Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Herzlos

Matt_L wrote: »

I would like you to clear this up for me please because to be very honest I don't have the answers, just an opinion as to what will EXACTLY happen if we leave without a deal. So as you seem to know EXACTLY what will happen or at the very least you're posting this stuff and shouting the loudest as what will happen im hoping you can help me...

So firstly, if we leave on the 29th of March next year without a deal what will the, German, French, Spanish and Italians, do with their, Cars, Food, Drink, Components, Medicines and so on do with their thousands of trucks worth of goods destined for the UK ports??

I'm responding to the fantasy that in the case of a WTO brexit we can seamlessly switch over to buy everything from elsewhere.

If we go WTO, we'll still mostly buy the same stuff from the same places, but anything coming through the EU will take longer to arrive, and anything not sourced in GBP will cost more.

The EU will see some drop in trade/profit but not enough to force them to cave in.
We'll see a huge drop in trade/profit and will likely just stubbornly hold out for as long as we can deny that actually, yes, being in the EU was pretty good.

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

For some reason this puts me in mind of when the USSR blocked...

In other words once we've demonstrated total resolve that we're well and truly leaving and won't be bullied, normal business and trade sanity will definitely resume. It's in the interests of real people and businesses in both sides of the Channel. Any covert one-sided trade sanctions will be rapidly exposed and set right, there's plenty of quid pro quo to be had in trade, tourism and cooperation in numerous ways.

Just like that. We can pretend we're at war and stubbornly hold out until the EU gives in. But who's going to be coming to our rescue? Trump?
How miserable do we need to be before we give in to reality? How many people need to die due to lack of medicine?

It's a great way to keep migration down; bump us back to where the ex Soviet states were before the wall came down. Maybe Poles will start complaining about the English coming over and stealing their jobs and driving up house prices.

Lungboy

Does the draft agreement deal with things like plane licences and Euratom?

The_Big_Seedy_Bun

wunferall wrote: »

I'm sorry but now I don't think you have much idea TBH.
Or do the USA, China, Singapore, Canada, Australia and more who have said in these past months that they want deals with the UK not count - and no I won't post links.
If you're genuinely interested you will look.
Or maybe you think that the world's 6th largest consumer market really won't attract prospective traders?
:doh:

We can't just snap our fingers and renegotiate over 100 trading agreements from a standing start.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/03/04/leaving-the-eu-would-mean-renegotiating-more-than-100-trade-agreements/

All those other countries have enjoyed decades since the end of the War to negotiate their agreements. We will be at a standing start negotiating from a position of weakness with almost every partner.

The Americans and Australians have already said we'll need to import food from them that falls beneath our current standards, to have any hope of another trade deal. Not to mention animal welfare.

Do you know what kind of miserable existence an American intensively farmed cow goes through while it's intravenously pumped full of growth hormones and antibiotics? British farmers will either have to do the same or go out of business.

You may not care but many people do, and I don't think having that forced on them was what they had in mind when they voted Leave.

Notwithstanding the small fact that the most important one we will have to make is with the EU, and that's looking like it may not even happen.

The Brexit side has been showed to be delusional. Two and a half years of wrangling and we have one side of Brexiteers saying - "Oh nothing much will change." (well why are we doing it then) and the other side saying "It won't be that bad."

Second referendum please.

Thrugelmir

The_Big_Seedy_Bun wrote: »

Second referendum please.

Corbyn appear to have a better idea. Renegotiate entirely. :eek:

Herzlos

I'm not sure I have any more compelling reason to remain than this. Mars could run out within 2 weeks of no deal brexit:
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/brexit-no-deal-mars-bars-run-out-weeks-michael-gove-import-dover-a8638976.html

Joan_number_one_6

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm not sure I have any more compelling reason to remain than this. Mars could run out within 2 weeks of no deal brexit:

I'm not sure that there could be any more compelling reason to leave than that.
Mars running out within 2 weeks would go some way towards solving the UK's obesity problem in one fell swoop.
:T

buglawton

The_Big_Seedy_Bun wrote: »

We can't just snap our fingers and renegotiate over 100 trading agreements from a standing start.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/03/04/leaving-the-eu-would-mean-renegotiating-more-than-100-trade-agreements/

All those other countries have enjoyed decades since the end of the War to negotiate their agreements. We will be at a standing start negotiating from a position of weakness with almost every partner.

The Americans and Australians have already said we'll need to import food from them that falls beneath our current standards, to have any hope of another trade deal. Not to mention animal welfare.

Do you know what kind of miserable existence an American intensively farmed cow goes through while it's intravenously pumped full of growth hormones and antibiotics? British farmers will either have to do the same or go out of business.

You may not care but many people do, and I don't think having that forced on them was what they had in mind when they voted Leave.

Notwithstanding the small fact that the most important one we will have to make is with the EU, and that's looking like it may not even happen.

The Brexit side has been showed to be delusional. Two and a half years of wrangling and we have one side of Brexiteers saying - "Oh nothing much will change." (well why are we doing it then) and the other side saying "It won't be that bad."

Second referendum please.

Well you've nicely mixed up a number of issues there. It's known as FUD.

buglawton

Herzlos wrote: »

Just like that. We can pretend we're at war and stubbornly hold out until the EU gives in. But who's going to be coming to our rescue? Trump?
How miserable do we need to be before we give in to reality? How many people need to die due to lack of medicine?

It's a great way to keep migration down; bump us back to where the ex Soviet states were before the wall came down. Maybe Poles will start complaining about the English coming over and stealing their jobs and driving up house prices.

By using the words 'gives in' you're assuming that the EU has something to lose. Which it doesn't. As I've said, commonsense business interests will out.

Joan_number_one_6

buglawton wrote: »

By using the words 'gives in' you're assuming that the EU has something to lose. Which it doesn't. As I've said, commonsense business interests will out.

They will.
I see that German business are in todays media screeching about the harm they're about to suffer if a deal isn't reached.
Remainers told us they don't count. Do those businesses know that?
Shame, eh.