Will Britain really leave EU?

CLAPTON

Kohoutek wrote: »

The problem is for Gibraltar, Northern Ireland and Scotland, leaving the EU is exactly that, 'ridiculous':


Gibraltar: Its economy is dependent on thousands of worker who live in Spain (and cross the border every day). It voted to stay in the EU.

why is it ridiculous for workers to continue to cross the border after brexit?

Northern Ireland: A hard border with the Republic of Ireland is a very bad idea, for lots of obvious reasons, including the economy, the peace process, practicality. It voted to stay in the EU.

the problems are modest
The EU has other borders with non -EU countries

Scotland: To a great extent, it is self-governing nation. It voted to stay in the EU. It would very likely be better off economically staying in the EU.

whether they stay or go is up to them : there will be another referendum if enough scots want it.

chewmylegoff

I think the whole of the UK will leave the EU but the actual substance of what that means will not change much. We will retain full access to the single market and keep freedom of movement but that will be slightly tweaked so that EU citizens have the automatic right to come and work in the UK but they don't have recourse to public funds until they meet some sort of threshold based on residency (ie EU citizens will be treated in the same way as immigrants from non-EU countries except that they won't have to get a visa).

Basically we trade the ability to be at the heart of designing EU legislation and our veto over it for the ability not to pay certain benefits to certain immigrants.

vivatifosi

Regarding the border with Ireland. I heard an interview on R4 yesterday, I think with David Davis. He said that there would be no change to the border. The act governing it predates our entry to the EU and there is no reason to change.

The UK has already been in discussion with the Irish government over this point, with both sides agreeing that putting a hard border back is undesirable.

TrickyTree83

Kohoutek wrote: »

The problem is for Gibraltar, Northern Ireland and Scotland, leaving the EU is exactly that, 'ridiculous':

Gibraltar: Its economy is dependent on thousands of worker who live in Spain (and cross the border every day). It voted to stay in the EU.

Northern Ireland: A hard border with the Republic of Ireland is a very bad idea, for lots of obvious reasons, including the economy, the peace process, practicality. It voted to stay in the EU.

Scotland: To a great extent, it is self-governing nation. It voted to stay in the EU. It would very likely be better off economically staying in the EU.

It's not ridiculous that we're leaving the EU.

People will still travel across borders, the way they do it may change perhaps, but they will still tavel across them.

Trade will still travel across borders, the way that happens may change, but trade will still travel across them.

Northern Ireland: There won't be a hard border. The Common Travel Area will still remain in force.

Scotland: To a great extent, sure, to the credit of the UK government. Joining the EU would be moving towards a union which is centralising powers not devolving them. Reverse Greenland cannot happen. The only way Scotland will remain in the EU is by becoming independent, and that doesn't look like happening under May at least. Both governments said they would respect the 2014 indy ref result before it took place, they were both aware that an EU ref was in a Tory manifesto. There's nowhere to go with this except a lot of noise from the SNP. And economically better off? Would love to see the maths behind that.

Thrugelmir

movilogo wrote: »

Now we got a PM from remain side and most politicians are being pro-EU, do you think Britain will really leave EU?

The ball is now rolling. It's not as if plans are already being made. Like to see remain Labour MP's try to hold onto their seats in the North in a General Election.

vivatifosi

We will leave the EU. I haven't voted as not sure of timing but we will leave. I do however totally agree with chewy on what the end scenario will look like.

Herzlos

I think we'll "leave the EU" in name, but in practice we'll concede to so many points that we'll be exactly where we started but without the veto and concessions.

Filo25

vivatifosi wrote: »

Regarding the border with Ireland. I heard an interview on R4 yesterday, I think with David Davis. He said that there would be no change to the border. The act governing it predates our entry to the EU and there is no reason to change.

The UK has already been in discussion with the Irish government over this point, with both sides agreeing that putting a hard border back is undesirable.

The issue is that it has never been a border between the UK and the EU before, as Ireland joined the EU at the same time as the UK did,

mwpt

For me, aside from worrying about the future of my particular industry, this has now become an interesting experiment to watch unfold. Will the EU risk it's very foundations and cave on free movement? What will they demand in return? Hmm.

Tammykitty

Filo25 wrote: »

The issue is that it has never been a border between the UK and the EU before, as Ireland joined the EU at the same time as the UK did,

San Marino is not in the EU and yet there is no hard border between it and Italy