Will Brexit happen?

wintersunshine

Takedap wrote: »

It doesn't matter how many laws we've passed. If we can't reach an agreement & the EU decides to push us into a decision, the only way to leave is with no deal.


The option for the UK Gov is then revoke or leave.

And the current HoC will revoke. They will not do no deal.


(But there is absolutely no evidence to suggest that the EU wouldn't extend article 50 again ....) But, by the then parliament might have already decided to Revoke...

ukcarper

Filo25 wrote: »

Any polling I have seen showed that at the time of the referendum, most Labour voters were Remainers, most Tories Leavers, those trends have only increased since then, as voters have moved between parties, people are becoming more strongly defined by their views on Brexit than they are traditional party loyalty.

The massive problem for the Tories is that there aren't the votes for Theresa May's deal with the general public anymore, Thursday is likely to show that Leavers aren't going to back the Tories if they are offering a negotiated (relatively hard) Brexit, when some populists come along and pormise No Deal, electorally I don't see that the Tories have any choice but to go to the extremes on Brexit.

Labours problem is the distribution of its leave voters, two thirds of Labour supporters voted remain but majority of Labour MPs represent leave supporting constituencies.

wintersunshine

ukcarper wrote: »

Labours problem is the distribution of its leave voters, two thirds of Labour supporters voted remain but majority of Labour MPs represent leave supporting constituencies.

And two thirds of its voters voted Remain.


So,
1)two thirds of its voters voted Remain.
2)two thirds of its membership voted Remain
But
3) two thirds of its seats are Leave

ukcarper

wintersunshine wrote: »

And two thirds of its voters voted Remain.


So,
1)two thirds of its voters voted Remain.
2)two thirds of its membership voted Remain
But
3) two thirds of its seats are Leave

Correct. .

wintersunshine

ukcarper wrote: »

Correct. .

Ha ha - nightmare

Filo25

wintersunshine wrote: »

And the current HoC will revoke. They will not do no deal.


(But there is absolutely no evidence to suggest that the EU wouldn't extend article 50 again ....) But, by the then parliament might have already decided to Revoke...

The fundamental issue remains though that there isn't a majority for anything in this Parliament.

There is a majority for Brexit, just not for any particular form of Brexit.

ukcarper

wintersunshine wrote: »

Ha ha - nightmare

Its easy to see why they are reluctant to do what it members want and come out fully in favour of second referendum.

Filo25

ukcarper wrote: »

Its easy to see why they are reluctant to do what it members want and come out fully in favour of second referendum.

The problem for this is it also seems to be what most of their voters want as well, Labour voters were estimates to be about 75% Remain I think by the 2017 referendum, even in those seats where most of the voters are Leavers most Labour voters are likely to be Remainers.

wintersunshine

I know nobody is listening to her but

Theresa May has told MPs they have "one last chance" to deliver Brexit, as she set out a "new Brexit deal".
MPs will get a vote on whether to hold another referendum if they back the EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill, she said.
The bill also contains new guarantees on workers' rights, environmental protections and the Irish backstop as well a customs "compromise".
If MPs reject the bill, she warned them a negotiated exit would be "dead in the water" and Brexit could be stopped

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48357017

ukcarper

Filo25 wrote: »

The problem for this is it also seems to be what most of their voters want as well, Labour voters were estimates to be about 75% Remain I think by the 2017 referendum, even in those seats where most of the voters are Leavers most Labour voters are likely to be Remainers.

Not sure how they got that figure but it was 65% in Referendum. But as I said they are not evenly and in many constituencies they can't afford to lose those votes. Saying that I can't see any of major parties being in a hurry to call a general election.