The EU: IN or OUT?

Mr_Costcutter

BucksLady wrote: »

What a messy business this campaign has been. So much feeling and yet so few facts. Won't it be great when it is all over lol

I do agree with you. After last night's debate I've been left feeling that whatever the country decides it will be like opening Pandora's box. My wife will be voting 'remain' and I will be voting 'leave'. We have had some heated discussions lol

kingrulzuk

Can’t wait for this to get over and done with

BananaRepublic

maxie014 wrote: »

Its just reinforced my opinion that all politicians at all levels are totally full of bull s***.

I cant honestly beleive some of the crap thats gone on.

Well said. Both sides are full of it. Total lies.

maxie014 wrote: »

sort of like the vichy french government during the war

:rotfl:

Tammykitty

My vote is because I have tried to weigh up the pros and cons of the EU and of remaining and leaving


I think there is a possibility the economy will suffer in the short term, but even this isn't guaranteed, but to me the vote is about much more than the short term economy, it is about the future of the UK in the long term for us for our children, grand children and great grandchildren


I don't like the lies in the media - no one actually knows what will happen in an out vote.


We will not immediately stop trade with Europe, we will not have a trade agreement with the EU, but we deal successfully with the US, china etc all without a trade agreement and with many other countries without a free trade agreement.
AS a member of the commonwealth we would the power to set up free trade arrangements with any non EU commonwealth country, something we can't currently do as all our trade agreements are negotiated via the EU.
After a Brexit, we will continue to trade with EU countries, and countries with whom the EU has a trade agreement and simply pay tariffs of an average of about 3% (There are rules as per World trade organization surrounding international trade).


The saved fees may or may not be spent on the NHS, it will be up to the UK government how they spend the money saved.


A UK/IRELAND border may or may not be required - there will still be free movement of people between the UK and Ireland as we are still connected via the common travel area. However there will not be free movement of goods. I personally believe there will be "spot checks" at the border and a requirement to declare any goods (Ie - like the non EU customs checks at the airport), but again we don't know.


Immigration and Emigration - Expats and current immigrants will not have to return home, under the Vienna convention, they are entitled to live under the immigration rules that applied at the time they moved. What may change is access to health care, provision of benefits and future immigration and emigration.


Human Rights - The European Court of Human rights is entirely separate from the EU (Proposed and governed by the Council for Europe), and will remain post a Brexit, unless a separate agreement to leave this too


Overall, I feel that the original EEC was good, but the EU as it currently is bad, and it is also going to get worse.
The member states are too different financially and culturally for a combined economic and political unit to work for the benefit of all.


The "good" of the EU to me comes down to a few points
Free Trade agreement and the "bulk" negotiating, this is most likely positive to the UK Economy.
A higher power -someone to go to above the UK justice, if you don't believe you got the right result in the UK, it is a way to make the UK government accountable.
Visa free travel for me to the EU
The certainty of staying in versus the uncertainty of leaving


The "Bad" is
Free Trade arrangement and an inability to negotiate our own trade agreements with major trading powers.
Visa free travel for Eastern Europeans to the UK
Regulation and effect on small businesses
Uncertainty around the future of the EU and our ability to have an effective relationship on the fringes of the EU (ie: Not in the Eurozone)
Removal of Sovereignty.


The reason for me voting out mostly surrounds the bottom 2 issues


I do not like the inability to make our own laws and to spend our money how we like it.


I not like the EU dictating we cannot remove VAT on Tampons (overall a small issue, but shows that we do not have power to make our own rules - the EU overruled our judgment)


Public Sector spending and the need for EU tenders, we can't prop up failing UK industries trough extensive public sector contracts, as all contracts over a certain amount must go to an EU tender and may be awarded to a non UK firm (I also don't like the red tape around this - as it means it takes longer to get some essential services in place)


Fishing Quota's - why should we be answerable to the EU on how much we fish?


The unfair commercial practices directive - takes the meaning of Free Trade and common market to a whole new level.


Unfair competition laws - inability of the UK government to give state aid to failing businesses as it would give them an "unfair advantage", and yet the EU gives aid to many businesses to help them relocate in disadvantaged EU regions (which disadvantages the UK business in competition with it, and may actually mean relocation from the UK to the disadvantaged region)


Income Tax, there is a current proposal to reduce corporation tax in Northern Ireland, however this would mean a reduction in the block grant NI receive from Westminster, this is imposed by EU rules, Westminster have no option but to reduce the block grant due to lost revenue (Although they might do so anyway- again we don't know what the government would do if not restricted by the EU Rules). The loss of tax to the UK treasury would we hope be offset by an increase in income tax, due to an increase in employment, and a reduction in benefits (again due to the lower corporation tax and its positive effect on the economy), however the UK treasury has no ability to alter the reduction in the block grant, it is imposed by the EU. I assume the same also applies to Scotland and Wales should they decrease corporation tax.


Overall each of these issues is small in its own right- but the EU has the ability to impose too many restrictions on the UK, and there is an increasing number of rules coming out of the EU.


The UK is a bad example of democracy, so maybe we do need a higher power, but we don't need one that is even more undemocratic.


A referendum is an ultimate expression of the will of the people and the EU (and national governments) has seen fit to ignore the results of referendums surrounding issues with the EU and to force a second vote


Eg:
Denmark voted in the referendum in June 1992 against the Maastricht treaty, the re-negotiated version was approved in a second referendum in May 1993.
In 2001 Irish voters rejected the Treaty of Nice, in a second referendum 2002 it was approved.
France voted in May 2005 against the proposed European Constitution. Referenda would have also to be held in Czech, Denmark, Ireland, Poland, Portugal and the UK. As the risk of more refusals was too high, the European Union decided to modify the text and sign them as treaty by the national governments, this is what we have today as Treaty of Lisbon (which was also rejected by the Irish in a referendum, and there was a second referendum).


The power of the EU is the basis for my vote to leave!


PS - as the EU has history of "arranging" a second referendum, in the event of a vote it doesn't like, even if the you think the UK is better in Europe vote out, if you vote out, it will probably just mean a better deal is negotiated between the UK and EU and there is a second referendum.

bowlhead99

BJV wrote: »

I was talking with someone the other day about the vote and as they said if the vote was not to stay in or leave put to join how would you vote. My answer bearing mind the state of the EU at the moment was no. The issue is that leaving may cause so much upheaval and take so long is it worth it ?

Presumably in that hypothetical state of affairs, where we were not already part of the EU, we would already have our own independently negotiated trading agreements with all the other useful countries in the world (including the EU as a bloc), and we would be considering what Europe wanted us to do to get access to (1) potentially better terms and cooperation with Europe and (2) a piggy-back on the agreements which they (with their 450 million people) had negotiated with other parts of the world.

We would know what they had on the table as an offer, and what we had already got as "outsiders", and we could see whether pursuing integration with them would seem worth it. Depending on our own position, when we evaluated what they had to offer -it might seem decent, or it might not, and we could vote accordingly.

However, we don't have that state of affairs, so the point is moot.

At the moment we have agreements predicated on us being an EU member. Our choice is to leave and then from a position of relative weakness, over the next decade or so try to get a good deal with Europe, US, China etc without having to bend over backwards, and doing this while being unable to tell those countries what deals (if any) we'll eventually have with the other ones, because they're years off.

So, that's what leaving gets us. As you say, leaving would cause a lot of upheaval, and there's no guarantee that when we go cap in hand to the Chinese or the US and say " hey, we're a lot smaller than the EU, but can we get at least as good, or preferably better deal, as they get please?", they will be generous. Pretty unlikely IMHO

Whatever the political spin around Obama saying we're not first on the list for a trade deal, and must wait our turn behind EU and others - if we go to US and China and Japan and say "we'd like a sweet deal please, but we don't know if your car companies can put a factory here and export cars tariff-free to Spain, because we haven't got our agreement sorted with EU yet", then the answer will probably be, " hmm, OK, let's wait and think on that for a long while".

But hey, Boris is happy that counts as "taking back control" because we the people become masters of our destiny without having to bend to anybody's will or do things we don't want.

It is a pretty bad example of "taking back control" for the man on the street - because to avoid having our GDP decimated our politicians will have to bow and beg before wealthy corporations and powerful countries (including the EU as a bloc) to get anywhere, and it will take years.

BananaRepublic

moneyfoolish wrote: »

although I have always felt - and still feel - that the majority will vote to remain within the EU.

That is because they see it as the status quo, whereas in reality it is tying ourselves to the EU juggernaut hurtling down the slope to its destiny, whatever that is. Neither choice is the status quo. The EU is changing, dramatically, and has suffered massive shocks and might suffer more in the years to come.

BucksLady

[QUOTE=Mr_Costcutter;70871299_My_wife_will_be_voting_'remain'_and_I_will_be_voting_'leave'._We_have_had_some_heated_discussions_lol[/QUOTE]

You must try to change her mind:). It's not too late to treat her to a 'Brexit Hamper' - it even comes with a Boris bagel

Chickabiddybex

bigadaj wrote: »

Both sides are laughable, and they are lying, but it's politicians so what do you expect.

I don't understand your point about less control though, maybe you could expand on that?

We would enter an agreement with the EU to keep access to the single market and that would include joiining the Schengen area. Don't forget Boris Johnson doesn't get to decide what happens if we leave - our MPs do. 450 our of 650 are pro EU. The most likely outcome is one similar to Norway, and we'd open our borders in order to access the single market.

jimjames

Mr_Costcutter wrote: »

I do agree with you. After last night's debate I've been left feeling that whatever the country decides it will be like opening Pandora's box. My wife will be voting 'remain' and I will be voting 'leave'. We have had some heated discussions lol

Had both sets of inlaws over at the weekend. Made for an "interesting" evening when they are both adamant they are right and are on opposite sides!


Just seen the odds offered for new punters on Betfair. If you believe we will be leaving then 10/1 odds on leave seem pretty good!

bigadaj

Chickabiddybex wrote: »

We would enter an agreement with the EU to keep access to the single market and that would include joiining the Schengen area. Don't forget Boris Johnson doesn't get to decide what happens if we leave - our MPs do. 450 our of 650 are pro EU. The most likely outcome is one similar to Norway, and we'd open our borders in order to access the single market.

Fair enough, the U.K. Is obviously a far larger economy and the trade deficit will come into play, but it's possible.

Given immigration is the one massive factor that is promoting people to leave then pro eu MPs would struggle to retain their seats if voting for open borders.