If we vote for Brexit what happens

TrickyTree83

Rinoa wrote: »

And that's 2 years from when we notify the EU of our wish to leave. There's no mad rush, we can hold talks with the EU and other countries as long as we wish before we formally give them notice of our intention.

I'd forgotten that. Great point.

Ted_Bloke

Conrad wrote: »

For many reasons it will trigger a great boom.


For 730 days you wont notice a thing anyway, French girls will still buy and download the Coldplay album, Waitrose will still stock Provence wines, Audi will still sell us cars.


It is very simple for us to do a trade deal, our rules are already aligned with the EU's and EVERYONE has a mutual interest in not disrupting trade.


Certain nations such as France sell us a heck of a lot (16.7% of their output) and have high unemployment and an upcoming election, NO CHANCE they will wish to harm trade.


On day 731 no one will notice any detrimental change, our boom will be well under way, deep Commonwealth links affording all sorts of leverage (look at a map of the ASEAN nations and Chinas strategic aims in Asia)

Conrad, I do not like your new avatar. Can I offer you another?

CLAPTON

setmefree2 wrote: »

To be honest, I have thought about and discussed the implications of Friday's Jobs figures in the US and I do think about the state of China.

What are you saying? That we are two and half weeks away from an event which might throw the UK economy into a serious recession and you haven't really given any thought to what that recession might look like???? And how it might effect your finances?? The finances of your family???

When will you think about it? When it's on top of you?

sensible people will always expect things to change;

I never believed that boom and bust had been abolished.
so I have no particular need to take any specific actions in anticipation of e.g. Germany leaveing the EU or USA job figures falling again or the price of oil dropping to 5 dollars or rising to 150 or China becoming a democracy or Greece seeing the light and leaving the euro or any other regional 'catastrophy'.
I probably would be concrned if Russia invaded Europe but I have no specific contingency plans for that.

But I see a fall in house prices as a positive thing, similarly with far fewer immigrants, less foreign 'investment', fewer imports etc

Rinoa

Following the head of the WTO (Who Generali was praising earlier for his knowledge of such things) today saying it would cost UK exporters £5.6Bn after we left the EU...

http://news.sky.com/story/1708309/brexit-could-cost-uk-exporters-5-6bn-a-year

...we now have the business secretary saying the cost to UK exporters would be £34.4Bn.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-could-cost-the-uk-34bn-in-export-tax-and-other-trade-barriers-sajid-javid-says-a7068696.html

And Cameron says its Leave telling all the lies.

Thrugelmir

setmefree2 wrote: »

What are you saying? That we are two and half weeks away from an event which might throw the UK economy into a serious recession and you haven't really given any thought to what that recession might look like???? And how it might effect your finances?? The finances of your family???

Ask the 11,000 BHS employees what the world looks like now. Majority will be in direct competition with immigrants from Italy and Spain for work. In the lower unskilled , semi skilled jobs market. Open door policies aren't working. Dave's manifesto pledges of 2010 and 2015 are looking like a huge hammer hanging over his head.

.string.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Ask the 11,000 BHS employees what the world looks like now. Majority will be in direct competition with immigrants from Italy and Spain for work. In the lower unskilled , semi skilled jobs market. Open door policies aren't working. Dave's manifesto pledges of 2010 and 2015 are looking like a huge hammer hanging over his head.

I don't want to get into a sort of "My Brits are better than your Brits", but I can't help remarking that of course I have every confidence in Brits begin competitive compared with their European counterparts.

No need to take that remark too seriously - I'm just getting at the Brexit Claim that some people are talking down the UK by being pro EU.

BobQ

Capital leaving the country?

http://news.sky.com/story/1708390/billions-of-pounds-leave-uk-ahead-of-eu-vote

Sky News has uncovered the first statistical evidence that investors are shifting billions of pounds out of British assets in light of the EU referendum.

Some £65bn either left the UK or was converted into other currencies in March and April - the fastest rate since the financial crisis in early 2009.

The figures, published by the Bank of England in its monthly register of banking statistics, represent the first evidence of capital flight from the UK - where money rapidly flows out of a country in response to concerns over economic instability.

They are consistent with the sharp falls in the pound over the period, which is regarded as a barometer of international fears about Brexit.

Filo25

BobQ wrote: »

Capital leaving the country?

http://news.sky.com/story/1708390/billions-of-pounds-leave-uk-ahead-of-eu-vote

You mean international finance isn't just powered by optimism and a can-do attitude?

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

Capital leaving the country?

http://news.sky.com/story/1708390/billions-of-pounds-leave-uk-ahead-of-eu-vote

the flow of foreign capital into the UK over the last few years is mortgaging our future and our children's
the effect has been to sell our successful businesses to foreigners, to artificially boast the pound making our exports uncompetitive, to build up foreign debts


so in the future all the profits/ dividends will flow overseas.


why ever do people think this is a good thing? : OK it allows us to live above our true means now but this will be paid for in the future.


I understand why the Thatcherites approve but am amazed the lefties find this a 'good thing'

Filo25

CLAPTON wrote: »

the flow of foreign capital into the UK over the last few years is mortgaging our future and our children's
the effect has been to sell our successful businesses to foreigners, to artificially boast the pound making our exports uncompetitive, to build up foreign debts


so in the future all the profits/ dividends will flow overseas.


why ever do people think this is a good thing? : OK it allows us to live above our true means now but this will be paid for in the future.


I understand why the Thatcherites approve but am amazed the lefties find this a 'good thing'

So you think Capital flight is a sign of global confidence in our bright post-Brexit future then Clapton?