If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

CLAPTON wrote: »

I don't doubt your fanatic certaintly about your ability as an economic forecaster but I lack full confidence in your abilities.

Fine Clapton.

Have it your way.

There won't be a recession when we vote Leave.

michaels

Just had a quick look and for over 75% of days in the campaign the remain camp have managed to get at least the BBC to be headlining on the economic consequences of brexit which is thought to be their one strong card - and yet the polls if they re showing any movement it is towards leave.

Why have the tactics that one the Scottish vote and the GE apparently broken down with the London Mayoral vote and at least so far the Brexit campaign? The polls are definitely much more towards brexit than they ever were towards a Scottish yes.

setmefree2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

And we're getting way off topic because you seem unable to understand this.

The Thread is Called "What Happens When We Brexit?"

The answer is "We go into Recession."

I don't know how much more "On Topic" you want me to be?

michaels

setmefree2 wrote: »

I come on here to understand other posters opinions. They really do think there will be no recession.

AMAZING!

There is probably a 40% chance of there being a recession if remain wins so it would seem foolish to rule it out if brexit wins.

However the timing is unclear because it is not as if anyhting will change on 24th June so any impact is likely to be spread over a period of several years and thus suppose underying growth is 2% and this is hit by 0.5% pa for 5 years it is still possible there woudl be no recession as in 2 Qs of below zero growth.

TrickyTree83

michaels wrote: »

Just had a quick look and for over 75% of days in the campaign the remain camp have managed to get at least the BBC to be headlining on the economic consequences of brexit which is thought to be their one strong card - and yet the polls if they re showing any movement it is towards leave.

Why have the tactics that one the Scottish vote and the GE apparently broken down with the London Mayoral vote and at least so far the Brexit campaign? The polls are definitely much more towards brexit than they ever were towards a Scottish yes.

If what you say is correct to me it would point to project fear not having an impact on the Scottish referendum as the SNP suggests?

TrickyTree83

michaels wrote: »

There is probably a 40% chance of there being a recession if remain wins so it would seem foolish to rule it out if brexit wins.

However the timing is unclear because it is not as if anyhting will change on 24th June so any impact is likely to be spread over a period of several years and thus suppose underying growth is 2% and this is hit by 0.5% pa for 5 years it is still possible there woudl be no recession as in 2 Qs of below zero growth.

Thank you. :A

Rinoa

michaels wrote: »

Run a project fear campaign and it turns out it might be hard to get the less than enthused to vote for the option that can only be sold on the grounds that it isn't as bad as the alternative. Somehow I don't see the country breaking into mass celebrations if remain squeak a narrow victory.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36471788

Panic Stations. Even the Guardian journalist said he looked rattled.

The people know Cameron all too well. They know they can't trust a word he says. A busted flush whose premiership is perilously close to ending 16 days from now.

Conrad

setmefree2 wrote: »

I am a realist.

I do believe there will 100% be a recession if we vote Leave.

For many reasons it will trigger a great boom.


For 730 days you wont notice a thing anyway, French girls will still buy and download the Coldplay album, Waitrose will still stock Provence wines, Audi will still sell us cars.


It is very simple for us to do a trade deal, our rules are already aligned with the EU's and EVERYONE has a mutual interest in not disrupting trade.


Certain nations such as France sell us a heck of a lot (16.7% of their output) and have high unemployment and an upcoming election, NO CHANCE they will wish to harm trade.


On day 731 no one will notice any detrimental change, our boom will be well under way, deep Commonwealth links affording all sorts of leverage (look at a map of the ASEAN nations and Chinas strategic aims in Asia)

setmefree2

michaels wrote: »

There is probably a 40% chance of there being a recession if remain wins so it would seem foolish to rule it out if brexit wins.

However the timing is unclear because it is not as if anyhting will change on 24th June so any impact is likely to be spread over a period of several years and thus suppose underying growth is 2% and this is hit by 0.5% pa for 5 years it is still possible there woudl be no recession as in 2 Qs of below zero growth.

The impact - I'm guessing - will be immediate - all that uncertainty??? How could it not be??

I'm thinking it will be quite long lasting too??? Protracted Trade negotiations??? Housing market will fall and destabilize banks ??? A lot of people unemployed ??? Foreclosures??? Pension deficits ??? Cuts to public services???

Conrad

setmefree2 wrote: »

There won't be a recession when we vote Leave.

Can you rule out recessions and / or us having to cough up more for the EU (remember Dave said he refused to pay the £1.7bn sudden demand for funds in December 2015 - I think we paid a billion though)?


There are so many downsides to remain, but you guys don't worry about these, only the possible downsides of leave.


There will be a boom on leaving