If we vote for Brexit what happens

Filo25

Conrad wrote: »

At Heywood and Middleton byelections in 2015 Labour lost 7,000 votes and UKIP gained 10,000. Even though Labour try to spin it otherwise that is a quantum shift.

I think Labour are deluding themselves if they think UKIP isn't be an issue for them in some of their more working class seats.

Of course the problem for UKIP is what is the point of UKIP if we actually leave the EU, that is the primary goal of the party achieved, what becomes their purpose then to continue to make them relevant.

michaels

Filo25 wrote: »

I think Labour are deluding themselves if they think UKIP isn't be an issue for them in some of their more working class seats.

Of course the problem for UKIP is what is the point of UKIP if we actually leave the EU, that is the primary goal of the party achieved, what becomes their purpose then to continue to make them relevant.

You might say the same about the snp....

CLAPTON

michaels wrote: »

Don't be so silly - it would be completely impossible for the EU to have a free trade agreement with Turkey nor visa free travel, cheap flights, reciprocal health care arrangements etc etc without there also being freedom of movement in both directions....

I don't understand you
'full access' obviously includes free movement of people in the concext of 'fearmongering'

gfplux

Conrad wrote: »

Sure, this is the standard narrative, and I get why people are taken with it, but things are not set in stone in this regard, especially when it comes to negotiating with your biggest customer (us), which will have an epic trade deal with its Commonwealth. Again recognise we are a very large market for certain EU nations such as France (don't fall for Camerons 'we're only 8% of EU trade' as that underplays the importance of us to France and others)


Plus we could team up with the Swiss and Norwegians and put new terms on the table.


There are other possibilities. Maybe I'd even settle (for now) for a Norway deal, but I'm almost certain we'd do better than this


It comes down to how much confidence you have in us as deal makers and cunning manipulators. Personally I have 'epic' confidence.

Nice to know you have thie confidence in our leaders who will suddenly become super negotiators.

Unlike you I do not live in the UK and from where I live close to the "big two" France and Germany any suggestions of

1) teaming up with Norway and Switzeland to broker a better deal
Or
2) on our own getting a better deal than Norway

Is frankly (ridiculous)
Sorry Frankly unlikely.

Filo25

michaels wrote: »

You might say the same about the snp....

You might indeed!

In many ways losing that referendum was the best thing that happened to the SNP.

I suppose for UKIP, they would be able to leverage something from a Brexit vote which ends in EEA membership and no real further controls on immigration.

gfplux

Interesting take by a Luxembourger on Brexit


http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/03/luxembourg-britain-brexit-referendum-eu

All eyes are on Britain. The burgeoning Brexit claims by Eurosceptic backbenchers and politicians pursuing hidden agendas have not only fed the looming threat of EU fragmentation, they have also sapped investors’ confidence and led them to postpone their strategic decisions over the past few months.

TrickyTree83

mwpt wrote: »

I'm sure you can work out or read the threads on why Greece is in such a mess. Us staying in the EU or out the EU won't change that.

I'm waiting for GDP figures showing how the EU has been harmful to newly joined members as you guys have stated. Should be easy to produce and I'll willingly admit I'm wrong if they show a strong correlation with EU membership and worse GDP / living standards.

Reading this article about Eastern European members of the EU and their economy suggests that the GDP and living standards increased due to massive borrowing after adopting the Euro. It took a massive hit in the financial crash circa 2008 and is struggling to recover and appears to have led to a population crisis due to emigration from those states.

http://easterneuropeeconomy.blogspot.co.uk/2011/08/eastern-european-growth-coming-rapidly.html#more

Hungary is a good one to look at, they were experiencing steady growth for many years before joining, then borrowed their way to growth after joining and after the crash have managed to run a budget surplus but nothing is working there. Exports and GDP are stagnant, retail sales are steadily falling, Construction output is falling and consumption is falling.

Another interesting country to look at within that article is Bulgaria where although they too borrowed their way to growth since 2007 construction and retail are steadily falling, consumption has rallied but is stagnant which in the overall seems like a blessing it would seem. And ultimately GDP is falling since the pre-EU days.

Similar trends can be seen with the Czech Republic and Romania,

michaels

gfplux wrote: »

Interesting take by a Luxembourger on Brexit


http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/03/luxembourg-britain-brexit-referendum-eu

All eyes are on Britain. The burgeoning Brexit claims by Eurosceptic backbenchers and politicians pursuing hidden agendas have not only fed the looming threat of EU fragmentation, they have also sapped investors’ confidence and led them to postpone their strategic decisions over the past few months.

Luxembourg benefits from the EU!

Next we will be getting revelations on the Pope's religion and what bears do in the woods....

michaels

Mee wrote: »

I think it would be helpful if those who scapegoat the EU re: immigration would familiarise themselves with the facts and 'our' own government's role in post-2004 immigration. Worth reading reading the introduction of Polish Emigration to the UK after 2004 why Did So Many Come?

Pretty sad for Poland that when they joined the EU and should have been benefiting from catch-up growth, their brightest and best were all moving to the UK and doing jobs below their educational level because UK pay rates for low skill jobs exceed those for skilled workers in Poland. Also bad news for low skilled workers in the UK of course.

Now we have an Eastern European diaspora of course it makes us even more attractive to new migrants and English being the world's second tongue makes it easier for them to settle here than elsewhere in Europe.

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

Interesting take by a Luxembourger on Brexit


http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/03/luxembourg-britain-brexit-referendum-eu

All eyes are on Britain. The burgeoning Brexit claims by Eurosceptic backbenchers and politicians pursuing hidden agendas have not only fed the looming threat of EU fragmentation, they have also sapped investors’ confidence and led them to postpone their strategic decisions over the past few months.

what hidden agendas are they?