If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

What sort of recession would a Brexit create?
“A technical recession.” Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, has warned that’s what we might get if the British people vote for Brexit on June 23. Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, concurs. Chancellor George Osborne has, unsurprisingly, shouted the warning from the rooftops. Many economists are more circumspect about using the “r” word. Yet very few analysts expect zero economic impact in the event of a Leave vote.

So what sort of recession might it be? Does it matter? Aren’t they all painful? Jobs are lost, incomes fall, resources stand idle. They all hurt. But it’s worth asking the question.

So what if the UK did go into recession in the wake of a Brexit vote? Would this be a supply shock or a demand shock or even an expectations correction? Should the Bank cut rates into negative territory in an attempt to spur spending? Should the Treasury slow the pace of fiscal consolidation? The Bank of England and the Treasury would obviously have to ask these questions. But the right policy would surely be to stimulate and see.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/exactly-what-sort-of-recession-would-a-brexit-create-the-answer-matters-a-lot-a7066041.html

Demand Shock - UK only ? , Plus Europe ?? Plus USA ???

mrginge

Generali wrote: »

So useless that you live in one of the richest countries the world has ever known with the freedom to do pretty much what you want as long as you don't upset anyone else.

Just how much better do you think your life can get?

Yes but that is all down to a combination of NATO, the EU and some very large international companies. That's what remain keep telling me.
We don't actually have any use for our government anymore. We simply can't cope without likes of JP Morgan flouting international law, making vast profits and then paying some of it back in fines.

Not that I'm not grateful.

Generali

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I think I'll trust the guy who has actually been First Sea Lord.

But ignore the economic advice of the head of the Bank of England, the IMF and the WTO (despite the fact that you are planning to have the WTO force the rest of the world to backstop Leave's trade plans, such as they are).

You agree with the expert that supports you and ignore the hundreds that do not.

TrickyTree83

Generali wrote: »

But ignore the economic advice of the head of the Bank of England, the IMF and the WTO (despite the fact that you are planning to have the WTO force the rest of the world to backstop Leave's trade plans, such as they are).

You agree with the expert that supports you and ignore the hundreds that do not.

No, I've absolutely listened to the economists that say it would be bad for the economy. You assume I'm voting to leave and think everything would be rosy, I fully accept there will be a initial shock, I fully accept there could be a recession. I don't agree with HM Treasury forecasting up to 2030 when they're unable to forecast growth and debt for the next quarter. None of these economists views are foregone conclusions, they are guesses. In the same way that they guessed about us puling out of the ERM and not joining the Euro being detrimental to our economy, we'll never know for sure if it was but we've done OK by not being in either haven't we.

setmefree2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I fully accept there could be a recession.

There will be a recession.

Any view on what type?

TrickyTree83

setmefree2 wrote: »

There will be a recession.

Any view on what type?

Oh really?

Can you direct message me what this Friday's euromillions numbers are please?

setmefree2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Oh really?

Yes.

If you vote Leave you should at least fully appreciate what you are doing.

No point in complaining afterwards that you had no idea what you were doing (because you had your head completely buried in the sand) and everyone lied to you.

No point in complaining afterwards that when the IMF, The WTO, The BOE. The FED, and Uncle Tom Cobley and all said the UK would go into recession - you didn't fully comprehend what that meant.

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

But ignore the economic advice of the head of the Bank of England, the IMF and the WTO (despite the fact that you are planning to have the WTO force the rest of the world to backstop Leave's trade plans, such as they are).

You agree with the expert that supports you and ignore the hundreds that do not.

no-one, other than the less intelligent 'remain' acolytes, expect the WTO to do anything except their job.

TrickyTree83

setmefree2 wrote: »

Yes. If you vote Leave you should at least fully appreciate what you are doing. No point in complaining afterwards that you had no idea what you were doing.

I fully appreciate that there could be a recession.

You were trying to tell me (and I guess everyone else reading this thread) that there will be, that it's a foregone conclusion.

"Mr Carney said his comments about a possible recession, made when he appeared before the Treasury Select Committee, were about being "straight and transparent" with the British people."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36295721

setmefree2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Oh really?

"While trade would continue, it could be on worse terms," said the WTO chief Roberto Azevedo.
"Most likely, it would cost more for the UK to trade with the same markets - therefore damaging the competitiveness of UK companies."
Britain gets preferential export terms for 60 per cent of the goods it sells abroad, which includes the 47 per cent of its exports that go to the EU and the 13 per cent that go to other countries with EU trade deals.
Azevedo said the implication is that UK exporters would risk having to pay up to £5.6bneach year in duty on their exports.

Asked how long such a process could take, he said: "It could be a few years, it could be decades. But our experience suggests that to expect smooth sailing and quick results would be a high-risk bet."

Seriously, you don't think "that" chaos will cause a recession ?

I'm interested in your reasoning.