Will Brexit happen?

wintersunshine

This bit's interesting

MPs will get a vote on whether to hold another referendum if they back the EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill, she said.

I'm not sure that matters - can't they just add ammendment to the WA Bill that calls for a second referendum....

ukcarper

wintersunshine wrote: »

This bit's interesting



I'm not sure that matters - can't they just add ammendment to the WA Bill that calls for a second referendum....

Second referendum has been defeated once in commons, that could easily happen again.

Filo25

ukcarper wrote: »

Not sure how they got that figure but it was 65% in Referendum. But as I said they are not evenly and in many constituencies they can't afford to lose those votes. Saying that I can't see any of major parties being in a hurry to call a general election.

Polling based looking at voter moves, basically in the 2017 election Remainers migrated towards the Labour party and Leavers towards the Tories, not a particularly surprising observation based on voting trends in that GE

ukcarper

Filo25 wrote: »

Polling based looking at voter moves, basically in the 2017 election Remainers migrated towards the Labour party and Leavers towards the Tories, not a particularly surprising observation based on voting trends in that GE

Why do you think Labour isn't prepared to get off fence then?

Filo25

ukcarper wrote: »

Why do you think Labour isn't prepared to get off fence then?

Corbyn's a lifelong Brexiteer amd there are a fair few Lexiteers (socialism in one country!) in his inner circle.

I fully agree it isn't easy for them as it will probably hurt them somewhat in some seats, but I think that's going to happen anyway in a debate which seems to be polarising into No Deal v Ref/Remain in the public's mind. Where they are positioned now probalby isn't pleasing either of those 2 groups of voters a great deal. The same problem the Tories have at present

ukcarper

Filo25 wrote: »

Corbyn's a lifelong Brexiteer amd there are a fair few Lexiteers (socialism in one country!) in his inner circle.

I fully agree it isn't easy for them as it will probably hurt them somewhat in some seats, but I think that's going to happen anyway in a debate which seems to be polarising into No Deal v Ref/Remain in the public's mind. Where they are positioned now probalby isn't pleasing either of those 2 groups of voters a great deal. The same problem the Tories have at present

I agree they will have to get off fence sometime as they are losing voters and will probably come out for second referendum.

Filo25

ukcarper wrote: »

I agree they will have to get off fence sometime as they are losing voters and will probably come out for second referendum.

I think that will probably their only hoice as they won't be able to out-Brexit the Tories when they move to a leader who will at least publicly be talking up "No Deal", so then their issue becomes more to stop the likes of the LibDems starting to pillage their Remain voters.

I think the next year will definitely be "interesting times" for politics in this country!

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

I think that will probably their only hoice as they won't be able to out-Brexit the Tories when they move to a leader who will at least publicly be talking up "No Deal", so then their issue becomes more to stop the likes of the LibDems starting to pillage their Remain voters.

I think the next year will definitely be "interesting times" for politics in this country!

Does anybody know what the Change UK actually stand for. Seems as if a number of MP's from the major parties have simply walked into the political wilderness. Neither did they receive the mass defections they were expecting.

qwert_yuiop

wintersunshine wrote: »

And two thirds of its voters voted Remain.


So,
1)two thirds of its voters voted Remain.
2)two thirds of its membership voted Remain
But
3) two thirds of its seats are Leave

The Labour leavers were concentrated in Labour constituencies. Yea, seems hard to believe, but does appear to be true.

qwert_yuiop

Filo25 wrote: »

I think that will probably their only hoice as they won't be able to out-Brexit the Tories when they move to a leader who will at least publicly be talking up "No Deal", so then their issue becomes more to stop the likes of the LibDems starting to pillage their Remain voters.

I think the next year will definitely be "interesting times" for politics in this country!

I don’t think we’ll have brexit in 2019. I also think if we don’t have it soon, maybe by this time next year, it’ll be off for the foreseeable.

Turkey applied to join in 1979. We’ll be a sort of anti-turkey, never actually leaving.