If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

setmefree2 wrote: »

I come on here to understand other posters opinions. They really do think there will be no recession.

AMAZING!

simply repeating yourself doesn't make it any more credible:

evidence, a line of logical arguments, even authoritive statements from people/organisations with a track record of being correct would be more conducive to reasoned debate.

TrickyTree83

setmefree2 wrote: »

Protracted Trade negotiations???

Article 50 states we have at least 2 years of the status quo in which to negotiate our terms. Which could be extended beyond that if all of the remaining states agree to the extension.

On this basis I would say that even if there were an immediate impact that michaels's analysis that it would be spread over time would be more accurate.

setmefree2

Conrad wrote: »

For 730 days you wont notice a thing anyway, French girls will still buy and download the Coldplay album, Waitrose will still stock Provence wines, Audi will still sell us cars.

Whist it's true that this is how your Average Joe may behave - markets will not behave like that.

The rest of your post is hope or downright fantasy.

setmefree2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Article 50 states we have at least 2 years of the status quo in which to negotiate our terms. Which could be extended beyond that if all of the remaining states agree to the extension.

And that's not protracted trade negotiations??

setmefree2

Conrad wrote: »

There are so many downsides to remain, but you guys don't worry about these, only the possible downsides of leave.

I accept that now there is a very high chance we might leave. I just want to understand what realistically the world is going to look like on June 24th....

...you know that was the OP....

TrickyTree83

setmefree2 wrote: »

And that's not protracted trade negotiations??

So we're ignoring the fact that after June 23rd and a Leave vote the existing trade arrangements we have today with the EU and the rest of the world remain in place for a minimum of 2 years?

setmefree2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

So we're ignoring the fact that after June 23rd and a Leave vote the existing trade arrangements we have today with the EU and the rest of the world remain in place for a minimum of 2 years?

Markets won't care.

Rinoa

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

So we're ignoring the fact that after June 23rd and a Leave vote the existing trade arrangements we have today with the EU and the rest of the world remain in place for a minimum of 2 years?

And that's 2 years from when we notify the EU of our wish to leave. There's no mad rush, we can hold talks with the EU and other countries as long as we wish before we formally give them notice of our intention.

CLAPTON

setmefree2 wrote: »

The impact - I'm guessing - will be immediate - all that uncertainty??? How could it not be??

I'm thinking it will be quite long lasting too??? Protracted Trade negotiations??? Housing market will fall and destabilize banks ??? A lot of people unemployed ??? Foreclosures??? Pension deficits ??? Cuts to public services???

lots of things cause uncertainty
is lack of clarity on TTIP causing uncertaintly?
is the Chinese economy and huge debt mountian causing uncertainty?
are USA jobs figures causing uncertainty?
surely all decent rational people would welcome a reduction in the price of london property
what analysis suggests that house price reduction would destablise the banks?
if a house price decline does destablise the banks, surely would would be an enormous failure of the BoE which you seem to have a huge regard.

setmefree2

CLAPTON wrote: »

lots of things cause uncertainty
is lack of clarity on TTIP causing uncertaintly?
is the Chinese economy and huge debt mountian causing uncertainty?
are USA jobs figures causing uncertainty?
surely all decent rational people would welcome a reduction in the price of london property
what analysis suggests that house price reduction would destablise the banks?
if a house price decline does destablise the banks, surely would would be an enormous failure of the BoE which you seem to have a huge regard.

To be honest, I have thought about and discussed the implications of Friday's Jobs figures in the US and I do think about the state of China.

What are you saying? That we are two and half weeks away from an event which might throw the UK economy into a serious recession and you haven't really given any thought to what that recession might look like???? And how it might effect your finances?? The finances of your family???

When will you think about it? When it's on top of you?