If we vote for Brexit what happens

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

Team Remain keep telling everyone just how brilliant the EU is on every single facet of our lives, so why can't people see it?

Because the snake oil salesmen in the leave campaign are promising the moon on a stick knowing full well they can't deliver but not caring two hoots as they'll not have to deal with the consequences.

Crashy_Time

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Which is no doubt exactly why a piece appeared on the BBC this morning noting there's a snowballs chance in hell of MP's voting to leave the Single Market even if we vote Brexit.

They know full well how stuffed UK plc is without free movement of people and access to the Single Market.

They also know full well they'll all be out of office if we do leave and suffer the inevitable 'DIY Recession' that would cause - let alone the 'Austerity on Stilts' that would be the consequence if we actually left the single market and lost mass EU immigration.

EZ is going to break up anyway, best to get a points system in place before it does.

mayonnaise

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Because the snake oil salesmen in the leave campaign are promising the moon on a stick knowing full well they can't deliver but not caring two hoots as they'll not have to deal with the consequences.

You mean VAT on fuel won't be scrapped on the 24th? :eek:

kabayiri

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Because a lot of things people blame the EU for have nothing to do with the EU, and a lot of things people like about the EU it isn't given credit for.
...

Or maybe the EU is good for some people, and not for others.

I reckon you will see different perspectives when they look at the voting figures. But..it's a matter of conjecture at the moment.

We shall see in a few weeks time.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And I believe the loss of influence in rulemaking and current ability to veto all sorts of things from within the EU would result in significant economic harm to the UK with almost no benefit at all tot he rest of the economy.

The "shackles" thing promoted by Brexiteers is a pernicious myth that appears to have gained traction with the masses, but it is as most economists agree, absolute codswallop.

The EU is our biggest trading partner.

Trade to the EU has grown in cash terms over the last decade.

Trade outwith the EU has grown even more over the last decade.

Clearly we're not hamstrung by our membership of the EU any more than Germany (one of the World's most successful exporters) and I don't hear them complaining about the EU 'stifling trade' with the rest of the World.

Just the opposite in fact.

So you want to be able to veto things we wouldn't need to veto if we left the EU? Lets not kid ourselves that our 1 minister somehow counts for more than any of the other 27 ministers proposing legislation within the EU. This influence you talk about is exactly as it is in reality, 1 minister representing our interests in a group of 28 and growing. The influence you talk about will wain as time goes by and more nations join, and that is what is on offer from Remain.

You honestly believe that regulation over the environment, employment, taxation, domestic construction, and many more that we do not export (some you simply can't!) is not a shackle on tailoring our economy to the needs of business and people based in these islands? There is no need for some of these regulations. So I propose that your statement that it is a myth is incorrect, and your apparent grievance that it's gained traction with the masses and not yourself is due to ignorance regarding the situation we actually face as a country.

Fewer than one in ten British businesses trade with the EU, yet 100% of them must comply with thousands of EU laws on employment, waste management, environmental regulations, product registration, health and safety, etc. This is a massive burden to small businesses. All of this we have very little control/influence over because we're one voice in a crowd of many. Surely you can see this?

Whilst the EU may be our largest trading partner, due to geographic location I would add. Our trade with this bloc of countries has been in steady decline. This is a point acknowledged by the Remain side of the argument and there is plenty of literature from pro-EU sources to demonstrate this (I invite you to look for it). Leaving the EU doesn't mean we would no longer trade with these people. Politics doesn't drive trade, business drives trade. As some people on here have pointed out even if we were to revert to WTO rules, the CET applied by the EU will not impact us as severely as you may think. The example of currency exchange rates (because we use £) shows this to be true where exchange rates can experience shifts of up to 20%, yet exports remain largely unaffected.

German exports are doing well because the Euro is artificially depressed by the poorer countries as part of the bloc. As a consequence of that German purchasing power is reduced to that of the other countries in the Euro, but their exporters remain much more competitive around the world. So no, I wouldn't expect their government to complain as this helps the economy. I posted earlier on in this tread why this situation and the plight of newly joined members contributes to the EU being run for the benefit of the rich countries to the detriment of the poorer countries. More so Germany and France because they're in the Euro and basically control fiscal policy on the continent.

michaels

kabayiri wrote: »

..and yet Leave is polling neck and neck.

Team Remain keep telling everyone just how brilliant the EU is on every single facet of our lives, so why can't people see it?

So here I think project fear has shot itself in the foot - by claiming everything the leave camp say is wrong even when it is patently true they give the impression that they are only saying what makes their arguements stand up rather than the tructh. Thus the leave camp can easily dismiss everything reman say with 'well they would say that, after all they have clearly lied about being able to control immigration etc'

Crashy_Time

Bloomberg showing a poll that had Leave on 48% and Remain at 43 or 41%, rich suits in the studio sweating about the "Brexit Problem". Quite funny to watch actually.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

maybe the EU is good for some people, and not for others.

I think that is true.

However I also genuinely believe a pretty big section of the people who don't think it's good for them have been deliberately misled by a thoroughly deceitful Brexit campaign.

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I think that is true.

However I also genuinely believe a pretty big section of the people who don't think it's good for them have been deliberately misled by a thoroughly deceitful Brexit campaign.

Given that research shows that the lowest paid that have lost the most from immigration have lost about 5% of their wages will have had most of that made up by increased welfare in most cases, the complaints about financial losses are probably hugely overstated.

TBH I think a lot of the Leave campaign comes down to poorer people not having the life they aspire to and looking to blame someone else for it. Leave is showing them that they can blame the immigrants or the EU elite for that.

The fact, of course, is that the average person in the poorest 20% of British people has about the same income as the average person in China. The difference between the two of course is that the British person will also probably be receiving welfare payments on top, accruing retirement benefits and able to receive vast amounts of healthcare. Plus almost limitless education, massively subsidised, is available to the Briton.

Apparently that's not enough.

tommysaver

Leave now winning in 'the poll of polls'

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/


Things about to get bumpy. My eyes are like a hawks on the betting front.