Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

wunferall

Herzlos wrote: »

Undoubtedly apart from a few niche items we can source everything elsewhere. It just might be a lot more expensive and kill off our manufacturing industry.

Things like insulin? I'm not sure how long it can survive in transit. Ditto various cancer drugs.

So yeah, just like jumping out a 3rd floor window; it's survivable but unlikely to be a good idea.

Don't be so sensationalist; it's nothing like jumping out of any window.

If anything it is opening doors to new opportunities.
In a global economy it's often cheaper to buy from outside the EU than from inside it and in fact there are many instances where the EU has kept prices artificially inflated (Look yourself. There's plenty of examples.).
Your presumably-media-inspired example of insulin isn't a good one because not only is insulin not difficult to make but (as I'm sure you already know) Factcheck recently said "The companies that do supply the bulk of UK patients – even with products manufactured overseas – have told us that they don’t expect significant problems with supply in the event of a no-deal Brexit."
As for surviving in transit are you honestly going to suggest that it can survive a journey from Germany or Denmark but not elswhere?
:rotfl:

Again I'm sure - positive in fact - that there are many outside the EU who would dearly love to instead be supplying the UK's pharma needs and would be extremely competitive in price for that opportunity.
And of course EU pharma wouldn't suffer at all.
:doh:

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

Undoubtedly apart from a few niche items we can source everything elsewhere. It just might be a lot more expensive and kill off our manufacturing industry.
...

There has never ever been a time in history when so much 'stuff' can be sourced from elsewhere, as there is today.

Did the globalization of major industries pass you lot by up in Scotland?

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

There has never ever been a time in history when so much 'stuff' can be sourced from elsewhere, as there is today.

Did the globalization of major industries pass you lot by up in Scotland?

I'm just talking about basic logistics. Even with air freight it's going to take longer to get goods from China or Brazil than it will from France or Holland, whilst costing much more.
For stuff that isn't time critical, like bolts, you can get them shipped cheaply if you can order far enough I'm advance. Stuff with a shelf life of days or hours means you need to order it locally or pay more for air freight.

Both options realistically mean costs go up, which you might be able to offset if you can buy the stuff cheaply enough. It completely destroys any plans to use a just in time stock system though, which drives stock management costs up.

It must also be terrible for the environment to ship stuff from around the world when you can ship it from over the channel (or put it on a train).

We'll undoubtedly manage, but it's not going to yield any benefits for anyone.

Moby

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/brexit-theresa-may-agreement-no-deal-hard-leavers-fantasy-reality-a8638971.html

Cakeism continues........apparently Leadsom is going to lead the fightback against the EU with Liam Fox in the vanguard driving on the canon fodder troops with promises of unicorns for everyone.
The reality of course as always is somewhat different:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/smooth-brexit-could-cost-10bn-extra

Moby

wunferall wrote: »

I'm sorry but now I don't think you have much idea TBH.
Or do the USA, China, Singapore, Canada, Australia and more who have said in these past months that they want deals with the UK not count - and no I won't post links.
If you're genuinely interested you will look.
Or maybe you think that the world's 6th largest consumer market really won't attract prospective traders?
:doh:

So much unicorn thinking around. How advanced is our planning regarding those deals and can you guarantee that they will be better than what we already have access to on our doorstep?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-trade-deals-customs-partnership-eu-impact-theresa-may-plan-a8332411.html

Herzlos

Nadine Dorries, Leave campaigning MP, seems upset that leaving the EU means giving up our seat at the table:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/nadie-dorries-slams-brexit-deal-leave-remain-jk-rowling-a8639216.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1542489575

I can't tell at this point if she's arguing to remain or somehow thought leaving the EU meant something other than leaving the EU.

buglawton

Moby wrote: »

So much unicorn thinking around. How advanced is our planning regarding those deals and can you guarantee that they will be better than what we already have access to on our doorstep?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-trade-deals-customs-partnership-eu-impact-theresa-may-plan-a8332411.html

Teresa May has pointedly avoided making any proper preparations for WTO. That's exactly why we're in a poor negotiating position. We've claimed we wanted to leave but haven't packed any bags. I'm not sure that incompetence or deliberate mismanagement of leave arrangements should be allowed as an excuse.

buglawton

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm just talking about basic logistics. Even with air freight it's going to take longer to get goods from China or Brazil than it will from France or Holland, whilst costing much more.
For stuff that isn't time critical, like bolts, you can get them shipped cheaply if you can order far enough I'm advance. Stuff with a shelf life of days or hours means you need to order it locally or pay more for air freight.

Both options realistically mean costs go up, which you might be able to offset if you can buy the stuff cheaply enough. It completely destroys any plans to use a just in time stock system though, which drives stock management costs up.

It must also be terrible for the environment to ship stuff from around the world when you can ship it from over the channel (or put it on a train).

We'll undoubtedly manage, but it's not going to yield any benefits for anyone.

For some reason this puts me in mind of when the USSR blocked all rail and road traffic to West Berlin during the Cold War. The allies responded with the 'Daisy Bombers', an air bridge of transport planes that delivered enough fresh food and coal to keep the city running. The Air Bridge stayed in place for 11 months.

Once the total resolve of West Berliners and the Allies had been demonstrated, the Russians agreed to proper and permanent arrangements that turned out to be in the mutual interest, even as the Cold War continued.

The Russian blockade had one important side effect: It exposed the true intentions of the USSR leadership and set the West German public and Allies in a mood of determination to succeed in adversity that lasted till the Wall came down 43 years later.

In other words once we've demonstrated total resolve that we're well and truly leaving and won't be bullied, normal business and trade sanity will definitely resume. It's in the interests of real people and businesses in both sides of the Channel. Any covert one-sided trade sanctions will be rapidly exposed and set right, there's plenty of quid pro quo to be had in trade, tourism and cooperation in numerous ways.

Matt_L

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm just talking about basic logistics. Even with air freight it's going to take longer to get goods from China or Brazil than it will from France or Holland, whilst costing much more.
For stuff that isn't time critical, like bolts, you can get them shipped cheaply if you can order far enough I'm advance. Stuff with a shelf life of days or hours means you need to order it locally or pay more for air freight.

Both options realistically mean costs go up, which you might be able to offset if you can buy the stuff cheaply enough. It completely destroys any plans to use a just in time stock system though, which drives stock management costs up.

It must also be terrible for the environment to ship stuff from around the world when you can ship it from over the channel (or put it on a train).

We'll undoubtedly manage, but it's not going to yield any benefits for anyone.

I would like you to clear this up for me please because to be very honest I don't have the answers, just an opinion as to what will EXACTLY happen if we leave without a deal. So as you seem to know EXACTLY what will happen or at the very least you're posting this stuff and shouting the loudest as what will happen im hoping you can help me...

So firstly, if we leave on the 29th of March next year without a deal what will the, German, French, Spanish and Italians, do with their, Cars, Food, Drink, Components, Medicines and so on do with their thousands of trucks worth of goods destined for the UK ports??

The_Big_Seedy_Bun

buglawton wrote: »

For some reason this puts me in mind of when the USSR blocked all rail and road traffic to West Berlin during the Cold War. The allies responded with the 'Daisy Bombers', an air bridge of transport planes that delivered enough fresh food and coal to keep the city running. The Air Bridge stayed in place for 11 months.

Once the total resolve of West Berliners and the Allies had been demonstrated, the Russians agreed to proper and permanent arrangements that turned out to be in the mutual interest, even as the Cold War continued.

The Russian blockade had one important side effect: It exposed the true intentions of the USSR leadership and set the West German public and Allies in a mood of determination to succeed in adversity that lasted till the Wall came down 43 years later.

In other words once we've demonstrated total resolve that we're well and truly leaving and won't be bullied, normal business and trade sanity will definitely resume. It's in the interests of real people and businesses in both sides of the Channel. Any covert one-sided trade sanctions will be rapidly exposed and set right, there's plenty of quid pro quo to be had in trade, tourism and cooperation in numerous ways.

I would hazard a guess that few of the 52% other than those types who've built bunkers their gardens and are stockpiling distilled water are interested in this kind of confrontation.

It does speak volumes about how some of the Leave side view anything south of Dover however.