Will Brexit happen?

scaredofdebt

There's little chance of Brexit happening with the current state of the HOC, there is no mandate for any deal.

I don't see Brexit being resolved until we either get another referendum (possible this year) or there's a General Election - if the Brexit Party do well enough then the new Conservative leader may do a deal with them which could trigger a GE this year. For example, a coalition between Cons and Brexit might be cobbled together with the agreement that no-deal Brexit is delivered and the Tories could do what they like other than that.

wintersunshine

With the deepest respect a deal between The Brexit No Deal Party and the Tories would rip the Tories in two.....

....the majority of Tory MPs are opposed to no deal....

The Lunatic fringe are a minority ...

scaredofdebt

wintersunshine wrote: »

With the deepest respect a deal between The Brexit No Deal Party and the Tories would rip the Tories in two.....

....the majority of Tory MPs are opposed to no deal....

The Lunatic fringe are a minority ...

You may well be correct but if Brexit doesn't happen, I think the Tory party would equally split.

SpiderLegs

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

Whereas the only reference to a manifesto on the Conservative party website at https://www.conservatives.com/ takes you to the manifesto for the 2017 general election, and we all know how well that went...

As things stand then, it looks like a minority party in the UK isn't going to have enough MEPs to join with any other party in th EU.

I don’t know what the Conservative party has to say because there is no point wasting time even trying to look. I might try labour in a bit but I can pretty much guess it will be a long list of every possible policy decision spoken by anyone form any party who could be bothered to have an opinion at any point in the last thirty years.

I’ve got the green manifesto at home. I printed it twenty times by accident and then threw it in the bin.

Anyway I am voting change uk as I don’t like change and Heidi is well tasty.

shaggydoo

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Anyway I am voting change uk

Well that's a waste of a vote under the system of PR that the EU operate....

SpiderLegs

shaggydoo wrote: »

Well that's a waste of a vote under the system of PR that the EU operate....

No one can tell me that a vote for Heidi is wasted.

BikingBud

:eek:

Politics Home - Labour chairman Ian Lavery blasts Shadow Cabinet colleagues for talking up 'confirmatory ballot' on Brexit

So many people so many differing views:eek:

Zero_Gravitas

I see that Aaron Bank’s concubine Farage is having his brexit company’s funding investigated:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48337499

The manfrog is denying doing anything wrong - but last week he was denying receiving £450,000 from Aaron Banks, right up to the point at which Banks himself confirmed it had happened...

Edited to add: after today’s events in Newcastle it would appear that Farage’s milkshake brings all the boys to the yard...

Takedap

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Anyway I am voting change uk as I don’t like change and Heidi is well tasty.

Just close your eyes & vote Lib Dem.


You stand more chance with Vince Cable than with Heidi (In all senses of the word)

Filo25

I would say we are still much more likely to get Brexit than not.

The Tories will get a new leader soon and pivot to become a no-deal party, it may be economically suicidal but it should be popular enough to get their support back to at least the mid 30s as they consolidate the Hard Brexit vote behind them.

Labour may well do less badly in the european elections but I think their medium term prospects are a lot worse, they are trying to sit in the middle of a debate that is increasingly polarising into No-Deal v Remain, they aren't likely ot be changing their Eurosceptic leadership anytime soon so I don't see that changing. A lot of the Remain support they are bleeding to LibDems, Greens SNP, is going to be difficult to get back in those circumstances.

People can talk about northern voting seats being Leave voting all they like but Labour members and voters are heavily Remain supporting and ignoring that is starting to cause Labour some major issues that won't go away.

So I could easily see new Tory leadership calling an election and winning it in spite of managing a lower vote percentage than they did in 2017, it is always a gamble though as May found out in 2017, although I doubt the next leader can be remotely as bad in a campaign as May was.