If we vote for Brexit what happens

TrickyTree83

gfplux wrote: »

We may see something like that after Brexit, who knows!
However the present spokesmen and women for The Brexit camp are clearly stating that they will reduce inward immigration from the 100's of thousands to 10's of thousands. That argument is gaining huge traction which might bring them victory. That will not be possible with free movement. Are you suggesting they will change their mind after they win and betray all those who voted for Brexit as it would lead to much lower immigration?

I would expect normal service to resume and a sense of pragmatism should return to the House of Commons. Sensible adult negotiations may well mean that free movement is just something we have to accept if we are to deal with the EU. But that does not mean there is no reason to leave the EU. That too would be misleading.

Edit: I would like to add, that is the very reason why I despise the debate currently being had between politicians which is being stoked by the media. It's turning into a one or two issue question and it is far from that. Delve a bit deeper into the University ran debates and the Parliamentary Committee meetings and you'll find that it's a much more colourful argument.

Conrad

Generali wrote: »

You have nobody offering you an EFTA agreement.

Of course the EU desperate for us to vote remain aren't going to offer us anything yet, but if we vote leave all this will change as all parties have a vested interest in not disrupting trade, confidence at a time when several member states have very high unemployment and elections looming.


I know Remain says the EU wont give us a deal but that would only harm them more, and immediately due to trade suffering whereas having to manage the excuse making for giving Britain a nice deal will be something they can cope with politically - but higher unemployment and failing trade and confidence loss they cannot cope so easily with


Imagine us in charge of our own waters along with EFTA members Iceland and Norway - further leveraged we will enjoy

Even with no trade deal we'll be ok;


Peter Lilley (remember him?) once calculated that the maximum average WTO-limited tariff the EU could impose was about 3%, whereas our EU membership fee, to allow access to the SM, was the equivalent of 7%. It's a no-brainer.

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

So you're going to vote Leave and then....fingers crossed and something to do with immigrants.

Good luck.

I want to choose my immigrants, just like I choose other things in a free market.

Today it might be Polish labourers; tomorrow it might be Indian IT specialists.

I'd argue that anybody should be able to apply for a vacant position in the UK, if they feel their skills match.

Conrad

setmefree2 wrote: »

OK - has anyone got any opinions on what "The DIY 2016 Recession" is going to look like?

Treasury forecasts predict the most optimistic outcome is a sterling fall of 12%, unemployment would rise by 520,000, average wages would fall by 2.8% and house prices would be hit by 10%.

Worst case scenario, modelled by the Treasury, we default to WTO membership conditions.In this scenario, after two years GDP would be 6% lower, up to 820,000 jobs could go, take-home pay would fall by 4%, house prices would fall by 18% and the pound would be 15% lower.

Opinions on what the recession is going to look like?

What new trade alliances have these models factored-in?


What Commonwealth alliance boost have they allowed for?


How much of a boost from re-acquiring our own fishing grounds has been pencilled in?


What leverage will we enjoy with ASEAN nations and China given the proximity of Commonwealth nations in Asia?


What is the boost out of the net £10bn saved in membership fees?


What have they factored-in in terms of the fact we wont be exposed to coughing up for future bailouts and EU failures?


What is the boost from locally tailored policy design?


What is the safe haven boost (the EU will be seen as less safe investment wise with us out)?


Have they allowed for a US-UK trade deal given both Clinton and Trump keep mentioning we're their greatest ally and biggest investor partners?


Falling pound boosts exports, was this allowed for?


And most importantly, if these are unbiased fact based assessments, tell me about the future of the pound and all the rest if we remain?



Martin Howe QC, one of Britain’s leading EU experts, who yesterday confirmed that, far from having to abandon the deals, “Britain would have existing trade deals in place” from the first day after Brexit.


The report says: “Both the EU and the member states are parties to the free trade agreement with the Republic of Korea, concluded in 2011.

“There would be no difficulty in the UK continuing to comply with the obligations of this FTA after Brexit and Korea on a reciprocal basis would have no difficulty continuing to apply these substantive provisions both to the UK and the EU. This step would not require any renegotiation.”



Mr Howe added that there was already a legal precedent for this.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

setmefree2 wrote: »

OK - has anyone got any opinions on what "The DIY 2016 Recession" is going to look like?

Treasury forecasts predict the most optimistic outcome is a sterling fall of 12%, unemployment would rise by 520,000, average wages would fall by 2.8% and house prices would be hit by 10%.

Worst case scenario, modelled by the Treasury, we default to WTO membership conditions.In this scenario, after two years GDP would be 6% lower, up to 820,000 jobs could go, take-home pay would fall by 4%, house prices would fall by 18% and the pound would be 15% lower.

Opinions on what the recession is going to look like?

You'd be talking the Great Recession of 2008 all over again.

Millions out of work, masses of people losing jobs, businesses, homes, and significantly higher costs and taxes for everyone as quality of life falls and stress rises.

TrickyTree83

Conrad wrote: »

What new trade alliances have these models factored-in?


What Commonwealth alliance boost have they allowed for?


How much of a boost from re-acquiring our own fishing grounds has been pencilled in?


What leverage will we enjoy with ASEAN nations and China given the proximity of Commonwealth nations in Asia?


What is the boost out of the net £10bn saved in membership fees?


What have they factored-in in terms of the fact we wont be exposed to coughing up for future bailouts and EU failures?


What is the boost from locally tailored policy design?


What is the safe haven boost (the EU will be seen as less safe investment wise with us out)?


Have they allowed for a US-UK trade deal given both Clinton and Trump keep mentioning we're their greatest ally and biggest investor partners?





Martin Howe QC, one of Britain’s leading EU experts, who yesterday confirmed that, far from having to abandon the deals, “Britain would have existing trade deals in place” from the first day after Brexit.


The report says: “Both the EU and the member states are parties to the free trade agreement with the Republic of Korea, concluded in 2011.

“There would be no difficulty in the UK continuing to comply with the obligations of this FTA after Brexit and Korea on a reciprocal basis would have no difficulty continuing to apply these substantive provisions both to the UK and the EU. This step would not require any renegotiation.”



Mr Howe added that there was already a legal precedent for this.

And interestingly on that note from Mr Howe QC, his report stating this was the same report on which George Osborne based his assertion that the UK would need to re-negotiate all of its trade deals via the EU.

How can George be correct when the author comes out and denies George has correctly used the information contained within it?

Who is wrong?

setmefree2

Conrad wrote: »

What new trade alliances have these models factored-in?

I'm just asking what the recession is going to look like on 24th June and for the next 12 months????

I'm past arguing about whether we should stay or go.

Anyone seen any good articles that don't use Treasury models???

Conrad

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Edit: I would like to add, that is the very reason why I despise the debate currently being had between politicians which is being stoked by the media. It's turning into a one or two issue question and it is far from that.

I've watched /heard just about every debate and interview and have seen the discussion ranging into dozens of areas, often quite bewildering really.


Even one area, migration is a always a multi faceted debate

setmefree2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

You'd be talking the Great Recession of 2008 all over again.

Millions out of work, masses of people losing jobs, businesses, homes, and significantly higher costs and taxes for everyone as quality of life falls and stress rises.

Have you seen anything that suggest how long it lasts???

mrginge

Does anyone know if the independent Bank of England has said what action they will take in the event of Brexit?
Surely they have a contingency in place?
Why are they so good at telling us what they *think* will happen, yet seem to go quiet about what they will actually do. I mean, unlike the leave campaign who are not in power, the Bank of England actually have some responsibility and ability to act to calm the economy massacre they have predicted.

Perhaps they have said and I've missed it. If so could someone point me in the direction as I'm keen to know what interest rates will be.