If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

average WTO tariffs dont matter one bit what matters is the tariffs on what the UK exports. what are the tarriffs on the uk major exportS?

also its about future businesses deciding where to set up. Even if the tariff is just 4% why set up a car engine plant in the midlands and pay 4% to export to the EU when you can set up the plant in German/Poland/France and not pay the 4%

There may also be the potential/risk for multiple tariffs. eg engine parts made in Germany exported to the uk get a tarriff then they are assembled in the midlands and exported to France getting another tarriff.

but they will know that the UK exchange rate will fall at least 10 to 20% or even more

so business will flock here with a net export gain of 6 to 16% or even more.
no brainer

Rinoa

BobQ wrote: »

There was no mention of net migration it was about the numbers of immigrants.

I didn't see the interview but he has previously stated leaving the EU could bring net migration down to the tens of thousands. If he didn't say net, that's what he meant, possibly presuming that immigration figures are usually referred to in net terms.

Rinoa

cells wrote: »

average WTO tariffs dont matter one bit what matters is the tariffs on what the UK exports. what are the tarriffs on the uk major exportS?

Well, the head honcho of the WTO himself has kindly provided us with the exact figure. What do you reckon, £20Bn, £30Bn, £40Bn?

Listen to project fear and you'd almost believe it could cost British Exporters £50Bn every year.

I have to admit to being a little surprised that the actual figure is around £5.5Bn. Far less than we currently pay to be in the EU.

kabayiri

Radio 5 interview with Dr Will Jennings tonight. He has looked at polls to determine possible voting patterns by region amongst other things.

In summary :
region in economic growth (eg London) => Remain
region in economic stagnation/decline => Leave

I still suspect this referendum is as much an anti-establishment / malcontent test. The above only reaffirms this.

Is this only going to grow as London becomes richer and the North East becomes poorer?

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

Radio 5 interview with Dr Will Jennings tonight. He has looked at polls to determine possible voting patterns by region amongst other things.

In summary :
region in economic growth (eg London) => Remain
region in economic stagnation/decline => Leave

I still suspect this referendum is as much an anti-establishment / malcontent test. The above only reaffirms this.

Is this only going to grow as London becomes richer and the North East becomes poorer?

Whatever it is Remain need to up their game, and pretty quickly. The immigration angle seems to be cutting through.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 40m40 minutes ago EU referendum poll:

Remain: 41% (+3)

Leave: 43% (+2)

(via TNS, online / 19 - 23 May)

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 40m40 minutes ago EU refernedum poll:

Remain: 41% (-)

Leave: 45% (+4)

(via YouGov) Chgs. from 30 - 31 May.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Whatever it is Remain need to up their game, and pretty quickly. The immigration angle seems to be cutting through.

I'm not sure it's a case of anyone upping their game. If the British people want out of the EU then that's how they'll vote.

In many ways that's the biggest problem with the EU; the tendency for the Powers That Be to take a paternalistic approach to people and assume that while the hoi poloi can have an opinion it probably shouldn't be taken too seriously.

With the polls as they are my best guess is that Remain will still win. I think Leave needs to be further ahead than they are in order to win it.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Remain need to up their game, and pretty quickly. The immigration angle seems to be cutting through.

Other parties could be doing a lot more.

Remain need to show a united front and actively campaign together to demonstrate this is not a party political or protest vote issue.

Labour appear to have been off on holiday, Sturgeon and the SNP have been conspicuous by their absence, and the Lib Dems have tried a bit but....

Regardless, there are only two real issues to campaign on in this one, immigration and the economy.

Remain can't win the immigration argument, if you dislike immigration you're voting out, so best just focus on the economic one.

Sturgeon didn't help by rubbishing the very real economic concerns and warnings all the experts had about Brexit and trying to dismiss it as 'project fear', and yes we all know why, she didn't want to acknowledge the very same experts warnings about iScotland were valid.

But it's counterproductive nonetheless.

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Other parties could be doing a lot more.

Remain need to show a united front and actively campaign together to demonstrate this is not a party political or protest vote issue.

Labour appear to have been off on holiday, Sturgeon and the SNP have been conspicuous by their absence, and the Lib Dems have tried a bit but....

I suspect that Labour and the SNP saw what happened to Lib Dem support after they got into bed with the Tories and are scared that the same thing will happen to them. In addition I suspect that Labour are quite enjoying watching the Tories at each other's throats.

Regardless, there are only two real issues to campaign on in this one, immigration and the economy.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Sturgeon didn't help by rubbishing the very real economic concerns and warnings all the experts had about Brexit and trying to dismiss it as 'project fear', and yes we all know why, she didn't want to acknowledge the very same experts warnings about iScotland were valid.

But it's counterproductive nonetheless.

The SNP doesn't care about the economy of the UK, anything at any cost to Scots or Britons is fair game as long as it moves Scotland towards independence. I think it's missing the point to look at the SNP's actions through any kind of normal lens.

Most parties want what's best for Britain as that's how they prosper: people that feel the country is doing well vote for the status quo. The status quo is exactly what the SNP doesn't want.

michaels

Generali wrote: »

I suspect that Labour and the SNP saw what happened to Lib Dem support after they got into bed with the Tories and are scared that the same thing will happen to them. In addition I suspect that Labour are quite enjoying watching the Tories at each other's throats.

Regardless, there are only two real issues to campaign on in this one, immigration and the economy.
The SNP doesn't care about the economy of the UK, anything at any cost to Scots or Britons is fair game as long as it moves Scotland towards independence. I think it's missing the point to look at the SNP's actions through any kind of normal lens.

Most parties want what's best for Britain as that's how they prosper: people that feel the country is doing well vote for the status quo. The status quo is exactly what the SNP doesn't want.

I think labour also worry about this effect blaming it for their scottish collapse following the indy ref. Given the polling perhaps we will see some joint platform panic announcements on immigration prior to the vote more than anything else to give the waverers something to pin their doubts on when plumping for the status quo.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

michaels wrote: »

I think labour also worry about this effect blaming it for their scottish collapse following the indy ref. .

In this case however it's a very different scenario.

The Tories have taken the lead on both the leave campaign and the remain campaign. UKIP have been marginalised. Some Labour figures are prominent 'leavers'.

There isn't a single main leave party for the Brexiteers to coalesce around after the referendum should they lose. Which is very different to Scotland's referendum and the SNP.

I honestly think Labour, SNP, etc, are just sitting on the sidelines for shallow short term political gain. After Labour's thumping in the GE and the Tory Scottish resurgence putting them in a stronger place now than the SNP were just before 2007, both parties have a lot to gain from Tory factional warfare.

It's a dangerous game to play though.