If we vote for Brexit what happens

gfplux

mwpt wrote: »

I don't know if Amazon pocket the difference or pay the 20% VAT to the UK, but my latest order shows 20% VAT. The item was "Sold by: Amazon EU S.a.r.L."

So there we have it, another untruth about the EU put to the sword.
Amazon pay the UK rate of vat (20%) on goods delivered to the UK.

You KNOW they don't pocket the difference otherwise the exit campaigners would be all over it like a rash.

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

So there we have it, another untruth about the EU put to the sword.
Amazon pay the UK rate of vat (20%) on goods delivered to the UK.

You KNOW they don't pocket the difference otherwise the exit campaigners would be all over it like a rash.

so basically you are saying it is a non story :

TrickyTree83

mwpt wrote: »

I'm sorry if I'm being dim, and I admit I skimmed the article, but where does it say that membership of the EU has been harmful to the new eastern european members? I'm also trying to find the part that shows how they initially borrowed their way to growth but again, very much skimmed it. Perhaps you could quote directly. Or even, post some graphs showing some examples of eastern european countries with lower GDP than prior to joining the EU.

After all, you guys made the claim that joining has been harmful to them.

I can't force you to read it and come up with your own opinion.

I've read it and interpreted the graphs, which to be honest in my opinion basically all say the same thing for each country with some slight deviations be it in available credit, current account surplus, consumption or industrial output.

I doubt there will be any example at this moment in history of lower GDP than before they joined since populations grow and business and trade grows in spite of policy in almost all circumstances. The scenario you're asking for evidence of is near constant recession. What I'm arguing for and what the article I posted a link to argues for is that the EU is not the force for economic prosperity it purports itself to be. Industries get destroyed as a result of its policies, you only need to look at the UK's fishing industry for a real life example of that closer to home. I've also heard anecdotally as you point out from citizens of these Eastern European countries that similar stories have been played out in their home countries. You asked for evidence of this which I've done my best to find for you.

I'll bullet point some of my observations:

- In all of the example countries the availability of credit pre-2008 fueled GDP growth, construction, industrial output and consumption. Since the crash it has flat-lined.

- Now that they are struggling the demographic black hole in their working age people both skilled and unskilled will come to serve as a barrier to growth in the future. It appears that these people have abandoned the situation in these countries in search of greener pastures, and no one would blame them for doing so, I would too. But within the EU, because of the policies of the EU it makes other member states richer and better off at the expense of these countries. In some circumstances that very migration can cause problems in the destination countries as some believe it does within the UK.

- It seems to me quite clear looking at the economic and demographic information available for these countries that they share a similar fate to those of the Mediterranean countries that we see at the moment. Because of the lack of industrial and construction output, the drop in consumption all points to (in my opinion) an assumed downward trend in jobs. So those young people who are not yet of working age in these countries as well as the Southern European countries will also face the need to emigrate in order to carve out a living for themselves. On the back of this I would ask you this question: If there are jobs in the UK and these people emigrate here will they be competing for jobs in our economy with UK citizens?

- The state of these countries as well as the Southern European countries would say to me that the EU is very much ran for the rich countries within it. Far from dragging these poorer countries up with them they are in fact draining these countries of valuable labour and skills they would need to pull themselves out of the predicament they find themselves in. How is that a good ideal? Do we want to be one of that club since we're one of the big 3 economies?

With regards to the UK, if you're big business, a major employer, of course you would be in favour of tapping into these labour markets. It's amazing! All of this cheap labour with higher skills than that which we could obtain with the minimum wage within the UK! Fantastic! Also, again it's fantastic for big business that they can attract the brightest and best from across the EU from these countries. But at what cost to these countries and the people that remain in them?

TrickyTree83

BobQ wrote: »

I will make a further announcement in due course to Parliament. I have got to visit the Queen now (she is really mad with me that the SNP has already called for an independence referendum to sever the Union).

I hate that the Remain side take it as read that the Scottish people would vote for independence after a vote to leave the EU.

1) Due to the amount of time it would take to dis-entangle the Scots with the union it would take longer than concluding leaving the EU. The negotiation regarding UK assets vs Scottish assets would be protracted I would imagine. There is no Article 50 for the union of the United Kingdom. It would need to be done from scratch. As a result if they were to re-apply to join the EU they would have to take the Euro as all new nations joining the bloc have to do.

2) The Scottish people would clearly take heed of the volatility in the price of oil which was pointed out in the original referendum as well as the contribution of the Barnett formula and the seizure of UK assets and re-location of national industry and contracts in the event of a breakup.

3) With the above taken into account it would seem common sense to suggest that things the Scottish people currently enjoy and take for granted, certain employment, free prescriptions, free university tuition would be under threat if they were to strike out on their own. The economy wouldn't be there to subsidise these social programs.

4) An independent Scotland would as has been conceded by the SNP have to take its share of the national debt probably according to population. We all in reality accept that the UK economy is biased towards London and the South East of England, it's a common complaint. With that in mind their economy would be taking on a large burden from year 0 as well as damaging their economy, losing assets, losing government contracts and losing jobs as a consequence.

With all of this in mind only nationalist fervour would contribute to a vote for independence. My own opinion is that the Scottish people are not stupid - far from it. The benefits of continued union within the United Kingdom far outweigh the benefits of remaining in the EU. Especially when they enjoy special status within the United Kingdom where circa 5 million voters are represented by 56 MP's in the house of commons, yet circa 4 million voters from England and Wales are represented by 1 UKIP MP. And the SNP get the votes by saying they don't have a voice in Westminster? Fantasy.

.string.

A good summary TT83.

I would add, being of the remain persuasion, that the UK leaving a favoured place in a common market called the EU about 10 times it's size would be in deep doodah , and Scotland, subsequently leaving an even more favoured place in a common market called the UK about 10 times it's size, would be in even greater doodah. Not an attractive prospect.

CLAPTON

.string. wrote: »

A good summary TT83.

I would add, being of the remain persuasion, that the UK leaving a favoured place in a common market called the EU about 10 times it's size would be in deep doodah , and Scotland, subsequently leaving an even more favoured place in a common market called the UK about 10 times it's size, would be in even greater doodah. Not an attractive prospect.

I'm not sure that 'size' alone is sufficient to build a case for either joining, staying or leaving.
one can think Soviet union or Yugoslavia as example of size or places like NZ, Aus, S Korea as example of relatively small places.

Scotland would be in trouble if it left the UK because it is heavily subsidised : In the EU however, the UK is a net contributor

.string.

CLAPTON wrote: »

I'm not sure that 'size' alone is sufficient to build a case for either joining, staying or leaving.
one can think Soviet union or Yugoslavia as example of size or places like NZ, Aus, S Korea as example of relatively small places.

Scotland would be in trouble if it left the UK because it is heavily subsidised : In the EU however, the UK is a net contributor

I would agree with you there in principle, it depends on the fundamental economics. Size does have an effect on relative negotiating leverage though. It also has an effect on economic leverage with other trading blocks, the EU offering access to its huge market in return for reciprocal trading benefits and the same vis-a-vis the UK to a lesser extent with (Jokey example) British Embassies promoting Scottish Whisky instead of exclusively English Hooch.

Your last point is true, neglecting the added benefits of exchange of trade that stems from a favoured relationship.

CLAPTON

.string. wrote: »

I would agree with you there in principle, it depends on the fundamental economics. Size does have an effect on relative negotiating leverage though. It also has an effect on economic leverage with other trading blocks, the EU offering access to its huge market in return for reciprocal trading benefits and the same vis-a-vis the UK to a lesser extent with (Jokey example) British Embassies promoting Scottish Whisky instead of exclusively English Hooch.

Your last point is true, neglecting the added benefits of exchange of trade that stems from a favoured relationship.

Is there any evidence that the EU has more trading relationships than small countries?
Everything the EU does, normally takes years and years to negotiation as all decisions have to take into account all the self interest of each of the 28 countries. The Uk can negotiate good deals that would never pass the EU28 and it could do so in a much shorter time.

mrginge

Good to see Labour warning that the Tories will have a 'bonfire of rights' after a brexit. However, I'm not sure that a wafer-thin majority and a three year timescale is conducive to such actions though,

Personally, I'd rather see an opposition party that actually wanted to win future general elections rather than just chucking the towel in.
Thank god they have Neil kinnock (failed UK politician and EU commissioner) to tell us how great his bosses are and how much he enjoys being paid to do eff all every day.

The future for labour's really looking good now that they've abandoned their traditional, working-class supporters and alienated anyone over 50 in favour of currying favour with a load of ideological students and other 'young people' who, once the reality of actual life kicks in will abandon them in a heartbeat.

TrickyTree83

mrginge wrote: »

Good to see Labour warning that the Tories will have a 'bonfire of rights' after a brexit. However, I'm not sure that a wafer-thin majority and a three year timescale is conducive to such actions though,

Personally, I'd rather see an opposition party that actually wanted to win future general elections rather than just chucking the towel in.
Thank god they have Neil kinnock (failed UK politician and EU commissioner) to tell us how great his bosses are and how much he enjoys being paid to do eff all every day.

The future for labour's really looking good now that they've abandoned their traditional, working-class supporters and alienated anyone over 50 in favour of currying favour with a load of ideological students and other 'young people' who, once the reality of actual life kicks in will abandon them in a heartbeat.

I'm so happy to see that someone else thinks Labour have got it wrong.

I used to vote Lib Dem, then I grew up and got a job.