If we vote for Brexit what happens

kabayiri

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

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Remain can't win the immigration argument, if you dislike immigration you're voting out, so best just focus on the economic one.
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In the Jennings interview he referred to a 20 point gap between voting patterns in London and East of England.

Arguably, East of England should have been the biggest gainer from the access of a large labour force willing to work for low wages. It's a region which has seen large numbers of newcomers certainly.

If voters there are not convinced then it is questionable if they are seeing the economic benefits.

Where is the evidence that government is willing to invest in infrastructure in that region *before* large numbers of new arrivals create additional demands?

Is this immigration being done on the cheap?

A third of the EU budget goes to their social cohesion policy fund. A third of a trillion Euros in the current plan.

The biggest benefactor is Poland. If the Poles are moving in large numbers to a place like East of England then shouldn't it be the biggest benefactor ?

kabayiri

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

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There isn't a single main leave party for the Brexiteers to coalesce around after the referendum should they lose. Which is very different to Scotland's referendum and the SNP.
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Do you not think some Tories look at the large UKIP voting numbers in parts of the North East as tempting low hanging fruit?

A push to move the Tories to the right could pick up these voters. What are Labour going to do? Nothing! Without Scotland they are a shadow.

I could easily see right wing politics growing across Europe, not just here. Poland and Hungary now have right of centre politicians who are openly challenging the EU on issues of such as legal systems.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

Arguably, East of England should have been the biggest gainer from the access of a large labour force willing to work for low wages. It's a region which has seen large numbers of newcomers certainly.

If voters there are not convinced then it is questionable if they are seeing the economic benefits.

And yet as millions of native born people in the East of England are not unemployed clearly there is work there needing to be done by someone.

If it wasn't the Poles and other Europeans it would be the Welsh or Irish or Northern English.... Same problems, different accents, which clearly is the main problem for many.

Well at least it would be if those form elsewhere in the UK wanted the jobs, which clearly they don't, and that's no surprise given we pay people in this country to stay where the work isn't and not move to where the work is.

So what are the choices?

- Ramp up wages to attract people - and ramp up the costs of British made goods or products to uncompetitive levels to pay for those wages -promptly followed by sales of their products falling off a cliff and mass layoffs and business failure.

- Move all these employment, wealth and tax generating businesses away from the East of England so the locals can 'regain their community'.... Sounds nice... But then how do we pay for all those services without the tax base?

- Be honest with the locals and explain that without immigrant staffing the businesses will close, the tax base will fall, and the £20 BILLION a decade subsidy they give to the native born will be lost so services and benefits will be cut.

But honesty appears to have fallen out of fashion in UK politics, it's been replaced with truthiness, so fat chance of that happening.

Where is the evidence that government is willing to invest in infrastructure in that region *before* large numbers of new arrivals create additional demands?

Is this immigration being done on the cheap?

Of course it is being done on the cheap.

The massive net subsidy that EU immigrants provide to the UK is being spent propping up the unsustainable benefits and services structure that older UK citizens have voted to give themselves.

The truly laughable part is those same people then have the cheek to complain about immigrants paying their way for them.

We have become a nation of sad, moaning, ingrates.

TrickyTree83

kabayiri wrote: »

Radio 5 interview with Dr Will Jennings tonight. He has looked at polls to determine possible voting patterns by region amongst other things.

In summary :
region in economic growth (eg London) => Remain
region in economic stagnation/decline => Leave

I still suspect this referendum is as much an anti-establishment / malcontent test. The above only reaffirms this.

Is this only going to grow as London becomes richer and the North East becomes poorer?

That doesn't look like anti-establishment to me.

It looks like the rest of the UK doesn't think like "I'm alright jack".

mayonnaise

kabayiri wrote: »

Radio 5 interview with Dr Will Jennings tonight. He has looked at polls to determine possible voting patterns by region amongst other things.

In summary :
region in economic growth (eg London) => Remain
region in economic stagnation/decline => Leave

So in summary, the economically productive regions lean towards remain. I know it's not very nice of me, but in case of a brexit, I'm already looking forward to the squealing of the hoi polloi when they start realising they killed the golden goose.

kabayiri

mayonnaise wrote: »

So in summary, the economically productive regions lean towards remain. I know it's not very nice of me, but in case of a brexit, I'm already looking forward to the squealing of the hoi polloi when they start realising they killed the golden goose.

There is a clear lack of an economic plan for those regions in the UK which have undergone significant change.

It doesn't take a genius to work out that change can create uncertainty which gives rise to unrest.

So what was Team Remain's campaign? To talk about *national* average income drops, etc.

They haven't twigged that it's a regional issue.

What is the EU answer to regions in decline like South Wales? Fund art galleries and the like, whilst they pump 300bn Euros into Poland; a country which is seeing many of it's young go overseas.

Joined up thinking? I suspect not somehow.

Generali

kabayiri wrote: »

There is a clear lack of an economic plan for those regions in the UK which have undergone significant change.

It doesn't take a genius to work out that change can create uncertainty which gives rise to unrest.

So what was Team Remain's campaign? To talk about *national* average income drops, etc.

They haven't twigged that it's a regional issue.

What is the EU answer to regions in decline like South Wales? Fund art galleries and the like, whilst they pump 300bn Euros into Poland; a country which is seeing many of it's young go overseas.

Joined up thinking? I suspect not somehow.

The trouble places like South Wales have is that the world's economy has left them behind. If it wasn't for the welfare state the place would be empty.

kabayiri

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

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Of course it is being done on the cheap.

The massive net subsidy that EU immigrants provide to the UK is being spent propping up the unsustainable benefits and services structure that older UK citizens have voted to give themselves.
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People don't turn down free money Hamish.

It's governments which spend the money. You try cutting off those benefits as a politician and see how long you last in office.

Oh, and £20bn gain over a decade is not a massive subsidy. 300bn Euros pumped into Poland in a decade is a massive subsidy. We just need to recalibrate our massive scale a bit

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

The trouble places like South Wales have is that the world's economy has left them behind. If it wasn't for the welfare state the place would be empty.

Go to a presentation hosted by educators/politicos in somewhere like South Wales and ask them about the future for the young.

They will talk about the 'digital economy', or that other horse doodoo 'future jobs we haven't even imagined'. The future of "educational strategists" in South Wales is at least one growth area.

Perhaps they should be honest and give everyone a free ticket to London Euston and a map of the underground.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

People don't turn down free money Hamish.

It's governments which spend the money. You try cutting off those benefits as a politician and see how long you last in office.

Which is no doubt exactly why a piece appeared on the BBC this morning noting there's a snowballs chance in hell of MP's voting to leave the Single Market even if we vote Brexit.

They know full well how stuffed UK plc is without free movement of people and access to the Single Market.

They also know full well they'll all be out of office if we do leave and suffer the inevitable 'DIY Recession' that would cause - let alone the 'Austerity on Stilts' that would be the consequence if we actually left the single market and lost mass EU immigration.