Will Brexit happen?

wintersunshine

movilogo wrote: »

Let's look back in time...

If UK does not adopt Euro, economy is doomed.
Trump can't become US president.
EU referendum would never happen.
Remain will win easily.
If Leave wins, UK will be in recession from next day.
BOE interest rate will never go down below 1%

Do you see a trend?

So explain to me how it's going to happen?


Remember This....

Brexit vote: Parliament passes bill to prevent UK crashing out of EU without deal

Labour MP Yvette Cooper’s backbench bill forces the prime minister to seek an extension to Article 50

• Chiara Giordano
• Tuesday 9 April 2019 00:12

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/parliament-passes-brexit-bill-no-deal-commons-article-50-yvette-cooper-a8860896.html

goodfella321

wintersunshine wrote: »

What does that even mean? It makes no sense.

Yeah I know - the emotive words used by the remainers is all gibberish. "Falling of a cliff edge", "being DRAGGED out of Europe", "hard/soft Brexit", "falling into the abyss", etc. etc.

Pathetic really, but they have achieved their aim of undermining democracy. You do wonder though if their victory will be worth it? History has shown what happens if people they have no other recourse than to use violence because they're being ignored and all other options have been removed. French Revolution, Russian revolution, American War of Independence and many many other forms of violent unrest like Northern Ireland, etc.

wintersunshine

The Brexit Party is only polling at 35% which is nothing - UKIP had 28% of the vote in EU elections in 2014 and got no seats in the HoC in 2015.....

wintersunshine

goodfella321 wrote: »

History has shown what happens if people they have no other recourse than to use violence because all other options have been removed.

Well, do you know I think Remainers are feeling pretty angry now too. That's what happens when you threaten people's livelihoods with spin and lies, lies and more lies.....

goodfella321

wintersunshine wrote: »

The Brexit Party is only polling at 35% which is nothing - UKIP had 28% of the vote in EU elections in 2014 and got no seats in the HoC in 2015.....

I was chatting to my Remainer friends about this very thing. I said that if the Brexit party got +35% it'd be ignored, but if the Change party polled +35% it'd be proof positive that we need a second referendum and that the national mood has changed and that the UK now love the EU. LOL.:rotfl:

Filo25

wintersunshine wrote: »

Well, do you know I think Remainers are feeling pretty angry now too. That's what happens when you threaten people's livelihoods

I think the appetite for compromise on both sides is diminishing rapidly, it seems to be heading towards a No Deal v Confirmatory Referendum, in terms of public opinion at present, which is where the Tories and Labour under current leadership are both suffering at present

wintersunshine

goodfella321 wrote: »

I was chatting to my Remainer friends about this very thing. I said that if the Brexit party got +35% it'd be ignored, but if the Change party polled +35% it'd be proof positive that we need a second referendum and that the national mood has changed and that the UK now love the EU. LOL.:rotfl:

It's not so much that it can be ignored but it can't be translated into seats under the First past the post system....Farage tried 7 times to get into the HoC and failed on all counts..

movilogo

So explain to me how it's going to happen?

Political equations change all the time.

If Brexit party wins majority in EU election, they could be disruptive to EU parliament which EU won't like.

If BoJo becomes PM he will push for No Deal. With PM being No Deal supporter, majority of cabinet will also go in favor. Mind you, Tory MPs are pro-remain because TM is pro-remain.

If Labour realizes they will lose huge voter base by seen as remain party, they will change their tune (in fact Labour is already struggling with this issue).

Both Tories and Labour manifesto pledged honouring the referendum. Suddenly their senses might be back, especially if Farage has any chance of winning seats in next GE.

EU may not like UK's whims anymore and thus they may refuse to extend article 50, which defaults to No Deal Brexit.

So my friend, wait and watch - preferably with popcorn.

wintersunshine

Filo25 wrote: »

I think the appetite for compromise on both sides is diminishing rapidly, it seems to be heading towards a No Deal v Confirmatory Referendum, in terms of public opinion at present, which is where the Tories and Labour under current leadership are both suffering at present

I agree views are polarising....

Filo25

wintersunshine wrote: »

The Brexit Party is only polling at 35% which is nothing - UKIP had 28% of the vote in EU elections in 2014 and got no seats in the HoC in 2015.....

But 1 year later those voters got a party a majority with a referendum in its manifesto, as the Tories decided to pander to the right wing of its party, UKIP and those voters.

Similarly I would be surprised if most of the Brexit party vote now didn't end up coalescing behind the Tories in the next GE.