Will Britain really leave EU?

Gangaweed

chewmylegoff wrote: »

I think the whole of the UK will leave the EU but the actual substance of what that means will not change much. We will retain full access to the single market and keep freedom of movement but that will be slightly tweaked so that EU citizens have the automatic right to come and work in the UK but they don't have recourse to public funds until they meet some sort of threshold based on residency (ie EU citizens will be treated in the same way as immigrants from non-EU countries except that they won't have to get a visa).

Basically we trade the ability to be at the heart of designing EU legislation and our veto over it for the ability not to pay certain benefits to certain immigrants.

As long as that means the UK is out of the political project and has the ability to do trade deals with the rest of the world, that's fine for me. The notion that it won't have any influence on EU legislation is just not true - Norway does!

I do believe that the EU will be weakened enormously by the UK leaving though, the UK did bring a lot of sense to EU direction, including completion of the single market. There is also the weight of its army and diplomatic strength.

For me, the ability to to prepare for disintegration of the euro (which will happen at some point) through greater trade ties is very important.

Thrugelmir

mwpt wrote: »

Will the EU risk it's very foundations and cave on free movement?

There's no longer free movement in the east of the EU. Little Brussels can do.

peter_we

Gangaweed wrote: »

As long as that means the UK is out of the political project and has the ability to do trade deals with the rest of the world, that's fine for me. The notion that it won't have any influence on EU legislation is just not true - Norway does!

No it doesn't.

Gangaweed wrote: »

I do believe that the EU will be weakened enormously by the UK leaving though, the UK did bring a lot of sense to EU direction, including completion of the single market. There is also the weight of its army and diplomatic strength.

We'll see just how the UK manages to retain its diplomatic strength when it has no influence in the worlds biggest trading block.

Gangaweed wrote: »

For me, the ability to to prepare for disintegration of the euro (which will happen at some point) through greater trade ties is very important.

After what happened with Greece, what else could make the Euro fail? It isn't and hasn't failed.

Trade ties and diplomatic influence is something we are giving up by leaving the EU.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

There's no longer free movement in the east of the EU. Little Brussels can do.

Not true.

Thrugelmir

peter_we wrote: »

Not true.

I was referring to this and the changing face of Europe.

The Great Wall of Europe: Hungary splits continent in two with huge fence to stop migrants

Not everyone flys by Easyjet to their destination. Unhindered travel on the ground is essential to free trade.

mayonnaise

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I was referring to this and the changing face of Europe.

Not everyone flys by Easyjet to their destination. Unhindered travel on the ground is essential to free trade.

So you referred to a fence between a EU and a non-EU country.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

There's no longer free movement in the east of the EU. Little Brussels can do.

Still wrong. Try again.

Thrugelmir

mayonnaise wrote: »

So you referred to a fence between a EU and a non-EU country.



Still wrong. Try again.

Croatia perhaps ? :think:

Best to think before jumping in.

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

So you referred to a fence between a EU and a non-EU country.



Still wrong. Try again.

barriers between Hungary and Croatia and Slovenia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_border_barrier

mayonnaise

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Croatia perhaps ? :think:

Best to think before jumping in.

Ah yes, I was wrong.
I'll think before posting next time.

tara747

chewmylegoff wrote: »

I think the whole of the UK will leave the EU but the actual substance of what that means will not change much. We will retain full access to the single market and keep freedom of movement but that will be slightly tweaked so that EU citizens have the automatic right to come and work in the UK but they don't have recourse to public funds until they meet some sort of threshold based on residency (ie EU citizens will be treated in the same way as immigrants from non-EU countries except that they won't have to get a visa).

Basically we trade the ability to be at the heart of designing EU legislation and our veto over it for the ability not to pay certain benefits to certain immigrants.

Herzlos wrote: »

I think we'll "leave the EU" in name, but in practice we'll concede to so many points that we'll be exactly where we started but without the veto and concessions.

I agree with both of you. The Kippers won't be happy, but they never are :rotfl:

martinthebandit

tara747 wrote: »

I agree with both of you. The Kippers won't be happy, but they never are :rotfl:

Which will mean more of them, or more of them will vote for other than the Torys or Labour, let's face it one of the main reasons Cameron won a majority at the last GE was because of the promise of a referendum which caused a considerable number (or enough) of 'lite kippers' to vote for them

To be seen to renage, in some way on the result of that referendum would be political suicide and that's not something the Tory's, unlike Labour, seem to do very often.