Will Brexit happen?

lisyloo

Me too, I feel ashamed for voting Tory but won’t vote labour.
I can see a change coming.

phillw

I feel bad about voting for david cameron, but I haven't voted conservative since.

I wonder how many other life long conservative voters who have been sucked into this vile brexit obsession will regret their decision.

The extra support labour received in the last general election was a protest against brexit, which is why conservatives no longer have a majority. I'm not a labour supporter, but even they can't do as much damage to the country as the conservatives trying to hold the two halves of their party together.

We should just let the party split.

lisyloo

phillw wrote: »

I'm not a labour supporter, but even they can't do as much damage to the country as the conservatives trying to hold the two halves of their party together.

I don’t agree with you on that and everyone I know on the ground in the forces is anti Corbyn and believes he would be a disaster.
In my constituency it’s not something I have to worry about.

andrewf75

Malthusian wrote: »

It's his last chance.

Theresa May was supposed to swallow the poisoned chalice of Brexit and then, with the impossible job done and dusted, leave the next successor to enjoy being PM under more normal circumstances.

Unfortunately Theresa May spat the poisoned chalice out before she'd finished it, which means we need another sacrificial lamb. May's bailing out plus calling the 2017 election has completely screwed up Boris' timetable.

Boris did not want the job of overseeing Brexit but if he turns the job down now, he may never get it.

The Tories have won three general elections in a row. Whether or not Brexit is a smashing success, the electorate are sick of them. Even Corbyn may not be able to stop Labour winning in 2022. If Brexit is a smashing success then the floaters will elect Labour to "end austerity" and spread the largesse around a bit, and if Brexit causes a depression the floaters will elect Labour out of desperation.

If the next leader avoids another early election, it could easily be 2032 before Boris next gets a realistic shot at being PM, by which time he will have collected his State Pension. More importantly, a new generation of post-Brexit politicians will have emerged by then. Boris will be yesterday's man.

Agree, I think also that while Brexit is still a poisoned chalice, such is the situation now that whoever actually gets it done will enjoy a significant run of popularity at least with half the country. Boris can see that we're pretty much certain to leave by end-October now anyway so regardless of the implications of that, he will take the glory for it. If the country is then plunged into chaos, he'll just pretend its not his mess and will try and !!!!!!!! his way through it with inspirational nonsense about us being a great country blah blah blah. After a few years of listening to Teresa May, just being engaging to listen to might buy him some time before we realise quite what a disaster Brexit is.

Nasqueron

phillw wrote: »

I feel bad about voting for david cameron, but I haven't voted conservative since.

I wonder how many other life long conservative voters who have been sucked into this vile brexit obsession will regret their decision.

The extra support labour received in the last general election was a protest against brexit, which is why conservatives no longer have a majority. I'm not a labour supporter, but even they can't do as much damage to the country as the conservatives trying to hold the two halves of their party together.

We should just let the party split.

The Tories increased their vote in the last election as well - by 2.3m votes (turnout was a couple of % higher) though obviously Labour increased their vote tally by more (about 3.5m). Corbyn is anti-EU and voting Labour to protest Brexit in 2017 was daft given most MPs stood on a platform of accepting the vote result - Labour's official policy was accepting the vote as well, just a different end deal plan. The only real major loss of votes was from UKIP



I think the vote in 2017 was more about protesting austerity as well as Corbyn's giveaway and May's disaster of a manifesto

Nasqueron

Herzlos wrote: »

I genuinely don't know what Johnson's end game is in this, given he ran screaming from the referendum win.
I actually suspect he hasn't thought that far ahead yet, or maybe he genuinely thinks he can best the EU in negotiations that they refuse to re-open.

It could be that it's always been his role to kill off Brexit after May set the scene.

Trump didn't expect to even be Republican candidate, once he was likely to be, his ego wouldn't let him quit and even then, there is ample anecdotal evidence he was genuinely shocked to win. There are plenty of people in the US who believe he's being used as a useful idiot to draw the flack while they get on with fixing the system to help them stay in power (gerrymandering, stacking courts etc - witness the fact Senate leader Mitch McConnell has repeatedly blocked attempts to even try and block foreign interference in US elections etc). With Johnson it could well be the same, elect him to either blunder through, screw up or whatever, crash Britain out in no deal then someone else takes the reins after. At that point, even if winning in 2022 is impossible, the likes of the ERG don't care as they got what they wanted, they'll have their safe seats and/or cushy retirements. Their only fear would be a pro-EU party coming in power and applying to rejoin on a mandate from the electorate. With the 30 years of poverty (Brexit Party estimate) or even 50 years (Rees-Mogg) it's not unlikely that without some form of free trade deal being quickly agreed, we'll be back in the poor house and rejoining will seem very appealing, particularly to the young, largely pro-EU, types who were unable to vote in 2016/2017

badgerhead

lisyloo wrote: »

I don’t agree with you on that and everyone I know on the ground in the forces is anti Corbyn and believes he would be a disaster.
In my constituency it’s not something I have to worry about.

Not all of us.

melanzana

There really needs to be a UK wide debate/forum on this with representatives from all areas and communities. Give us a chance to question things full on and demand answers about the consequences of any decision made.

I think that is reasonable. But it will never happen.

Neither will No Deal either IMO. Johnson will just throw all the briefing papers in the air, ruffle his blonde locks and say to his PPS, "I say old boy/girl, this is just not cricket, it will finish us off, do give me a wording for revoking this pile of poo stat".

I suppose a bit of humour is out of the question for many now though.;)

kabayiri

How quickly things change though.

A year+ ago, and Nigel Farage was seen as irrelevant pretty much. PM May rejected offers to involve him.

Cut to now, and Farage's Brexit Party is playing the other parties like a cheap fiddle.

You wouldn't want to be a Tory or Labour MP in a marginal seat come the next GE, one which has been hit by austerity. There are plenty of those around.

melanzana

I often ponder about what would have happened if we hadn't had a referendum about leaving the EU.

UKIP is dead now anyway.

Just wondered.

Three years is a very long time in politics isn't it, and some just mention a week.