If we vote for Brexit what happens

michaels

vivatifosi wrote: »

Apparently it crashed after the Cameron vs Farage debate. I didn't watch it. Goodness only knows what was said to mobilise enough voters to crash the website. Like you, I'm also unsure who this favours though.

Easy way to find out - if they find a way to reopen registration then you can be certain that that would favour remain....

mayonnaise

vivatifosi wrote: »

Apparently it crashed after the Cameron vs Farage debate. I didn't watch it. Goodness only knows what was said to mobilise enough voters to crash the website. Like you, I'm also unsure who this favours though.

I watched the debate (or what we call debate these days, where different parties don't actually debate anymore, but each get assigned half an hour Q&A with the audience). Trying to put my neutral hat on, I can't see anything that was said which would mobilise masses of voters.
It can only be a good thing, a higher turnout, a bigger democratic mandate for whatever the outcome may be.

gfplux

michaels wrote: »

There is probably a 40% chance of there being a recession if remain wins so it would seem foolish to rule it out if brexit wins.

However the timing is unclear because it is not as if anyhting will change on 24th June so any impact is likely to be spread over a period of several years and thus suppose underying growth is 2% and this is hit by 0.5% pa for 5 years it is still possible there woudl be no recession as in 2 Qs of below zero growth.

Good point michaels, the only immediate effect will be the value of the pound. Other changes will be longer term. Banks with EU passport to do business will have to make some location decisions that will not be immediate. Britain as a safe haven will not disappear overnight.
It will be a long slow slide in to obscurity.

gfplux

Conrad wrote: »

For many reasons it will trigger a great boom.


For 730 days you wont notice a thing anyway, French girls will still buy and download the Coldplay album, Waitrose will still stock Provence wines, Audi will still sell us cars.


It is very simple for us to do a trade deal, our rules are already aligned with the EU's and EVERYONE has a mutual interest in not disrupting trade.


Certain nations such as France sell us a heck of a lot (16.7% of their output) and have high unemployment and an upcoming election, NO CHANCE they will wish to harm trade.


On day 731 no one will notice any detrimental change, our boom will be well under way, deep Commonwealth links affording all sorts of leverage (look at a map of the ASEAN nations and Chinas strategic aims in Asia)

I assume that was said tongue in cheek.
During that time many things will be changing under the surface. It could be a little like subsidence. You don't notice it until your house falls down.
People will be making small but incremental decisions.
From the German family deciding NOT to holiday in Britain as they are not sure of the passport issues, to the Chairman of a Bank in New York deciding to expand the Frankfurt office rather than the one in London.
It will be all those little things that will do the damage.

gfplux

mayonnaise wrote: »

I watched the debate (or what we call debate these days, where different parties don't actually debate anymore, but each get assigned half an hour Q&A with the audience). Trying to put my neutral hat on, I can't see anything that was said which would mobilise masses of voters.
It can only be a good thing, a higher turnout, a bigger democratic mandate for whatever the outcome may be.

Agreed.
I only hope after the referendum, whatever the result, I will be proud to have voted alongside a HUGE turnout.
Democracy at its best.

Rinoa

Referendum? What referendum?

Manufacturing output smashes expectations to defy Brexit slowdown.

http://www.cityam.com/242853/manufacturing-output-smashes-expectations-to-defy-brexit-slowdown

EEF, the manufacturers' organisation said the data "backs up the feeling that there are no concrete signs that uncertainty associated with the upcoming referendum has had a major impact on manufacturing".
Jasper Lawler of CMC Markets said the markets responded well to the data: "The pound rose after data showed much stronger than expected UK industrial and manufacturing production in April. The much vaunted Brexit slowdown is looking more like a Brexceleration."

kabayiri

vivatifosi wrote: »

So many people were trying to register to vote, the site crashed just before registration was due to close:
...

It was the gateway which croaked.

These things are often combined role devices now doing things like load balancing and traffic routing.

I always thought the government bought the dearer ones? I remember stress testing one of these and it just took as much traffic as I could throw at it.

Perhaps in these days of austerity they have a man and his dog sitting there doing the job ... job creation if you will.

ruggedtoast

Generali wrote: »

Why is this a daft remain argument? This is a senior member of the body that you idiots are relying on to try to dig you out of the mud if you are stupid enough to quit the EU. And you now want to dismiss what he says.

Pretty much every independent person with a clue about how finance, business or the economy works is telling you that you're wrong.

If your doctor tells you to give up smoking and you think there might be an idiot in the room then you might wonder whether it's the person that didn't spend 7 years in med school.

Still you never know, you might be right. Meanwhile the CEO of JP Morgan is wrong, the head of the IMF is wrong, the head of the WTO is wrong, the chief economist of my work is wrong, the Fed is wrong, the BoE is wrong, the CBI is wrong, Citibank is wrong. You're right though.

Oh and the immigrants of course. Don't forget the immigrants.

Although I am not in favour of leaving at the moment, I do feel I need to point out that referencing a selection of people that have benefited hugely from a particular economic system, as recommending that system continue, is not especially surprising.

I personally care as little about the opinions of JP Morgan as it cares about Sure Start centres and young people having access to higher education.

A big problem for the leave side however is that is has failed to frame any credible predictions as to what will take the place of the EU when / if we leave.

According to the Clapto-Conrad UKRAP nonsense all will be sweetness and light in a glorious land of cricket playing, Royal adoring anglophiles the moment we leave. Europe will disappear altogether and we can return to the halcyon days of 3 day weeks, British Leyland and Cathy Come Home that they remember so fondly pre European Unification.

Naturally this isn't what they expect to happen, They expect their unfunded pensions to be paid in full, all their unfunded medical entitlements to continue, to be able to walk into a coffee shop and have someone serve them for £7 an hour, and their houses to still be worth 40 times what they paid for them. But they expect this to happen with the population falling by 20%

Personally I need a bit more than that to persuade me to buy in to what they think they are "offering".

Generali

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Although I am not in favour of leaving at the moment, I do feel I need to point out that referencing a selection of people that have benefited hugely from a particular economic system, as recommending that system continue, is not especially surprising.

I personally care as little about the opinions of JP Morgan as it cares about Sure Start centres and young people having access to higher education.

A big problem for the leave side however is that is has failed to frame any credible predictions as to what will take the place of the EU when / if we leave.

According to the Clapto-Conrad UKRAP nonsense all will be sweetness and light in a glorious land of cricket playing, Royal adoring anglophiles the moment we leave. Europe will disappear altogether and we can return to the halcyon days of 3 day weeks, British Leyland and Cathy Come Home that they remember so fondly pre European Unification.

Naturally this isn't what they expect to happen, They expect their unfunded pensions to be paid in full, all their unfunded medical entitlements to continue, to be able to walk into a coffee shop and have someone serve them for £7 an hour, and their houses to still be worth 40 times what they paid for them. But they expect this to happen with the population falling by 20%

Personally I need a bit more than that to persuade me to buy in to what they think they are "offering".

It's probably worth remembering that the capitalist system you hate so much has made the poor very much richer in both relative and absolute terms and extended lifespans by decades.

mayonnaise

Looks like the registration deadline was/will be extended.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36476176