Will Britain really leave EU?

movilogo

Now we got a PM from remain side and most politicians are being pro-EU, do you think Britain will really leave EU?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

England and Wales will almost certainly end up leaving the EU, but very possibly not leaving the Single Market.

Scotland (and Gibraltar, and possibly Northern Ireland) could well end up remaining in the EU & Single Market.

Perfect2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

England and Wales will almost certainly end up leaving the EU, but very possibly not leaving the Single Market.

Scotland (and Gibraltar, and possibly Northern Ireland) could well end up remaining in the EU & Single Market.

Ive heard this idea being mooted by the SNP but I'm yet to see any credible evidence of how this would work in practice. If the UK leaves then all parts of the UK will surely leave with it.

IF the UK was to replace EU membership with EEA membership this would probably satisfy most remain supporters wherever they reside in the UK.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Perfect2 wrote: »

Ive heard this idea being mooted by the SNP but I'm yet to see any credible evidence of how this would work in practice. If the UK leaves then all parts of the UK will surely leave with it.

The idea being floated currently is a 'reverse Greenland'.

Denmark is an EU member but the Danish territory Greenland is not following changes in the 1980's.

In essence the residual membership of the EU could pass to Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar while England and Wales leave.

This is not necessarily an SNP initiative - it's come out of the back of talks between the Scottish Govt and Gibraltar - but Northern Ireland appears keen to get involved as well.

IF the UK was to replace EU membership with EEA membership this would probably satisfy most remain supporters wherever they reside in the UK

The goal for Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar (and the democratic mandate of the people to their governments) is to maintain full EU membership.

But so long as those parts of the UK maintain full access to the Single Market and keep our rights to freedom of movement I suspect that would indeed be enough to keep most Remainers happy and avoid a break-up of the UK.

On a practical note the UK government knows full well it can't afford to lose single market access for England and Wales either, so my suspicion is the UK will end up staying in the single market, maintaining pretty much full freedom of movement with possibly some benefits restrictions, and paying about as much as it does today for full EU membership.

.string.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The idea being floated currently is a 'reverse Greenland'.

Denmark is an EU member but the Danish territory Greenland is not following changes in the 1980's.

In essence the residual membership of the EU could pass to Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar while England and Wales leave.

This is not necessarily an SNP initiative - it's come out of the back of talks between the Scottish Govt and Gibraltar - but Northern Ireland appears keen to get involved as well.



The goal for Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar (and the democratic mandate of the people to their governments) is to maintain full EU membership.

But so long as those parts of the UK maintain full access to the Single Market and keep our rights to freedom of movement I suspect that would indeed be enough to keep most Remainers happy and avoid a break-up of the UK.

On a practical note the UK government knows full well it can't afford to lose single market access for England and Wales either, so my suspicion is the UK will end up staying in the single market, maintaining pretty much full freedom of movement with possibly some benefits restrictions, and paying about as much as it does today for full EU membership.

Much as we in the remain camp forecast would be the case.

However there is the problem that the "no uncontrolled immigration" mantra would seem an insurmountable obstacle for the UK Brexiteer negotiating team.. The matter of cost is also a problem if the EU were to expect similar payments from the EU as before; whereas it's entirely reasonable to pay the overheads of maintaining the free market, the subsidiary costs related to subsidies to different parts of Europe and other purely "closer together" projects do not have the veneer of fairness. The other obstacle is the matter of the service industries as to whether they are included as now. Some pills could be too difficult to swallow, even for a die hard remainer like myself.

I suspect it is more likely that the result will be a lower value pound being accepted and with it the better cost competitiveness of UK Products.

In the end it is really dependant on whether the EU is prepared to negotiate the terms or insists on dictating them. That's where skill in negotiation comes into play,

Tromking

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

England and Wales will almost certainly end up leaving the EU, but very possibly not leaving the Single Market.

Scotland (and Gibraltar, and possibly Northern Ireland) could well end up remaining in the EU & Single Market.

How on earth would that work?
If the Remainers are right and the UK takes a considerable economic hit in the event of Brexit, the rUK are not going to swallow Scotland and NI having a best of worlds scenario, especially if their still in reciept of the massive subsidy they both recieve by way of Barnett.
Scotland and Ulster need to vote to leave to the Union and then worry about the EU.

martinthebandit

Scotland doesn't, and cannot without a great deal more 'austerity' meet the rules for membership of the EU

mrginge

Tromking wrote: »

How on earth would that work?
If the Remainers are right and the UK takes a considerable economic hit in the event of Brexit, the rUK are not going to swallow Scotland and NI having a best of worlds scenario, especially if their still in reciept of the massive subsidy they both recieve by way of Barnett.
Scotland and Ulster need to vote to leave to the Union and then worry about the EU.

Exactly. It's just desperate posturing.

The can of worms of manufacturing some convoluted half-in/half-out scenario for Scotland is not something that the UK or EU are going to be remotely interested in.

TrickyTree83

The reverse Greenland suggestion has already been shut down. It's not possible to remain a member of the UK and a member of the EU where the UK is outside of the EU. For example:

Lets assume that this has actually taken place. The UK as a whole is outside of the EU, yet Scotland is within the EU and as such holds a seat on the commission along with veto rights. The Scottish parliament is subservient to Westminster if they remain in the UK. So the UK parliament will have authority over a seat on the EU commission without actually being a member of the EU. So even if Scotland wants it, even if the UK would allow it, the EU will not. Not in the same way you're members now. Think how stupid this is, it would be like the USA having a veto on EU foreign policy. So fully fledged membership whilst remaining in the UK just isn't possible. EEA / EFTA might be possible but that's not what Sturgeon has been harping on about and we may well end up with that for the whole UK, which will have far better bargaining power than just 5 million people in Scotland.

So in short, the whole of the UK will leave the EU, including Scotland and Northern Ireland.

There will be no indy ref 2 or indy ref 1 for NI.

It's time people came to terms with the truth of the situation and realised it's ridiculous.

BobQ

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The idea being floated currently is a 'reverse Greenland'.

Denmark is an EU member but the Danish territory Greenland is not following changes in the 1980's.

In essence the residual membership of the EU could pass to Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar while England and Wales leave.

This is not necessarily an SNP initiative - it's come out of the back of talks between the Scottish Govt and Gibraltar - but Northern Ireland appears keen to get involved as well.



The goal for Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar (and the democratic mandate of the people to their governments) is to maintain full EU membership.

But so long as those parts of the UK maintain full access to the Single Market and keep our rights to freedom of movement I suspect that would indeed be enough to keep most Remainers happy and avoid a break-up of the UK.

On a practical note the UK government knows full well it can't afford to lose single market access for England and Wales either, so my suspicion is the UK will end up staying in the single market, maintaining pretty much full freedom of movement with possibly some benefits restrictions, and paying about as much as it does today for full EU membership.

Would it not be cheaper to put up signs at the border saying

You are now leaving the EU
Please check you have your passport.
Nothing else will change.

England and Wales is a free country that controls its destiny

Kohoutek

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It's time people came to terms with the truth of the situation and realised it's ridiculous.

The problem is for Gibraltar, Northern Ireland and Scotland, leaving the EU is exactly that, 'ridiculous':

Gibraltar: Its economy is dependent on thousands of worker who live in Spain (and cross the border every day). It voted to stay in the EU.

Northern Ireland: A hard border with the Republic of Ireland is a very bad idea, for lots of obvious reasons, including the economy, the peace process, practicality. It voted to stay in the EU.

Scotland: To a great extent, it is self-governing nation. It voted to stay in the EU. It would very likely be better off economically staying in the EU.