If we vote for Brexit what happens

Filo25

Stuck £100 on at 4/1 which was obscenely generous, and another £100 on today, at this stage I think Brexit is more likely than not, so it makes no sense to me that its still priced as around a 30% chance.

I get that there might be a late swingback for the "no change" option, but I think Brexit will benefit from better turnout from its supporters on average.

TrickyTree83

Filo25 wrote: »

As a Remainer I wouldn't be crying myself to sleep over an outcome of EEA membership.

I do think a lot (not all by any means) of Brexit voters would feel hugely betrayed though.

Free movement of Labour is the issue driving a lot of the Brexit vote, as can be seen by the high ranking given to immigration as an issue in all the polling around it.

If it happens, I would expect it to actually strengthen support for UKIP rather than reduce their relevance.

I agree with everything you've said here.

I wish it wasn't the case and that we could come to a sensible conclusion to all of this which would be to the benefit of the nation as a whole. I would be equally as angry if we were to leave the EU almost purely on an immigration vote.

Conrad

Filo25 wrote: »

Could you please stop this "frightened into submission" rubbish Conrad, some of us in the Remain camp are more than capable of making up our own minds without paying much attention to what has been a dismal campaign

I'm afraid fear features much more heavily when listening to Bremain discourse. Brexit is a vision for change built on hope and self confidence. MASS immigration is a negative for many of us - a genuine fear not a manufactured one.


Classic example of casual Bremain fear mongering that is utterly fabricated;


1) Clegg, Caroline Lucas and the rest endlessly say 'Britain will be isolated, without influence, a small irrelevant island drifting off into the Atlantic pulling up the drawbridge'.


If this were true then you would find the other western independent nations would be isolated and without influence, draw bridges up, not having their own seats on the global panels and bodies, not involved in international affairs. They go out of their way to keep asserting this lack of potency and influence


Classic scare mongering that seems to fool certain people very easily, it's as if their brain is switched off. Over and again I see these people applauding this mindless assertion independent nations have no influence and lack any kind of dignity and self assuredness

Filo25

Oddly enough I am voting remain off the back of my own knowledge not a terrible campaign by both sides.

It never ceases to amaze me that in this campaign so many zealots can only see the faults in the campaign of the other side, and not the ones staring them in the face from the one they support.

I won't deny that the Brexit campaign has been more successful so far, but its hardly been short of fearmongering nonsense and outright lies either.

TrickyTree83

Conrad wrote: »

I'm afraid fear features much more heavily when listening to Bremain discourse. Brexit is a vision for change built on hope and self confidence. MASS immigration is a negative for many of us - a genuine fear not a manufactured one.


Classic example of casual Bremain fear mongering that is utterly fabricated;


1) Clegg, Caroline Lucas and the rest endlessly say 'Britain will be isolated, without influence, a small irrelevant island drifting off into the Atlantic pulling up the drawbridge'.


If this were true then you would find the other western independent nations would be isolated and without influence, draw bridges up, not having their own seats on the global panels and bodies, not involved in international affairs. They go out of their way to keep asserting this lack of potency and influence


Classic scare mongering that seems to fool certain people very easily, it's as if their brain is switched off. Over and again I see these people applauding this mindless assertion independent nations have no influence and lack any kind of dignity and self assuredness

Have to agree with that. The argument from these MPs for Remain has really let those backing Remain down.

We'll still be in NATO. We'll still be in the UN. We'll take our seat back at the WTO. The only thing we'll be leaving is the EU. It is a little more insular in that we refuse to share sovereignty with the EU, but that's it. I expect we'll continue co-operating with EU countries and on the world stage after a Brexit.

cells

I was leaning towards voting out my main thinking was that the UK is a big net contributor financially to the EU and that not having to pay over £10B (or whatever it is) net to the EU could cover most of the negatives. However someone on this thread suggested its quite possible the UK will exit but then have to join the EU market and still have to pay its contributions. Now I'm worried if that happens maybe we won't even get back the Thatcher rebate so the payment will go up a lot more which would be shooting ourselves in the foot. Back to square one of having no net strong position on a vote for a largely unknown.

ruggedtoast

Everything everyone was threatening Scotland with will be just as applicable if the UK votes to leave the (European) Union.

Being made an example of
Being seen to be punished even if there is reciprocal pain
Having to cope with having offended the bigger party
Being told that the bigger party will take their own sweet time in deciding what to do about us and no they don't care how urgent we find it

All of that. The only way anyone in their right mind should vote Leave is if they seriously want us to have NOTHING to do with Europe, either politically or economically.

There is no middle ground any more. It is far too late for that.

Sapphire

Conrad wrote: »

TBH I'm surprised people have seen through Camerons institutional backed relentless scare mongering. I thought the people were frankly not confident / intelligent enough to see through it, but it seems I might have been wrong.


Even those currently frightened into submission will look at our flag at the Brazil Olympics and suddenly feel a swell of additional pride that we're 'doin our thang' in the world

Yes – to me Cameron has appeared foolish and on the defensive ever since he returned from the 'negotiations' in Brussels. It's as if he knows he is wrong, is going against his own beliefs and is not being honest. He and many others like him do seem desperate. Usually, I find him quite persuasive, but to me it seems that for the first time his attempts at convincing many people are not working…

Throughout their history, the British people have always been quite bolshy, spirited and independently minded (look at all the groups that were active as far back as at the time of the Civil War!), and they don't like being ordered about. I too thought that a lot of that spirit had been drained out of the British into a kind of lumpen greyness. It appears not, I'm very pleased to say.

Brazil Olympics – can't wait for the scenario you describe. :j

TrickyTree83

cells wrote: »

I was leaning towards voting out my main thinking was that the UK is a big net contributor financially to the EU and that not having to pay over £10B (or whatever it is) net to the EU could cover most of the negatives. However someone on this thread suggested its quite possible the UK will exit but then have to join the EU market and still have to pay its contributions. Now I'm worried if that happens maybe we won't even get back the Thatcher rebate so the payment will go up a lot more which would be shooting ourselves in the foot. Back to square one of having no net strong position on a vote for a largely unknown.

Well that's not quite the case. For example Norway pays roughly the same amount as we do now per head of population, that's actually a Remain argument as why we shouldn't leave and then go into the EEA. They are a country of 5 million people, the size of Scotland. Hopefully that puts it into a bit of perspective for you. And to be quite frank, they do quite well out of it.

CLAPTON

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Everything everyone was threatening Scotland with will be just as applicable if the UK votes to leave the (European) Union.

Being made an example of
Being seen to be punished even if there is reciprocal pain
Having to cope with having offended the bigger party
Being told that the bigger party will take their own sweet time in deciding what to do about us and no they don't care how urgent we find it

All of that. The only way anyone in their right mind should vote Leave is if they seriously want us to have NOTHING to do with Europe, either politically or economically.

There is no middle ground any more. It is far too late for that.

Can you find a single reference from anyone in power that threatened Scotland if there was a YES vote?

remember we don't trade with Europe: we trade with individual companies who wish to make a profit.

all in all only total cowards and people without principles and without a moral compass would submit to threats and bullying