If we vote for Brexit what happens

Rinoa

gfplux wrote: »

Conrad, we are on opposite sides of the argument but I was glad to see you are trying to get the leave campaign to put a proper argument together.
However up to now the leave campaign only have a business plan of hot air.
No business plan can be taken seriously when it has so much waffle and no facts. The plan is a list of what might be achieved but with no prior knowledge, no preliminary talks, full of guesswork and puffed up confidence.
You perhaps and many others on this forum may have been in business and understand how a poor business plan gets shown the door.
No decision that puts our future and the future of our children on the line based on this plan can and should be taken seriously.

The difficulty for Leave is that they aren't campaigning to be the next government. They can't say "After June 23 we will immediately do this followed by this, this and this." because after June 23 Cameron will still be PM and Osborne chancellor.

Even if they believe Cameron will resign as his position will be untenable, neither Johnson, Gove or Fox can assume who the next leader of the Conservative party will be. And of course the Leave side has people from other political parties who may have differing ideas of the best way forward after brexit.

There are also uncertainties of staying in the EU. Will we have a trade deal with the US? How many more eastern European countries will be allowed to join. Will the southern European countries have to be bailed out and how will that affect us etc..

TrickyTree83

Rinoa wrote: »

The difficulty for Leave is that they aren't campaigning to be the next government. They can't say "After June 23 we will immediately do this followed by this, this and this." because after June 23 Cameron will still be PM and Osborne chancellor.

Even if they believe Cameron will resign as his position will be untenable, neither Johnson, Gove or Fox can assume who the next leader of the Conservative party will be. And of course the Leave side has people from other political parties who may have differing ideas of the best way forward after brexit.

There are also uncertainties of staying in the EU. Will we have a trade deal with the US? How many more eastern European countries will be allowed to join. Will the southern European countries have to be bailed out and how will that affect us etc..

Yep.

Remain conveniently forget that the government of the day - if it were responsible - ought to have produced plans for both scenarios.

Offering a referendum with no plan for one of the options is completely irresponsible despite what they themselves might think, the electorate may not agree with them. Then what happens, which is as I understand the gripe of many an undecided and some Remain voters.

It's a good question to ask and I don't think any of the possible answers to it are acceptable. My own personal opinion is that they've attempted to engineer the situation to obtain the outcome they want.

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

Conrad, we are on opposite sides of the argument but I was glad to see you are trying to get the leave campaign to put a proper argument together.
However up to now the leave campaign only have a business plan of hot air.
No business plan can be taken seriously when it has so much waffle and no facts. The plan is a list of what might be achieved but with no prior knowledge, no preliminary talks, full of guesswork and puffed up confidence.
You perhaps and many others on this forum may have been in business and understand how a poor business plan gets shown the door.
No decision that puts our future and the future of our children on the line based on this plan can and should be taken seriously.

The main propaganda strength of the 'remain' is the that the fantasy of no change in the future : this is clearly wrong but there is no demand for a future business plan.
What's the 'remain' business plan for dealing with a new wage of immigrants this summer or the business plan for dealing with EU unemployment or the business plan for dealing with Greece or the rise of various right wing parties or of dealing with TTIP?

The future is uncertain whatever is done. If we brexit then we can deal with the uncertainty as we see fit: if we remain we have to rely of the EU28 who clearly do not want to address these difficult issues.

mwpt

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Yep.

Remain conveniently forget that the government of the day - if it were responsible - ought to have produced plans for both scenarios.

Offering a referendum with no plan for one of the options is completely irresponsible despite what they themselves might think, the electorate may not agree with them. Then what happens, which is as I understand the gripe of many an undecided and some Remain voters.

It's a good question to ask and I don't think any of the possible answers to it are acceptable. My own personal opinion is that they've attempted to engineer the situation to obtain the outcome they want.

Yes, of course they have. Welcome to democracy.

BobQ

lisyloo wrote: »

Genuine question - what does visa system mean?
Does that mean you have to pay £15 and get it at the airport (like we do in Egypt) or does that mean every individual gas to apply and every one is vetted individually.

For EU going to Turkey you have to apply for an e-visa in advance like we do to Australia. There are some exceptions if the visit is to a tourist area for tourism. Turkish nations need to apply to a UK consulate beforehand.

BobQ

Rinoa wrote: »

The difficulty for Leave is that they aren't campaigning to be the next government. They can't say "After June 23 we will immediately do this followed by this, this and this." because after June 23 Cameron will still be PM and Osborne chancellor.

Even if they believe Cameron will resign as his position will be untenable, neither Johnson, Gove or Fox can assume who the next leader of the Conservative party will be. And of course the Leave side has people from other political parties who may have differing ideas of the best way forward after brexit.

Realistically this has never stopped politicians making promises in the past. Gove has just promised to reduce immigration to 10000 a year. Is he lying?

There are also uncertainties of staying in the EU. Will we have a trade deal with the US? How many more eastern European countries will be allowed to join. Will the southern European countries have to be bailed out and how will that affect us etc..

Leave is arguing that we can manage without trade deals. So why does it matter?

TTIP is interesting. Gove and BoJo are whole heartedly supporting the deal and did so before EU public opinion forced the change excluding national healthcare systems from it. The EU is objecting to its current draft for good reasons. Why is it that Leave thinks standing up for EU interests is wrong but argues UK should be arguing for our interests on the world stage?

Accessions need to be considered on their merits. But I do think we need to reform Freedom of Movement before they continue. It still requires all nations to agree.

Generali

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

My own personal opinion is that they've attempted to engineer the situation to obtain the outcome they want.

Yes indeed, it's called a political process.

If you wanted a Brexitier as a PM you should have got more people to vote UKIP or whatever.

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

The difficulty for Leave is that they aren't campaigning to be the next government. They can't say "After June 23 we will immediately do this followed by this, this and this." because after June 23 Cameron will still be PM and Osborne chancellor.

Even if they believe Cameron will resign as his position will be untenable, neither Johnson, Gove or Fox can assume who the next leader of the Conservative party will be. And of course the Leave side has people from other political parties who may have differing ideas of the best way forward after brexit.

There are also uncertainties of staying in the EU. Will we have a trade deal with the US? How many more eastern European countries will be allowed to join. Will the southern European countries have to be bailed out and how will that affect us etc..

Thank you Rinoa for making the case for stay. You are quite right to point out the chaos that Brexit will bring just in the Government. Have you thought how this chaos will effect you, me and the rest of the world?

By the way your last paragraph about the EU uncertainties....correct but that is the known, known. As Donald Rumsfeld said,
"There are Known knowns
There are things we know,
We also know there are Known unknowns."

I say...

Beware the Unknown knowns

gfplux

If the Brexit argument was a Business plan.
How much are you personally prepared to invest?
£5
£100
"A lot more"
"my future"
"My child's future"
"My Granchilds future"

You are being asked to put your money where your mouth is.

If the Brexit argument was a business plan
How much would I invest.
A BIG FAT ZERO

Rinoa

BobQ wrote: »

Realistically this has never stopped politicians making promises in the past. Gove has just promised to reduce immigration to 10000 a year. Is he lying?



Leave is arguing that we can manage without trade deals. So why does it matter?

TTIP is interesting. Gove and BoJo are whole heartedly supporting the deal and did so before EU public opinion forced the change excluding national healthcare systems from it. The EU is objecting to its current draft for good reasons. Why is it that Leave thinks standing up for EU interests is wrong but argues UK should be arguing for our interests on the world stage?

Accessions need to be considered on their merits. But I do think we need to reform Freedom of Movement before they continue. It still requires all nations to agree.

I'm not aware of Michael Gove stating he will reduce immigration to 10,000 per year.

No, to me trade deals don't matter that much after Brexit. But if we remain in the EU any new trade deals will be a compromise between the 28 nations and not necessarily what is in the interests of the UK. EU interests are not always UK interests.