Will Brexit happen?

goodfella321

michaels wrote: »

It will happen....in that we will no longer be members of the EU.

It won't happen in that we will still be a vassal state following the edicts of our betters in Brussels.

Worst solution for UK, best for Euro federalists.

I agree, but it won't be forever. Once we are out of the EU we will lose all of the rebates and other deals we had, so I can't see a majority for returning into the EU especially if we also have the spectre of joining schengen and the euro. The remainer camp know this and that's why they are desperate to cancel Brexit.

After a few years of being half-way in, the UK will get sick of being told what to do and so we will have another in/out referendum. For reasons given above I don;t see us rejoining so we will eventually leave. However, we will have had time to adjust so there won't be all the talks of 'falling off a cliff'.

wintersunshine

Filo25 wrote: »

We will see, I can see the Tories splintering a bit and losing a few of their moderate MPs, but realistically I think most will stay on board and jump on the No Deal express (or at least sound like they are) after the hammering they will get in the European elections.

The members were always on the outer fringes of Euro scepticism, but given the recent influx of former UKIP member that is even more pronounced than ever, I don't see how the Tories can avoid going down the Hard Brexit path at this stage.

No way.

They don't even have a majority in the HoC - they have lost 10 DUP MPs and 3 to the Tiggers...they actually have the ability to do sweet FA...let alone a No Deal Brexit....


That's why there was no Queen's Speech....there is actually nothing going on in the HoC - Mary Creagh described it as the Marie Celeste...

wintersunshine

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Revoking is suicide for the whole political system, they will avoid that at any cost IMO. No Deal allows MP`s who get on board now to maybe save their seats, that is the route all but the most principled/deluded will take IMO. If the Brexit party do a deal with the Tories there is easily enough votes there to get us out on No Deal?

Revoke is becoming most likely. Change UK are already there - the argument goes - we have run out of time to run another referendum we must revoke....


.....the revoke seed has been sown it will germinate...

Filo25

wintersunshine wrote: »

No way.

They don't even have a majority in the HoC - they have lost 10 DUP MPs and 3 to the Tiggers...they actually have the ability to do sweet FA...let alone a No Deal Brexit....

Two options here, one is just run down the clock, put nothing further on the table to the EU, can Parliament force them to ask for another extension? I honestly dont know, equally they may be able to frustrate the EU so much that they pull the plug and are no longer willing to grant another extension.

The easier option is to get a new leader and go to the country in the honeymoon period, Labour are all over the place on Brexit at the moment and are bleeding Remainer votes, I'm not sure that will change as long as their current leadership is in place.

There isn't a majority for a No Deal Brexit in the electorate, but that doesn't mean you can't win an election going for that option under FPTP.

Equally I agree there clearly isn't a majority for a No Deal Brexit in Parliament at present, but there isn't a majority in Parliament for any Brexit or Remaining option so the problem remains that eventually when time runs out and nothing else is agreed "No Deal" becomes the default.

wintersunshine

Crashy_Time wrote: »

If the Brexit party do a deal with the Tories there is easily enough votes there to get us out on No Deal?

That will split the Tory party in two. Most Tory Mps are not on the lunatic fringe...

wintersunshine

goodfella321 wrote: »

However, we will have had time to adjust so there won't be all the talks of 'falling off a cliff'.

What does that even mean? It makes no sense.

wintersunshine

Filo25 wrote: »

Two options here, one is just run down the clock, put nothing further on the table to the EU, can Parliament force them to ask for another extension? I honestly dont know,

Parliament can pass legislation and make no deal illegal - as they have done once already.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/apr/08/brexit-latest-news-live-theresa-may-union-most-likely-outcome-if-labour-and-government-can-compromise-says-minister-live-news?page=with%3Ablock-5cabb3438f08bc7376ae95c9


If Boris won't go and get an extension - I'm sure the HoC can nominate somebody who would. By then we would have a full blown constitutional crisis....


But Labour can bring a vote of no confidence - it would just take a handful of conservatives to bring the government down...Ken Clarke, Dominic grieve, etc....


Nobody is going to win a GE on a no deal ticket.....

wintersunshine

Filo25 wrote: »

There isn't a majority for a No Deal Brexit in the electorate, but that doesn't mean you can't win an election going for that option under FPTP.

Remainers can just vote tactically and take out either the Tories or the Brexit Party - whose vote will be spit anyways - it won't be hard.


There is no way a party is going to win a GE on a No Deal Ticket....


Brexiteers should have backed The Withdrawal Bill if they really wanted Brexit to happen (Fools).

movilogo

A No Deal is not going to happen.

Let's look back in time...

If UK does not adopt Euro, economy is doomed.
Trump can't become US president.
EU referendum would never happen.
Remain will win easily.
If Leave wins, UK will be in recession from next day.
BOE interest rate will never go down below 1%

Do you see a trend?

wintersunshine

Brexit vote: Parliament passes bill to prevent UK crashing out of EU without deal

Labour MP Yvette Cooper’s backbench bill forces the prime minister to seek an extension to Article 50

• Chiara Giordano
• Tuesday 9 April 2019 00:12

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/parliament-passes-brexit-bill-no-deal-commons-article-50-yvette-cooper-a8860896.html