Will Brexit happen?

Green_Bear

If the UK had never joined the EU, I expect life would be much the same for most people here as it is today.

It's not so much being in the EU or out of the EU that's the problem - it's the change and uncertainty that's the problem.

Remaining is the best option, because we are already in.
The population, family ties and business arrangements in the UK have developed around EU membership.

elstimpo

"It can be revealed that currently £4.6 billion of aggregate short positons on a 'no deal' Brexit have been taken out by hedge funds that directly or indirectly bankrolled Boris Johnson's ledership campaign"

Most of these firms also donated to Vote Leave and took out short positions on the EU referendum result. Another £3.7 billion of these short positions have been taken out by firms that donated to the Vote Leave campaign, but didnt donate directly to the Johnson leadership campaign"

'Currently £8.3 billion og aggregate short positions have been taken out by hedge funds connected to the prime minister and his vote leave campaign, run by his advisor Dominic Cummings. on a 'no deal' Brexit"

Green_Bear

elstimpo wrote: »

"It can be revealed that currently £4.6 billion of aggregate short positons on a 'no deal' Brexit have been taken out by hedge funds that directly or indirectly bankrolled Boris Johnson's ledership campaign"

Most of these firms also donated to Vote Leave and took out short positions on the EU referendum result. Another £3.7 billion of these short positions have been taken out by firms that donated to the Vote Leave campaign, but didnt donate directly to the Johnson leadership campaign"

'Currently £8.3 billion og aggregate short positions have been taken out by hedge funds connected to the prime minister and his vote leave campaign, run by his advisor Dominic Cummings. on a 'no deal' Brexit"

How can anyone be 'short on no deal'?
Do they mean short on Sterling?

If you're betting that no deal will not happen, then you're betting that Sterling will not drop.
Hence you should be long on Sterling.

phillw

Green_Bear wrote: »

How can anyone be 'short on no deal'?
Do they mean short on Sterling?

Probably means short on sterling, short on products the government are planning to import at 0% from every WTO country, which will also decimate UK businesses & shorts on businesses themselves

It could be that they are making sane investments based on the information they have, but if Boris feels indebted to them and they make money from a certain outcome. If we see that outcome, then there will be questions that need to be asked.

Farage received a lot of financial benefit for his part in this already, but he wasn't a minister.

Ministers aren't even allowed to have a perceived conflict of interest. There is an argument he should disqualify himself because of the situation.

Sailtheworld

Green_Bear wrote: »

Hence you should be long on Sterling.

We're all long Sterling. House, income and investments in Sterling.

It's been a losing 'bet' for the last few years.

lisyloo

Sailtheworld wrote: »

We're all long Sterling. House, income and investments in Sterling.

It's been a losing 'bet' for the last few years.

Many of us here have globally diversified pensions, although I’d be the first to point out that just about managing families won’t have globally diversified assets, so once again the worst off in society will be the biggest losers.

Green_Bear

Sailtheworld wrote: »

We're all long Sterling. House, income and investments in Sterling.

It's been a losing 'bet' for the last few years.

The very wealthy (eg JRM) often benefit from a drop in Sterling, as they derive more income from overseas and hold overseas assets.

Green_Bear

lisyloo wrote: »

Many of us here have globally diversified pensions, although I’d be the first to point out that just about managing families won’t have globally diversified assets, so once again the worst off in society will be the biggest losers.

Exactly.
An all a non-sterling investment does for most UK residents is lessen the hit.
Eventually weak Sterling will result in higher inflation and hit 90% of the population.

If trashing your own currency was such a good idea, then the population of Zimbabwe and Venezuela should be the happiest people around...

Herzlos

Green_Bear wrote: »

How can anyone be 'short on no deal'?
Do they mean short on Sterling?

If you're betting that no deal will not happen, then you're betting that Sterling will not drop.
Hence you should be long on Sterling.

No deal doesn't happen for you to make a fortune shorting Sterling. You just buy back in before the real deal is announced and voila!


You're assuming the people placing these billions in short positions don't have any insider knowledge, because that'd be illegal.

lisyloo

Herzlos wrote: »

You're assuming the people placing these billions in short positions don't have any insider knowledge, because that'd be illegal.

And the illegal would be unthinkable right in this context right.
Such things as illegally proroguing parliament and advice to the queen could never happen right?