along in third.

Tory remainers will be reminded very clearly of this fact when the election eventually arrives.

Thrugelmir

scaredofdebt wrote: »

The EU will likely grant any extension as we are paying them £1Bn a month for the pleasure, if you believe the figure the Brexiteers keep bandying about.

£744 net of what is repaid to the UK.

Labour have spent a few years now moving to the left,

Sadly there's a generation that only experienced the brief reign of Nu Labour. Well at least a stitched up compromise between Blair and Brown that temporarily hide the divisions. Blairites will be expunged at the next GE.

Takedap

Conina wrote: »

:rotfl:
Even Carney is now admitting that a no-deal Brexit won't be anywhere near as bad as he originally "forecast" so it's looking increasingly likely that your "disaster" theory is indeed just more remainer "Project Fear".

What he said was the equivalent of a doctor telling you that instead of losing your whole leg, you're now only going to lose it from the knee down.

Conina

Takedap wrote: »

What he said was the equivalent of a doctor telling you that instead of maybe losing your whole leg, you're now at the very worst only going to lose it from the knee down.

There, that's more accurate - and since you supplied the original analogy can you be so professional as to give the percentage chance of that outcome based upon fact because using this analogy it's probable that at worst the doctor might warn you that you've got an ingrown toenail.

Takedap

Conina wrote: »

There, that's more accurate - and since you supplied the original analogy can you be so professional as to give the percentage chance of that outcome based upon fact because using this analogy it's probable that at worst the doctor might warn you that you've got an ingrown toenail.

Even if you are right & Brexit ends up being the equivalent of an ingrown toenail, it's still a million miles away from being the "sunlit uplands" that people were promised,


If fact, if you want to carry on the medical analogy, it's more like waking up after voluntary cosmetic surgery to be told that after the expensive, painful facelift, you are only a little bit uglier than you were before.

Herzlos

Conina wrote: »

There, that's more accurate - and since you supplied the original analogy can you be so professional as to give the percentage chance of that outcome based upon fact because using this analogy it's probable that at worst the doctor might warn you that you've got an ingrown toenail.

And since you know more about economics than Carney, can you explain why he's wrong? I'd love to learn.

lvader

Herzlos wrote: »

And since you know more about economics than Carney, can you explain why he's wrong? I'd love to learn.

It doesn’t take a genius to work out that it is better for someone like Carney to side on caution and he can’t take into account steps that only the Government can take to mitigate any drop in the economy. Similarly he has no control over other factors like the global economy as a whole. The range of possible outcomes has a huge variation. We could have no Brexit and economic disaster and we could have Brexit and still get growth. What he provides are educated guesses.

lisyloo

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Tory remainers voting for the Lib Dem’s are just voting for a corbyn-sturgeon coalition with the Lib Dem’s trailing along in third.

Tory remainers will be reminded very clearly of this fact when the election eventually arrives.

Some of us will now go for that.
I believe I’m in good company (soames, Clarke etc.) in voting against the tories.

Corbyn is not my choice but if that’s what it take to stop no deal then so be it.

I am clear on it and so were the Tory rebels who I’m sure thought extremely hard about it over the summer after decades of being loyal tories. We don’t need reminding of simple facts, we understand consequences.