Will Brexit happen?

wintersunshine

Filo25 wrote: »

The Tories will get a new leader soon and pivot to become a no-deal party, it may be economically suicidal but it should be popular enough to get their support back to at least the mid 30s as they consolidate the Hard Brexit vote behind them.

That would spit the party in two. Just look at what Hammond said this morning.

in a speech to the CBI later, Chancellor Philip Hammond is to warn prospective Conservative leadership contenders against "hijacking" Brexit by "knowingly inflicting" a damaging no-deal exit on the economy

Mr Hammond will tell business leaders that there is "no mandate" for such a no-deal exit and that even with "all the preparation in the world" it would be highly damaging.
"To advocate for no deal is to hijack the result of the referendum and in doing so knowingly to inflict damage on our economy and our living standards," he will say.

wintersunshine

Filo25 wrote: »

So I could easily see new Tory leadership calling an election and winning it in spite of managing a lower vote percentage than they did in 2017, it is always a gamble though as May found out in 2017, although I doubt the next leader can be remotely as bad in a campaign as May was.

Can't see that....

SpiderLegs

wintersunshine wrote: »

That would spit the party in two. Just look at what Hammond said this morning.

I doubt any of those leadership candidates will be paying too much attention to mr dead man walking Hammond.

movilogo

Politicians are only interested in saving their own backsides. They don't care for either democracy of economy.

If they see their party is going down under, they will change their tune in support of No Deal or revoking article 50 - depending on what will serve THEM best at that point in time.

At present majority of parliament still in favour of some deal but it can soon cross the tipping point for overwhelming support in favour of no deal.

wintersunshine

SpiderLegs wrote: »

I doubt any of those leadership candidates will be paying too much attention to mr dead man walking Hammond.

He's not the only one though is he? There is a reason most Tory MPs refer to certain MPs as the lunatic wing.....

wintersunshine

movilogo wrote: »

Politicians are only interested in saving their own backsides. They don't care for either democracy of economy.

I have reached the conclusion that many of the leadership candidates don't really believe in Brexit - I include Boris, Gove and Raab in that...they just see it as the way to become leader...

wintersunshine

movilogo wrote: »

At present majority of parliament still in favour of some deal but it can soon cross the tipping point for overwhelming support in favour of no deal.

No chance.


They will revoke before they accept a NO Deal.


A No Deal is not going to happen.

Filo25

We will see, I can see the Tories splintering a bit and losing a few of their moderate MPs, but realistically I think most will stay on board and jump on the No Deal express (or at least sound like they are) after the hammering they will get in the European elections.

The members were always on the outer fringes of Euro scepticism, but given the recent influx of former UKIP member that is even more pronounced than ever, I don't see how the Tories can avoid going down the Hard Brexit path at this stage.

Crashy_Time

SpiderLegs wrote: »

I doubt any of those leadership candidates will be paying too much attention to mr dead man walking Hammond.

No, they are all paying attention to the main man, Farage. He is pulling most of the strings now, the Liberal Democrats (when we win) just got lucky as there was no other viable protest/remain option. The best hope now is to just vote Brexit Party and embrace No Deal with hopefully better/more motivated negotiators at the table for the proper sit down with the EU. What has been going on is the children fighting over ice-cream while the babysitter (EU) sat in the corner making threats that don`t have any basis in reality at all. Adults need to clear the room and get back round the table IMO, things are not going back the way they were. Oh and sack the babysitter as well.

Crashy_Time

wintersunshine wrote: »

No chance.


They will revoke before they accept a NO Deal.


A No Deal is not going to happen.

Revoking is suicide for the whole political system, they will avoid that at any cost IMO. No Deal allows MP`s who get on board now to maybe save their seats, that is the route all but the most principled/deluded will take IMO. If the Brexit party do a deal with the Tories there is easily enough votes there to get us out on No Deal?