Will Britain really leave EU?

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

I don't think anyone believes you.

The remain camp continually described the possibility of Turkey joining the EU as being scaremongering.
How is that anything other than racist?

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

-round 40% of people living in London are foreign born
-it is undoubtedly true that wages would be higher in London if there were fewer immigrants to provide a wall of cheap labour.
-undoubtedly housing conditions would be much better with fewer people
-undoubtedly transport etc would be less crowded.

Its probably different in Hull.

what do a the UK population think ?

But the economy would crash overnight if 40% of the population left. We see downwards wage pressure, but we're largely a service economy these days and that 40% of the population require goods and services.

So we'd have less people competing for trade jobs, but we'd also have ~40% less jobs to do in the first place. 40% less people needing hair cuts, eating in restaurants, buying groceries, buying clothes, needing plumbers, electricians, going to pubs, buying & maintaining cars, needing double glazing, operating bank accounts, needing mobile phone plans and so on.

So yeah, there's competition in the job space, but people seem to also forget that all of these foreigners spend money.

mwpt

CLAPTON wrote: »

The remain camp continually described the possibility of Turkey joining the EU as being scaremongering.
How is that anything other than racist?

The leave camp were posting threads about Turkey potentially joining the EU as a reason to vote out. That is scaremongering.

Herzlos

gadgetmind wrote: »

OK, unfair to generalise, but the statistic certainly show that leave voters are heavily against immigration. (Ashcroft didn't ask whether EU or non-EU but I doubt many leave voters would differentiate.)

Going by the number of reports we've seen of Non-Europeans being told that we voted for them to leave, there's certainly a lot of people who don't know/care to differentiate.

CKhalvashi

AnotherJoe wrote: »

I can see your point, after all no musicians from outside the EU ever play at festivals such as Glastonbury, IOW and Reading due to that problem.

And I must have imagined going to USA on business trips because obviously there's no single market between EU and USA so doing business there must be impossible without free movement of anyone from USA coming over here to live as they please.

its obviously absolutely impossible to have any other set up to trade within Europe than allowing all of its citizens to come and live here if they wish. Simply impossible and not within the scope of anyone's ability to arrange otherwise.

And also I imagined that prior to 1973 any businesses in the UK did any trade on the continent as without free movement of people it was obviously impossible.

As I stated

You can probably appreciate that this is a lot easier without having to fill out enough paperwork to build a bridge between the UK and France to drive over.

At no point did I say it was impossible, just a lot more difficult.

gadgetmind

cells wrote: »

If the UK can get free trade deals with USA/Japan/Aus/Canada and a few more in time will that not offset some maybe most the pain?

I already do business with all of those countries. I don't expect this to get any easier whereas trade with the EU could get a whole lot harder.

I voted stay in but things don't yet look to be headed to hell.

Really? Businesses heavily exposed to the UK economy are getting hammered and are really pulling in their horns regards investment and hiring.

Here is another very worrying headline from today.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/25/manufacturers-feeling-gloomy-about-future-after-brexit-vote

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-manufacturing-cbi-idUKKCN105131

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

The leave camp were posting threads about Turkey potentially joining the EU as a reason to vote out. That is scaremongering.

why was it scary?
because 'remain' were frightened of a non white non christian country joining the club with free movement of people

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

But the economy would crash overnight if 40% of the population left. We see downwards wage pressure, but we're largely a service economy these days and that 40% of the population require goods and services.

So we'd have less people competing for trade jobs, but we'd also have ~40% less jobs to do in the first place. 40% less people needing hair cuts, eating in restaurants, buying groceries, buying clothes, needing plumbers, electricians, going to pubs, buying & maintaining cars, needing double glazing, operating bank accounts, needing mobile phone plans and so on.

So yeah, there's competition in the job space, but people seem to also forget that all of these foreigners spend money.

so you are arguing that immigrants create jobs and also fill them.
so full employment is always guaranteed?

why is there unemployment in other countries : are the laws of buying groceries, plumbing, clothes, cars etc different in their foreign countries?

gadgetmind

AnotherJoe wrote: »

And I must have imagined going to USA on business trips because obviously there's no single market between EU and USA so doing business there must be impossible without free movement of anyone from USA coming over here to live as they please.

It's not impossible but it is a serious PITA. We do a lot of trade shows in the USA and the paperwork for the equipment is onerous. We also have to have employees working on other sites (and customer premises) from time-to-time, and the visa waver programme and ESTAs don't cover this (plus not every EU national is allowed to use these) so we need to spend a lot of time and money getting visas for employees.

None of this makes business impossible, but it does present a lot of frictional costs and hassles that we can cope with as we're quite large, but they'd be a serious barrier to a SME.

gadgetmind

CLAPTON wrote: »

because 'remain' were frightened of a non white non christian country joining the club with free movement of people

See the Ashcroft survey regards attitudes of Leave and Remain voters towards immigration and multi-culturalism. I think those figures give you the answer albeit not the one you seem to want.