Will Brexit happen?

Thrugelmir

phillw said:

Thrugelmir said:
Firstly Scotland has to agree divorce terms with the UK. Then can rejoin the EU. That's going to be a considerable number of years. Adopting the Euro is likewise going to be a major challenge. 

What UK law prohibits Scotland from leaving the United Kingdom and joining the EU before finalizing financial liabilities?
Scotland only has to commit to adopting the Euro before joining & the EU27 might decide to let them off that (especially if Boris goes WTO).
Can you provide some legislation that would indicate Scotland would be unable to switch Union's at midnight on a specific date, within a short time of a referendum? (or Northern Ireland for that matter)

I didn't mention financial in isolation as plenty of factors that need thrashing through. Border with England is an issue that the EU will want resolved for example. 

I didn't say when Scotland would join the Eurozone just that implementation would be a major project. When it comes to the EU "letting off" Scotland. That's something that's just pie in the sky thinking. Simply not going to happen. 

Scotland unilaterally can do whatever it wants to. However will have to accept the consequences of the action. In broads terms would be  a foolish move by the Government of the day. 

Herzlos

Ruprecht said:

phillw said:

Thrugelmir said:
Firstly Scotland has to agree divorce terms with the UK. Then can rejoin the EU. That's going to be a considerable number of years. Adopting the Euro is likewise going to be a major challenge. 

What UK law prohibits Scotland from leaving the United Kingdom and joining the EU before finalizing financial liabilities?
Scotland only has to commit to adopting the Euro before joining & the EU27 might decide to let them off that (especially if Boris goes WTO).
Can you provide some legislation that would indicate Scotland would be unable to switch Union's at midnight on a specific date, within a short time of a referendum? (or Northern Ireland for that matter)

The EU that can not possibly negotiate a trade deal with a country already aligned within a year yet you think that a new country will be accepted as a new member by the EU quickly even though it has to meet their membership criteria is being more than a little bit hopeful, it would take years if all went well. The EU won't let members join if they have not settled agreements with neighbours either or don't you bother checking things.

The reason a deal with England is taking so long is because wants to diverge but keep all the benefits of equivalence. 

Una_Voidable

Herzlos said:

Ruprecht said:

phillw said:

Thrugelmir said:
Firstly Scotland has to agree divorce terms with the UK. Then can rejoin the EU. That's going to be a considerable number of years. Adopting the Euro is likewise going to be a major challenge. 

What UK law prohibits Scotland from leaving the United Kingdom and joining the EU before finalizing financial liabilities?
Scotland only has to commit to adopting the Euro before joining & the EU27 might decide to let them off that (especially if Boris goes WTO).
Can you provide some legislation that would indicate Scotland would be unable to switch Union's at midnight on a specific date, within a short time of a referendum? (or Northern Ireland for that matter)

The EU that can not possibly negotiate a trade deal with a country already aligned within a year yet you think that a new country will be accepted as a new member by the EU quickly even though it has to meet their membership criteria is being more than a little bit hopeful, it would take years if all went well. The EU won't let members join if they have not settled agreements with neighbours either or don't you bother checking things.

The reason a deal with England is taking so long is because wants to diverge but keep all the benefits of equivalence. 

That's not true.
The real reason is because the EU want to keep the UK tied as much as they can - and that will be their downfall as far as any deal is concerned. The EU need the UK tied-in as far as possible because they're "experiencing difficulties" what with budget arguments; slow growth in their remaining major contributors; declining share of global trade; and more.
Meantime despite continuing EU-biased scare stories the UK is already planning for a future with less EU input, in areas of the world which are growing far faster than the EU and whose markets are far more welcoming without having unwanted restrictions and ties.
Look for UK and the CPTPP and see how talks are progressing apace.

_mayonnaise_

It's me, the old mayonnaise.

Lost my old login as I didn't have access to old email anymore.

Hope all is well, Happy Valentine's Day!

fatbeetle

Why do the EU need the UK cash cow?

[quote]FRANKFURT, Germany -- Growth ground to a halt at the end of the year in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, as manufacturing remained in a slump and exports fell. The flat reading underlines the challenge facing the broader eurozone economy as it struggles against headwinds from the U.S-China trade dispute and Britain's departure from the European Union. The state statistics agency said Friday there was zero growth in the fourth quarter and a mediocre 0.6% increase for the whole year. The figures did not change the disappointing reading for the entire eurozone of 0.1% growth during the fourth quarter.[/quote]

[quote]The French economy unexpectedly shrank in the final quarter of last year as manufacturing output slumped in the face of strikes over an unpopular pension reform, putting more pressure on President Emmanuel Macron.[/quote]


[quote] Italy’s economy unexpected posted a steep contraction in the fourth quarter of last year due to weak domestic demand, data showed on Friday, hitting the outlook for 2020. Gross domestic product in the euro zone’s third largest economy fell a quarterly 0.3% between October and December, following an unrevised 0.1% rise in the third quarter, national statistics bureau ISTAT reported. [/quote]

_mayonnaise_

fatbeetle said:

Why do the EU need the UK cash cow?

[quote]The figures did not change the disappointing reading for the entire eurozone of 0.1% growth during the fourth quarter.[/quote]

Very disappointing, especially compared to the UK in full Boris bounce and posting 0.0% growth.

Thrugelmir

fatbeetle said:

[quote]The French economy unexpectedly shrank in the final quarter of last year as manufacturing output slumped in the face of strikes over an unpopular pension reform, putting more pressure on President Emmanuel Macron.[/quote]


[quote] Italy’s economy unexpected posted a steep contraction in the fourth quarter of last year due to weak domestic demand, data showed on Friday, hitting the outlook for 2020. Gross domestic product in the euro zone’s third largest economy fell a quarterly 0.3% between October and December, following an unrevised 0.1% rise in the third quarter, national statistics bureau ISTAT reported. [/quote]

French manufacturing is highly dependent upon demand from Germany. Particularly from the motor sector which accounts for around 35% of French manufacturing output. 

Thrugelmir

_mayonnaise_ said:

fatbeetle said:

Why do the EU need the UK cash cow?

[quote]The figures did not change the disappointing reading for the entire eurozone of 0.1% growth during the fourth quarter.[/quote]

Very disappointing, especially compared to the UK in full Boris bounce and posting 0.0% growth.

ECB are continuing to print money with little impact..........

John_Doe

Thrugelmir said:

_mayonnaise_ said:

fatbeetle said:

Why do the EU need the UK cash cow?

[quote]The figures did not change the disappointing reading for the entire eurozone of 0.1% growth during the fourth quarter.[/quote]

Very disappointing, especially compared to the UK in full Boris bounce and posting 0.0% growth.

ECB are continuing to print money with little impact..........

Yes, Eurozone 2019 growth 1.2% vs UK 2019 growth 1.4% & the Eurozone haven't been squabbling among themselves trying to get out of the EU. The difference isn't much right enough but given the EU's dire forecasts there's no wonder they are worried that the UK is going to do better than them.
The "Boris bounce" couldn't happen before Boris BTW so look to the future for that, though signs for the near future so far look quite promising. Much more promising than those of Germany, France and Italy.

fatbeetle

The UK’s withdrawal from the European Union has left a huge €75bn (£62bn) hole in the bloc’s budget for the next seven years, 2021 to 2027. “And now we are fighting like ferrets in a sack,” said one EU diplomat with a sigh.

......

The debate is all the more toxic as the commission has proposed that cohesion funds should also, in the future, be conditional on member states respecting the rule of law. It is a red rag to the bulls in the nationalist governments of Hungary and Poland, who are already in a battle with Brussels over their judicial reforms, among other issues.

......

Going in to the summit, the European council’s president, Charles Michel, a former prime minister of Belgium, has been engaged in furious shuttle diplomacy around the capitals.

Michel has put forward an alternative proposal for the budget to be 1.074% of the bloc’s gross national income (€1.094tn) in an attempt to split the difference between the warring camps.

“In this negotiation, we are not expecting member states to be happy, but the degree of dissatisfaction will be key,” said a senior EU official. “No chance,” responded a Frugal diplomat. “There is not a lot to say, except we won’t pay. And as the Rolling Stones song goes, ‘Time is on my side’.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/16/stressed-heads-to-start-brussels-budget-talks-post-brexit