Will Brexit happen?

Green_Bear

phillw wrote: »

Probably means short on sterling, short on products the government are planning to import at 0% from every WTO country, which will also decimate UK businesses & shorts on businesses themselves

It could be that they are making sane investments based on the information they have, but if Boris feels indebted to them and they make money from a certain outcome. If we see that outcome, then there will be questions that need to be asked.

Farage received a lot of financial benefit for his part in this already, but he wasn't a minister.

Ministers aren't even allowed to have a perceived conflict of interest. There is an argument he should disqualify himself because of the situation.

Ha, if that was ever true!
The only reason they become politicians is to benefit from insider information.
I know - I used to work in the mining sector, which employed 'political analysts'.

For an example of what goes on:
Goldman Sachs paid Hilary Clinton about $230k just to give a speech.
They wouldn't even know whether she was telling the truth or not !
Same for people like Blair.

When you see that amount of money being wasted on such nonsense, you can realise how easy it is to pay a few contacts for genuine info.

Green_Bear

Herzlos wrote: »

No deal doesn't happen for you to make a fortune shorting Sterling. You just buy back in before the real deal is announced and voila!


You're assuming the people placing these billions in short positions don't have any insider knowledge, because that'd be illegal.

I'm not sure I follow you.
If I was short sterling, I'd be covering my position now, because as it gets closer to the extension being granted, sterling is going to rise.

Sailtheworld

lisyloo wrote: »

Many of us here have globally diversified pensions, although I’d be the first to point out that just about managing families won’t have globally diversified assets, so once again the worst off in society will be the biggest losers.

Have you looked at how diversified you really are?

It's an eye-opener. Even with a diversified pension fund once you take into account housing equity and other savings non-sterling assets will be a relatively small part of your net worth. Then c100% of earnings are in sterling on top.

I thought I was reasonably well off until I realised just how rich I'd need to be to meaningfully diversify.

lisyloo

Sailtheworld wrote: »

Have you looked at how diversified you really are?

It's an eye-opener. Even with a diversified pension fund once you take into account housing equity and other savings non-sterling assets will be a relatively small part of your net worth. Then c100% of earnings are in sterling on top.

I thought I was reasonably well off until I realised just how rich I'd need to be to meaningfully diversify.

I check every day (probably shouldn’t).

Yes it’s a worry but not one I can control so I just do my best to sensibly diversify as best I can.

We are extremely privileged being born in the uk (all of us) and I don’t think we should forget that.

My holiday money in Bali was about 20% more expensive than last year but I’m more concerned about medicines, animals being slaughtered etc.
I read well need to slaughter a lot of animals but might not have the EU workers in the abattoirs available.

Green_Bear

Sailtheworld wrote: »

Have you looked at how diversified you really are?

It's an eye-opener. Even with a diversified pension fund once you take into account housing equity and other savings non-sterling assets will be a relatively small part of your net worth. Then c100% of earnings are in sterling on top.

I thought I was reasonably well off until I realised just how rich I'd need to be to meaningfully diversify.

Exactly.
JRM and co are often paid in shares, rather than GBP.

Thrugelmir

lisyloo wrote: »

Many of us here have globally diversified pensions,

Fine as long as the Chinese continue to support the US Dollar by funding the USA's budget deficits. US Dollar strength is outside the control of the Fed. A return to $2 to a £1 would see paper gains evaporate overnight.

Green_Bear

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Fine as long as the Chinese continue to support the US Dollar by funding the USA's budget deficits. US Dollar strength is outside the control of the Fed. A return to $2 to a £1 would see paper gains evaporate overnight.

Maybe. But in that situation your GBP wages would be worth more.
A diversified portfolio should also hold gold - for the very reason you describe,

Thrugelmir

Green_Bear wrote: »

Maybe. But in that situation your GBP wages would be worth more.

Only in terms of goods, commodities and services priced and traded in $. Chinese Yuan is destined to become worlds major currency at some point. Then other countries may not peg to US $ either.

lisyloo

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Fine as long as the Chinese continue to support the US Dollar by funding the USA's budget deficits. US Dollar strength is outside the control of the Fed. A return to $2 to a £1 would see paper gains evaporate overnight.

Bad new for people who want their money overnight, that’s not what a pension is for though.

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Fine as long as the Chinese continue to support the US Dollar by funding the USA's budget deficits. US Dollar strength is outside the control of the Fed. A return to $2 to a £1 would see paper gains evaporate overnight.

If you know we're going to see £1/ $2 (and when) you don't need to worry about diversification.

For the dunces that aren't blessed with a crystal ball the point of diversification is that you don't bet the farm either way and don't need to overly worry about a 66% appreciation of sterling against the dollar (if only). Diversification is the only free lunch out there.