If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Bloomberg showing a poll that had Leave on 48% and Remain at 43 or 41%, rich suits in the studio sweating about the "Brexit Problem". Quite funny to watch actually.

I'm glad you think it's funny because it really isn't.

Recessions never are......

and it's never the rich suits that suffer....it's average Joes

setmefree2

Generali wrote: »

The fact, of course, is that the average person in the poorest 20% of British people has about the same income as the average person in China. The difference between the two of course is that the British person will also probably be receiving welfare payments on top, accruing retirement benefits and able to receive vast amounts of healthcare. Plus almost limitless education, massively subsidised, is available to the Briton.

Apparently that's not enough.

Well they'll be getting a lot less if we leave the EU. We have a massive current account deficit, massive public debts and massive personal debts - I can't see how this will end well if the Leavers win, as it's increasingly looking like they might.

Get Private Health Insurance and send your kids to Private Schools.

The Party's Over...... The Public Gets What The Public Wants (and what it deserves?).

Generali

setmefree2 wrote: »

Well they'll be getting a lot less if we leave the EU. We have a massive current account deficit, massive public debts and massive personal debts - I can't see how this will end well if the Leavers win, as it's increasingly looking like they might.

Get Private Health Insurance and send your kids to Private Schools.

The Party's Over...... The Public Gets What The Public Wants (and what it deserves?).

I've got a spare room and the weather's great for the most part.

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

The difficulty for Leave is that they aren't campaigning to be the next government. They can't say "After June 23 we will immediately do this followed by this, this and this." because after June 23 Cameron will still be PM and Osborne chancellor.

Even if they believe Cameron will resign as his position will be untenable, neither Johnson, Gove or Fox can assume who the next leader of the Conservative party will be. And of course the Leave side has people from other political parties who may have differing ideas of the best way forward after brexit.

There are also uncertainties of staying in the EU. Will we have a trade deal with the US? How many more eastern European countries will be allowed to join. Will the southern European countries have to be bailed out and how will that affect us etc..

Rinoa, there you have it, as in your words "
"And of course the Leave side has people from other political parties who may have differing ideas of the best way forward after Brexit"

So there are multiple choices for the way forward after Brexit. That's not my idea of a plan. It sound like they will make it up as they go along. Surely that is not what the Brexitears are voting for?

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

There is a clear lack of an economic plan for those regions in the UK which have undergone significant change.

It doesn't take a genius to work out that change can create uncertainty which gives rise to unrest.

So what was Team Remain's campaign? To talk about *national* average income drops, etc.

They haven't twigged that it's a regional issue.

What is the EU answer to regions in decline like South Wales? Fund art galleries and the like, whilst they pump 300bn Euros into Poland; a country which is seeing many of it's young go overseas.

Joined up thinking? I suspect not somehow.

It is extraordinary that lack of action, planning or spending by successive UK GOVERNMENTS are blame on the EU.

TrickyTree83

Generali wrote: »

So you're going to vote Leave and then....fingers crossed and something to do with immigrants.

Good luck.

It's as Martin Lewis said, there a risks on both sides. I'm not in the "fingers crossed and something to do with immigrants" group as you suggest. I've looked at the current agreement we have with the EU and what's good/what's bad. Then researched proposals from economists who favour Brexit to see what they say and what Parliamentary committees have been saying on the issue to get away from the headlines portrayed in the media. I believe I've got enough information now to say that we probably would be better off half out/half in if we can achieve it. But because of the way the government have put forward the referendum as just an in/out vote, to achieve what I believe is the best deal we'd need to leave.

I'd welcome any questions as to why I've come to this conclusion.

TrickyTree83

setmefree2 wrote: »

OK - has anyone got any opinions on what "The Self-Destruct 2016 Recession" is going to look like?

Treasury forecasts predict the most optimistic outcome is a sterling fall of 12%, unemployment would rise by 520,000, average wages would fall by 2.8% and house prices would be hit by 10%.

Worst case scenario, modelled by the Treasury, we default to WTO membership conditions.In this scenario, after two years GDP would be 6% lower, up to 820,000 jobs could go, take-home pay would fall by 4%, house prices would fall by 18% and the pound would be 15% lower.

Opinions on what the recession is going to look like?

I have a real problem with both campaigns using statistics like this to reinforce their arguments when they are misleading.

The worst case scenario as forecast by HM Treasury has as far as I know been that each household will be £4,300 worse off.

The same economists who back the Remain view have said this is quite extraordinary. It's predicting well into the future which is not normally the done thing since there's so many unknowns. It's also coming up with this figure by sharing GDP equally among households, the first time this metric has ever been used in this fashion. It also fails to say that it's actually £4,300 worse off that we would otherwise have been, not that we actually get poorer than we are right now.

gfplux

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I fully understand that leaving the EU is different to completely severing ties to the single market and the idea of free movement of people. I read what you said as rejecting the vote to invoke article 50.

If parliament then decided to retain access to the single market and as a consequence we needed to retain the ideal of free movement of people then so be it. As a Leave voter I'm not dead against the free movement of people or the single market as I am against the shackles around us as a nation as a full member of the EU. Only a proportion of our economy exports to the EU yet 100% of our economy is currently subject to their rules.

I can see that a significant number of leave voters would be opposed to free movement of people, but it does solve a number of issues raised by Remain and the economists they hold up as paragons of truth, as does access to the single market. I believe the freedom given to the rest of the economy would be a massive boon and the ability for us to sort out our own trade deals around the world.

If you look at the current state of the EU, Remain say we have a seat at the table and have a say. I agree, but we're 1 of 28 nations, I don't see that as being vastly different to an EFTA arrangement. Within EFTA we would have a veto on regulation (as Norway does and has exercised) so to me it seems like the best of both worlds. If we could negotiate EFTA with limits on the free movement of people that would be even better and for me would be my preferred option over a full break.

We may see something like that after Brexit, who knows!
However the present spokesmen and women for The Brexit camp are clearly stating that they will reduce inward immigration from the 100's of thousands to 10's of thousands. That argument is gaining huge traction which might bring them victory. That will not be possible with free movement. Are you suggesting they will change their mind after they win and betray all those who voted for Brexit as it would lead to much lower immigration?

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

It is extraordinary that lack of action, planning or spending by successive UK GOVERNMENTS are blame on the EU.

I would tend to agree, but when you fail to address the concerns of the ordinary voter they sometimes vent their frustration.

We have of course seen this before, in the Greek elections. Voting in Syriza was not going to solve things, but that's exactly what happened.

I do think the EU have missed a trick. They pumped hundreds of billions of Euros into Poland, and more into other new EU states, and yet didn't recognise the strains which migration of few million Eastern Europeans would have.

Wasn't this what an EU social cohesion policy was intended to address?

setmefree2

OK - has anyone got any opinions on what "The DIY 2016 Recession" is going to look like?

Treasury forecasts predict the most optimistic outcome is a sterling fall of 12%, unemployment would rise by 520,000, average wages would fall by 2.8% and house prices would be hit by 10%.

Worst case scenario, modelled by the Treasury, we default to WTO membership conditions.In this scenario, after two years GDP would be 6% lower, up to 820,000 jobs could go, take-home pay would fall by 4%, house prices would fall by 18% and the pound would be 15% lower.

Opinions on what the recession is going to look like?