Will Brexit happen?

movilogo

wintersunshine wrote: »

The Brexit Party is only polling at 35% which is nothing - UKIP had 28% of the vote in EU elections in 2014 and got no seats in the HoC in 2015.....

HoC = FPTP system

EU election = PR system

Both Labour and Conservatives have 50-50 voter split on Brexit. That is a big differentiating factor. There has never been such strong polarization in history.

Filo25

movilogo wrote: »

Political equations change all the time.

If Brexit party wins majority in EU election, they could be disruptive to EU parliament which EU won't like.

If BoJo becomes PM he will push for No Deal. With PM being No Deal supporter, majority of cabinet will also go in favor. Mind you, Tory MPs are pro-remain because TM is pro-remain.

If Labour realizes they will lose huge voter base by seen as remain party, they will change their tune (in fact Labour is already struggling with this issue).

Both Tories and Labour manifesto pledged honouring the referendum. Suddenly their senses might be back, especially if Farage has any chance of winning seats in next GE.

EU may not like UK's whims anymore and thus they may refuse to extend article 50, which defaults to No Deal Brexit.

So my friend, wait and watch - preferably with popcorn.

Labour's big problem at present (given the make up of its voters) isn't that Leavers see it as a Remain party, its that many Remainers are starting to see it as a Brexit party, hence the increase in support for Lib Dems, Greens etc.

Most projections for the EU elections have the Tories + Brexit party winning a similar number of seats to UKIP plus Tories in 2014, so probably not a huge change there.

wintersunshine

movilogo wrote: »

If BoJo becomes PM he will push for No Deal.

So what? It doesn't change the parliamentary maths. He will still be leading a minority government. Therefore, he will be looking at a GE and the figures won't be looking good either....

Filo25

movilogo wrote: »

HoC = FPTP system

EU election = PR system

Both Labour and Conservatives have 50-50 voter split on Brexit. That is a big differentiating factor. There has never been such strong polarization in history.

Any polling I have seen showed that at the time of the referendum, most Labour voters were Remainers, most Tories Leavers, those trends have only increased since then, as voters have moved between parties, people are becoming more strongly defined by their views on Brexit than they are traditional party loyalty.

The massive problem for the Tories is that there aren't the votes for Theresa May's deal with the general public anymore, Thursday is likely to show that Leavers aren't going to back the Tories if they are offering a negotiated (relatively hard) Brexit, when some populists come along and pormise No Deal, electorally I don't see that the Tories have any choice but to go to the extremes on Brexit.

wintersunshine

movilogo wrote: »

If Labour realizes they will lose huge voter base by seen as remain party, they will change their tune (in fact Labour is already struggling with this issue).

Presently, Labour are losing more Remain voters than Leave voters....though they are losing both. 2/3 of Labour voters are Remain voters.

wintersunshine

movilogo wrote: »

EU may not like UK's whims anymore and thus they may refuse to extend article 50, which defaults to No Deal Brexit.

The HoC votes to revoke Article 50.

wintersunshine

Filo25 wrote: »

Similarly I would be surprised if most of the Brexit party vote now didn't end up coalescing behind the Tories in the next GE.

And Remainers can vote tactically for the best Remain Party and the best the Tories could hope for is another hung parliament....which won't allow a no deal.....

goodfella321

Filo25 wrote: »

Any polling I have seen showed that at the time of the referendum, most Labour voters were Remainers, most Tories Leavers, those trends have only increased since then, as voters have moved between parties, people are becoming more strongly defined by their views on Brexit than they are traditional party loyalty.

Most polls had remain winning with a landslide. The polls were also wildly incorrect when trying to call the various general election results. I really have zero confidence in polls. Interestingly, my daughter who was 19 at the time of the referendum decided to vote Leave. Every time she was accosted by a pollster she said she voted remain because the people doing the polling where predominantly young people and so she didn't want 'hassle' from them by admitting she voted leave. I suspect many people are like that. Who needs the hassle of a earnest, shiny faced twenty something telling you how wrong you were when you voted and how you were lied to (yet somehow they managed to see through the lies, because only remainers push that trope).

Filo25

goodfella321 wrote: »

Most polls had remain winning with a landslide. The polls were also wildly incorrect when trying to call the various general election results. I really have zero confidence in polls. Interestingly, my daughter who was 19 at the time of the referendum decided to vote Leave. Every time she was accosted by a pollster she said she voted remain because the people doing the polling where predominantly young people and so she didn't want 'hassle' from them by admitting she voted leave. I suspect many people are like that. Who needs the hassle of a earnest, shiny faced twenty something telling you how wrong you were when you voted and how you were lied to (yet somehow they managed to see through the lies, because only remainers push that trope).

Most polls had it neck and neck from that I saw, polling for a first run referendum is notoriously difficult as you can't track changing views.

The bookies were the ones who thought Remain had it in the bag for reasons best known to themselves, still it made me a few quid, as did Trump's victory (not that I liked either outcome)

Takedap

wintersunshine wrote: »

So explain to me how it's going to happen?


Remember This....





https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/parliament-passes-brexit-bill-no-deal-commons-article-50-yvette-cooper-a8860896.html

It doesn't matter how many laws we've passed. If we can't reach an agreement & the EU decides to push us into a decision, the only way to leave is with no deal.


The option for the UK Gov is then revoke or leave.